TX-22: Olson moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
The rapidly growing southwest Houston suburbs are undergoing a rapid demographic shift: the 22nd CD, once held by Tom DeLay, is now just 40 percent white (down from 45 percent in 2010) and voted for President Trump by just 52 percent to 44 percent, a third of Mitt Romney's 25 point margin in 2012. It's 26 percent Hispanic, 19 percent Asian and 12 percent black, and and 43 percent of adults hold college degrees, among the highest in the state.
Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni embodies this transformation. The Indian-American former foreign service officer and aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand grew up in Fort Bend County, attended UT-Austin and Harvard's Kennedy School and speaks six languages. His $1 million raised won't buy him Houston broadcast TV, but his campaign is conducting outreach in 13 languages and won the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle, which has backed Olson in the past.
Moreover, Olson hasn't had a competitive race since 2008, was outraised $578,000 to $319,000 in the third quarter and had just $312,000 on hand at the end of September. GOP colleagues praise his outreach to ethnic groups, but he was caught on tape complaining about running against an "Indo-American carpetbagger." And, private polls show Olson still isn't well-known or defined. That's potentially dangerous in a wave, especially if Democrat Beto O'Rourke carries the district.
The expense of the Houston market means this race will largely play out on cable television and. Kulkarni's biggest obstacle is the gerrymandered nature of the district: Hillary Clinton carried Fort Bend County, but in 2011 Republican mapmakers drew its most Democratic precincts into the 9th CD. Kulkarni believes the campaign's efforts to register immigrant communities to vote are a game-changer. There's still reason to be skeptical, but this sleeper race is intensifying.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising
SRI PRESTON KULKERNI
https://www.kulkarniforcongress.com
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