General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat's going on with the polls in Beto-Cruz race? Wasn't it close? Now Beto just 20% chance of win?!
JI7
(89,264 posts)that's why red state republicans have gone up .
manor321
(3,344 posts)Never underestimate how disgusting Republican voters are.
msongs
(67,441 posts)nycbos
(6,038 posts)Which such a wide margin in the Governors race the Senate race was never going to be close. Despite the money Beto never had a chance. The best we can hope for is that he can bring some of the targeted congressional seats overlain.
inwiththenew
(972 posts)Maybe in a closer Governor's race but not this.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)We are working super hard down here and it's nothing but enthusiasm for Beto
bluestarone
(17,030 posts)My hats off to all the work you DEMS are doing!!!
Lady_Chat
(561 posts)it's appreciated!
JudyM
(29,274 posts)Jersey Devil
(9,874 posts)He has something like 3 times the money that Cruz has and I would bet the last 3 weeks are going to be nonstop Beto on Texas TV.
Igel
(35,356 posts)Take The NBC/Marist poll from late August. It said that the voters in Texas were nearly split, 49-45 (advantage Cruz).
Read the fine print and that's including those who are "leaning" to one or the other, however weakly. 6% undecided when asked if they had any leaning.
The Emerson poll from about a week later had Cruz up by 1%, the MOE being over 4%. So "neck-and-neck" (when we need to include the MOE). But if you actually pay attention, it was 39 Cruz, 38 O'Rourke. 33% of the electorate wasn't in either camp, but the Emerson poll didn't follow up with the equivalent of "so, in a pinch, who'd you think you'd vote for if you had to vote, and the election was today?"
And that was in August, 2 months ago, and people weren't really paying attention too much since then. Hence the "33% are undecided" from the Emerson poll. Since then there's been Kavanaugh; O'Rourke's background's a bit better know, his "I crashed while drunk, and only really admitted to driving while a bit inebriated" news story broke, and it looks like affluenza to those not disposed.
Mostly the undecideds are saying who they've decided for. Now, whether the models that the pollsters are using are anything close to reality, that's another question. Remember, raw poll numbers are pretty much trash unless the sample is very, very large and demonstrably random. When you poll 1000 people, you then have to put their demographics into the sausage-machine called a "model" and see how the various weightings--all of them based on assumptions about the future, and mostly based on the past--change things. A poll of a 1000 people is only okay unweighted if the total population is maybe 1050-1100, and even then you have to make sure that nobody's left out in a systematic way; or, if the people are pre-selected based on the model, so you do your weighting before you ask the questions.
uponit7771
(90,363 posts)... votes during 16.
Now Beto's reach is larger than Clinton's in 16 so the sampling data for LV has to change also and I don't see that in the latest polling seeing the NYT poll over sampled white males which usually do turn out in Texas.
I think this will be tight
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Undecided voters suck. Always have, always will.
Azathoth
(4,611 posts)There hasn't been a single poll that didn't have Cruz in the lead, and there have only been a handful of scattered polls with Beto in striking distance.
The truth is, in most election cycles we wouldn't be talking about this race as being in play. It's just that everyone, including Republicans, expect Democrats to outperform the polls. And Beto himself has been a surprisingly strong candidate.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)JCMach1
(27,572 posts)the pathetic 30% turnout that is normal for TX...
You can disregard the polls because of this... It's about executing the game plan at this point.
Kajun Gal
(1,907 posts)BlueStater
(7,596 posts)bluestarone
(17,030 posts)Can a RECOUNT be trusted here in Texas? (I'm sure there will be one)
Polybius
(15,476 posts)Has a recount ever overturned a Senate race?
blogslut
(38,016 posts)We'll see how it all plays out.
Meanwhile, Beto has offices in almost every town with a population over 10,000. He's physically been to every district in the state, often repeatedly. He's got phone bankers and block walkers. His ground game is solid.
TexasBushwhacker
(20,214 posts)Beto also had $4M more cash on hand at the end of Q2. Beto better start spending on some serious ad time.
JI7
(89,264 posts)to getting their shit nominees.
blogslut
(38,016 posts)Kavanaugh got sworn in so, many wingnuts think they've already won. I could be very wrong but I think the enthusiasm on the right is dissipating.
JI7
(89,264 posts)and just knowing how important control of senate is.
in some places where trump's trade policies are hurting them like missouri there has not been as much of a bump as other states.
so it will be what is in their mind when they vote.
blogslut
(38,016 posts)I don't believe the majority of voters are that forward thinking.
JI7
(89,264 posts)usually fucked up shit.
BlueTsunami2018
(3,503 posts)Beto is a great story and would be a great senator but this is Texas were talking about. Id love to be wrong about this but unfortunately, they really like assholes there.
JI7
(89,264 posts)and enough new voters that may be underlooked to put Beto over the top.