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realmirage

(2,117 posts)
Tue Oct 23, 2018, 02:58 PM Oct 2018

No, this new House battleground poll is NOT good news for Republicans

These stupid statements that the polls are tightening are classic examples of idiots who don't understand statistics, math, or polling. The numbers have not changed. The only thing that has changed is that the new poll asks the question differently to give the appearance of a shift in support.

"These are seats that, in the main, Republicans, in anything close to a status quo national political environment, would have very little worry about winning. That these districts are even marginally competitive speaks to the tilt of the playing field; that the Democratic candidates have a lead -- albeit a narrow one -- shows just how difficult this environment still is for Republicans.

One other point worth considering here: The 3-point Democratic edge is statistically unchanged from the 50%-46% advantage in these 69 districts that the Post-Schar poll found in the beginning of this month. Also unchanged is the fact that women are the reason for Democrats' lead; women went for the Democratic candidate by 15 points in the earlier poll and favor the Democratic candidates by 13 points -- 55% to 42% -- in this latest survey."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/washington-post-poll-swing-districts/index.html

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