Why are the Dems doing so well in FL? I have ideas, but can others please enlighten me.

[LBM20]

It seems:

1) People there may just be ready for a change in Gov. and tired of Scott so don't want him for Sen.

2) People really like Gillum. The guy just seems so genuine and likable. Kind of an Obama type figure who appeals across all lines and is able to put together an Obama-type coalition.

3) The red tide thing is hurting Scott and the R's.

4) Healthcare is huge in FL, and we are winning big on that issue.

5) Climate change. We believe in it, and people are finally seeing it's bad effects. The tide, no pun intended, is really turning our way on that issue which is huge for FL.

Anything else?

[nolabear]

1. There is an enormous black, Latino and gay community in Florida.

The rednecks tend to suck up all the air but those who have never been would be surprised.

And Margery Stoneman Douglas. Those kids didn’t come out of nowhere, and they have supporters.

[LBM20]

2. Yup. Broad coalition and lower-frequency voters are engaged.

[MaryMagdaline]

3. Red Tide etc

1. It's hit a lot of Republican areas. It is on both coasts. It is directly tied to Rick Scott.

2. Gillum * has enthusiasm from younger voters. New blood. (I have a feeling they are not undercounting the AA vote as much as they usually do in polling)

3. Gun violence * highly motivated South Floridians. Gillum faced off with NRA in court

4. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, pre-existing conditions. Safer with Nelson and Gillum (Gillum wants to expand Medicaid); Nelson has always protected benefits. A few older Republicans will always vote for Nelson.

[In It to Win It]

22. Ironically, I saw one of the Parkland parents on an ad

Endorsing Rick Scott for signing watered down gun legislation.

[peekaloo]

23. That gentleman has been with Scott since the shooting.

I believe he also went to the White House.

[bearsfootball516]

4. I think 2, 3 and 4 are the biggest.

The Democratic party, which isn't always great with messaging and the quippy one-liners, have absolutely drilled Florida with "Red-Tide Rick", and it's been massively effective. He's completely tied to it, and he can't separate himself.

I agree about Gillum being so likable, and yeah, he's very Obama-esque. The guy may have a presidential bid in the future if he wants.

[ms liberty]

5. He wants to legalize pot

They have medicinal, which is pretty new, but he wants ro go full legal with it. I am watching with interest; I grew up in Fla.

[monmouth4]

6. Gillum is just so likeable and even the repubs in my bldg. are going to vote for him. I think many

of them voted for Obama also but kept it to themselves...LOL.

[Amishman]

7. Puerto Ricans which fled after the hurricane

Puerto Rico has long been heavily supportive of the party, and upwards of 100,000 relocated to FL after the hurricane

[Nictuku]

30. +1

[mercuryblues]

33. they and their relatives are pissed

about the response to that hurricane. Now the one the one that just hit Fl and a poor response from FEMA on that.


Nelson is crushing Scott with ads. His involvement in Columbia Health ripping off Medicare and inflating/making up charges for medical services that the government reimbursed. Oh and that red tide thingie.


Fl also has a lot of retirees. many are not happy with the proposed cuts to Social Security.

[Tiggeroshii]

8. Andrew Gillum and his coattails.

Nuff said

[Funtatlaguy]

9. DeSantis is a bigot with no charisma and no policy ideas.

[Blue_true]

10. A combination of the last 4.

Gillum comes off as forward looking and competent. But the past record of Scott and DeSantis have hurt the claims that they are now making. Trump is trying to distort the picture, he just rushed released money for nutrient abatement of nutrient rich water from farms, sewage treatment plants, housing development. The problem is that people have seen Scott's and DeSantis' attacks on science based policy and their attempts to stack advisory groups with representatives of polluters and they have seen the increasing negative economic impact of what Scott and DeSantis have done. The recent statements by McConnell on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid don't help Scott and DeSantis at all, millions of Floridians depend on the three programs. While Florida is a big state population wise, it is also a state with massive income inequality, there are lots of people making good money here, but there are lots and lots of really poor people, one need to only drive on the road and look at vehicles to see that, or drive through the different neighborhoods.

[LBM20]

18. PLAY THIS AD LIKE HELL IN FL!! (SEE LINK)

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/10/24/republicans-will-cut-your-social-security-medicare-and-medicaid-benefits

[nycbos]

11. Take nothing for granted.

The only poll that maters is the one on Election Day.


Canvass, Make phone calls.

[LBM20]

12. YES! GOTV GOTV GOTV!!

[GulfCoast66]

13. He has reassembled Obama's collation

I admit now my support for Gwen in the Primary was not the best move. Which is embarrassing since I have for 2 years talked on DU about how African Americans are the base of our party in Florida.

And DeSantis is as likable as the flu. Plus he was exposed tonight as a racist for all to see. I know several Putnam supporters who are either sitting it out or voting for Gillum.

This 53 year old white guy is super excited about having Florida’s first Black Governor.

But it is not a done deal!!

We must VOTE!

[peekaloo]

25. I like how Gillum doesn't appear rattled when DeSantis tries to trip him up.

For someone who likes to boast about his Ivy League creds DeSantis doesn't seem too sharp.

