NV: A one-day blue wave -- aberration or harbinger?

[RandySF]

A one-day blue wave — aberration or harbinger?

It was a big day for the Democrats on Saturday, the first of 14 days of early voting, which generally makes up 60 percent of the vote.

Turnout in Clark County was near-presidential year levels, with 30,000 voters turning out and Democrats winning by about 4,500 votes: 14,735-10,210. That’s 48 percent to 33 percent, which means Democrats were 6 percent above their registration and Republicans were 4 percent above theirs.

So the Democrats, who need to build a firewall in Clark, have a 4,500-vote lead. In contrast, in 2014, that lead after the first day was nonexistent, signaling a red wave. There was no southern firewall in 2014, so the Republicans swept everything. Turnout also was a third of what it was this year. 2018 is not 2014.

Perhaps the even bigger news was in Washoe County, where Republicans have a 2 percent registration edge, but the Democrats won 49-34: 3,409-2,365. That never happens in Washoe.

So in the urban counties, the Democrats amassed a 5,500-vote lead on the first day. That is a big number for a midterm election, albeit only one day of data.

Absentee ballots amassed during the last few weeks in Clark and Washoe, helped cut into that Dem lead. In Clark, it’s a 400-ballot lead for the GOP and in Washoe, it’s a 550-ballot lead.

So the actual early/mail lead for the Dems in the urban counties is about 4,500. My guess is after all of the first day data is in, the Dems will have a 4,000-voter lead or so.

Much of that lead, though, will evaporate with absentee ballots, where the GOP will have a 3,000-vote or more lead statewide. Those numbers will slow down now, but worth keeping an eye on.

Not all of the rurals are in, but those numbers seem relatively normal so far. Fun fact of the day: On the day President Donald Trump did a rally in Elko to rev up the base, drawing an estimated 8,000-plus, only 435 people voted in Elko County, 250 of them Republicans.


https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

[LBM20]

1. GOTV GOTV GOTV VOTE VOTE VOTE for the next 16 days!!!

[libdem4life]

2. We'll take Any Good News...it's infectious. n/t

[grantcart]

3. Ralston is the best

[Wellstone ruled]

4. Nevada is in a major change as to who will

or will not Represent our State in Washington as well as Carson City. The Old Guard Pioneer Families are being replaced by the new more progressive mover-inners. Just a thought,Nevada Represented by two Female Senators,think about it,and if one looks at Nevada's History,major sweeping out the Old Guard who expected to have these positions handed to them.

The major thing that is happening is the mega ugly attack ads. Adelson is spending millions on these totally false ads. And one of those Old Guard people named Laxhalt was busted yesterday for hiding a DUI arrest form the Lawyer Review Board. The Local Media has said nothing about this. Of Course,2 out of 4 TV stations are owned by Sinclair,another by Scripps-Howard and the Major Newspaper in the State is owned by Adelson and that paper is wall to wall pushing the Rethug Candidates.