Informal poll - 1-10 scale- how confident are you for November?

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

10 being blue, super duper mega tsunami and 1 being it all goes to crap and hope is lost

[dweller]

1. 10 + 1

10 for the turnout
1 for the MSM media reports

[2020_vision]

6. 50-50

I am surrounded by red, everyone I work with is a Trump supporter. Out of a community of a little over 12,000 people I think we might have 25 democrats living here.

No one is really talking much here in fact. I know about 8 of my coworkers (all Trump supporters) Aren't even worried about voting because they are solid sure the red wave will be the flavor of election day.

Instead, they are taking the 5th, 6th, and 7th off for some hunting trip for dove, grouse and turkey. Best kind of rethug voters are the ones who don't show up.

[grantcart]

2. 7.5

We take the house with 55 pickup seats

We stay at 49 in the Senate

There are 4 big upsets 3 for us and one against us.

[murielm99]

3. I agree with you.

I am hoping for 60 in the House. The Senate? I'm not getting my hopes up.

[Demovictory9]

4. 6.6

[RandySF]

5. 8.6

[jcgoldie]

24. I see what you did there

[elocs]

7. I'd rather see the Left vote like we think the outcome is still in doubt

rather than be overconfident that a Blue Wave and recapturing the House is a done deal.
Because if the Blue Wave is just a splash there will be some explaining to do, egg on faces, and crow to eat.

[lastlib]

19. THIS!!

Remember the theft of 2016--GET OUT AND VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT!!! Because it does! WE NEED ALL HANDS!

[BigmanPigman]

8. 50/50

[Wintryjade]

9. I think we have the votes. They cheat and steal and have become very blatant with no repercussions.

So, I cannot even scale my confidence. Cheating and stealing brings on a whole other story.

[Bettie]

18. That is where I set as well

if we're allowed to vote and have the votes counted, we win.

But will that happen? If it does, will it be allowed to stand? After all the SCOTUS is now a rubber stamp for that orange thing.

[James48]

10. 3

We only have a chance if EVERY dem turns out. Unlikely.

I have lost faith in most Americans.

[RhodeIslandOne]

11. 1. Nothing for granted

Always run like you’re ten points behind.

[Cicada]

12. 7.0

[VOX]

13. 1, just like RhodeIslandOne above me, and for the same reason.

I’m not being negative, honestly. It’s just my peculiar way of processing the increasing tonnage of incoming information dropped by the media prior to the election.

I keep myself somewhat sane by not taking one damned thing for granted before the polls finally close. If I just keep it in the moment, encourage others to do the right thing and vote (and not be complacent myself), I just handle it whole thing better.

[OnDoutside]

14. 6.5 It would have been 10 but for what happened in 2016. Still though, I'm trying to look at it

logically.

18+ months of fantastic wins in Special Elections
18+ months of a rising disgust at Trump and the GOP
18+ months of Republicans trying to take people's healthcare away
The likes of Kornacki believe that this is going to be a split election but if Dems are going to get 55+ seats, it must have some effect on the Senate.

[beachbum bob]

15. a 10, we take the house by a huge margin and squeak to taking the senate

[sinkingfeeling]

16. 1 or less.

[dawg]

22. Username checks out.

[LincolnRossiter]

17. 8. I think the House is in the bag and the we still have a chance at the Senate. BUT VOTE!

Offer to bus some older folks from the local community center or church. Get your kids engaged (and encourage them to engage with their friends).

The backlash to Trump and Trumpism is almost three years in the making. Don't squander it. Let's show people that we're better than this.

[Amishman]

20. House? 10/10. Senate? 2/10.

My exact prediction is we take the house and it ends up 230 - 205 I think the right wingers being fired up puts a cap on potential net gains around 40 seats as geography and demographics of districts comes into play. I also think we have a net gain of 25 seats at absolute minimum

Senate I see no change . I see a win in AZ and NV, a loss in ND, and losing one of FL, MO, IN. Same logic, we have increasing political segregation by geography, which puts a cap on potential gains. With such an unfavorable Senate map, no net loss is a win IMO.

[dawg]

21. 8 for the House. 2 for the Senate.

4 for Stacey Abrams, hopefully my next Governor.

(It's a terrible map for us in the Senate this time. 2020 will be much better.)

[Adrahil]

23. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, but...

I fear this:

[img][/img]

[davekriss]

25. 2

...but I tend toward pessimism before an election.

[redstatebluegirl]

26. 5

[qazplm135]

27. 7.341 for the House

3.274 for the Senate.


I rounded a bit...some quantum effects that make the exact percentages a little fuzzy.

[muntrv]

28. 8.

[UTUSN]

29. 4-. The wingnuts are energized by the immigrant "invasion", besides KAVANaught

[Demsrule86]

30. 10 +

[kentuck]

31. Would "Cautiously Optimistic" be a 4 or a 6?

[vlyons]

32. I'm at about an 8

We'll take the House with about 20 to 30 seats, which will be enough to counter any attempt to call fraud. It will also be more than enough to put Dems in all the committee chairs and start hearings. Lots of hearings. And don't forget, post election enables Mueller to proceed with indictments and on to the report.

There will be dancing in the street.

[vi5]

33. 2 at most.

For a variety of reasons. Republicans are sneaky. Voter suppression. And while we have some good scattered candidates with spunk, I'm just not seeing a lot of street fighters and that's what we need across the board.

And I'm just seeing a lot of repeat patterns that temper my optimism. Literally every major election since 2004 with Bush's re-election I've seen posts about "OMG early voting is through the roof!! It's breaking records!!!" and that ends up not meaning anything at all.

I hope I'm wrong.