[FreeRunning]

14. Because Gillum articulates hope...

I think, anyway.

[LBM20]

16. Hope is good, but education, healthcare, and jobs are better. I think he's doing well on those.

[beachbum bob]

15. GOP planned benefit cuts to social security and Medicare, along with cuts

to Medicaid..all issues with the largest voting block in Florida...the over 55. McConnel goof is giving us Florida and Arizona and making possible in Texas and Tennessee. All states with significant retirees.

[LBM20]

17. HOPE THIS AD IS RUNNING IN FL: https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/10/24/republicans-will-cut-y

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/10/24/republicans-will-cut-your-social-security-medicare-and-medicaid-benefits

[FloridaBlues]

19. We locals are reaching out more this time and plus the dems are finally coming forward

That's what we see on the ground here. They finally came off the couches to help us contact voters.
Personally I been waiting 18 yrs for this to happen even after I ran for office.

[MiniMe]

20. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security

[sarcasmo]

21. Red Tide Rick has helped the Democratic party even more than Trump.

[WeekiWater]

24. We are a sorry ass electorate...

With an "acceptable" democratic machine at the helm. They screw up as often as they do good but they keep trying their asses off. Lord do I appreciate the work they do.

Our minority groups are growing leaps and bounds and outside of some areas in the south they trend heavily democratic. They are making great ground for us. They seem to be growing at a greater rate than new retirees moving down.

That said, I'm not seeing us doing all that well. The fact that Gillum / Deshitface is even a race is sad. And Scott being so close after turning a blind eye to big sugar and destroying ecosystems is horrifying. Floridians actually do like the amazing ecosystems of the state.

We have also had a history of having difficulty driving Democrats to the polls. This article is from this morning. Democrats in many areas of FL seem to stay demoralized. We are getting better but it's happening slowly. I appreciate Obama throwing his weight around in our state. He is a GOTV machine.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/25/in-state-house-district-63-they-register-democrat-and-vote-republican/

Republicans currently hold the great trifecta in Florida. Governor, state house and state senate. Those things make a huge difference in elections. Hopefully Trump will suppress the Republican vote. The trifecta makes things more difficult for the opposition party in damn near all 26 states that are currently in that position.

20% of the population lives under a Democratic trifecta. 48% of the population lives under a Republican trifecta. Those numbers are pulled from the population as a whole. 31% live under a divided government. The importance of this power cannot be understated.

Florida is currently ranked as one of the best opportunities in the country to break a Republican trifecta.

[PubliusEnigma]

26. I hope it's the 300,000 Puerto Rican refugees with voting rights. Wouldn't that be pure poetry?

[Mojo2]

27. Debbie Downer

I have been through this before in Florida, where everything looks great a few weeks from the election and then we lose. What we need is everyone to keep battling, Get Out the Vote, volunteer time canvassing or phone banking, don't take things for granted right now.

[Cousin Dupree]

28. 6. Increasing numbers of northern Dems have moved to Fla and are changing the electorate

[Scoopster]

29. Stoneman Douglas

The survivors of Parkland & their families have become insanely politically active, and have been pushing youth engagement & voting registration for over a year now. I'm positive that it's having a noticeable effect.

[TwistOneUp]

31. Shhh! Don't jinx it!... nt

[MaryMagdaline]

32. Gillum's plan to raise teacher pay is a good plan

He is not afraid to be specific … 50,000.00 is the threshold. Too many politicians are too shy about how much for minimum wage, ,how much for teacher salaries. Gillum is right up front. He is a proud liberal.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. The New York Times interactive polls are not accurate toward statewide Florida

I'm out of state on vacation and admittedly not paying much attention. But if threads like this source from the huge leads by Scott and Gillum in the ongoing New York Times live polling, people following those polls are simply being suckered and fooled.

Those are not representative numbers...not even close. Once vote totals start coming in on election night the races will be very tight. I don't have to follow polls to understand that. As always I prefer big picture foundational realities over day to day flimsy nonsense. Florida is balanced in ideological terms and Republicans maximize their opportunity with superb voter outreach and overall operations. I know that because I have one sister who is a registered Republican and aunt who switched from Obama to Trump along with changing her registration to Republican. I see the stacks of mailers they receive. They tell me about all the phone calls. I see the waves of Republican volunteers going door to door in my neighborhood every cycle.

That's the reason Republicans have actually gained ground in registration numbers in Florida since November 2016. That should not be possible with a president stuck in mid 30s to low 40s approval throughout. We are very fortunate that Republicans in other states are not as well organized and relentless as in Florida. When I lived in Las Vegas the realities were just the opposite...the Democratic outreach superiority there resembled the GOP advantage in Florida.

For whatever reason those New York Times polls quickly reach pro-blue voters in Florida races. Donna Shalala is my district...FL-27. The first night of New York Times polling recently had her ahead 58-30. That was preposterous. I mentioned on Predictit that the margin was bogus and would tighten. It did, down to Shalala with a 7 point edge at conclusion.

These statewide New York Times interactive polls are similarly picking up too much of a blue slant.

[OnDoutside]

35. My brother is in a red county and not even the republicans there like Scott.