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Mon Oct 29, 2018, 05:54 PM

Good news regarding younger voters

For what it's worth:


https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/574141/

A Harvard poll suggests that midterm turnout among Millennial and Generation Z voters could be historically high. Its findings, released Monday morning, may signal that the spike in Millennial political involvement that began after the 2016 election of Donald Trump hasn’t lost steam in the past two years. Other recent data indicate that this engagement transcends typical political activity. “We’re starting to notice that the personal is political,” said Mari Jones, a Harvard student who helped run the poll. “Big events in American politics cause young people to think about politics differently.”

The survey, from the university’s Institute of Politics (IOP), found that 40 percent of young people ages 18 to 29 said they would “definitely vote” in the upcoming midterm elections. Historically, the biannual poll is off by high single digits from actual youth turnout. But if just 22 percent of this group votes, it would be the highest midterm turnout for young voters in at least 32 years. According to IOP’s director of polling, John Della Volpe, in the past three decades youth-voter turnout has only hit 21 percent twice—in 1986 and 1994. To Della Volpe, the potential turnout is starting to look more like it did in the 2016 presidential election than it did during the last midterms, in 2014.

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Good news regarding younger voters (Original post)
MaryMagdaline Oct 2018 OP
John Fante Oct 2018 #1
Renew Deal Oct 2018 #2
MaryMagdaline Oct 2018 #3
Freddie Oct 2018 #4
Blue_true Oct 2018 #7
MaryMagdaline Oct 2018 #8
NastyRiffraff Oct 2018 #5
Blue_true Oct 2018 #6
Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #9
MaryMagdaline Oct 2018 #11
BlueDog22 Oct 2018 #10

Response to MaryMagdaline (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 05:58 PM

1. They favor a democratic congress by +34 points.

Gump's approval rating with this group is 26%.

If 40% vote (I'll believe it when I see it) the GOP's worst nightmare will have finally materialized.

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Response to John Fante (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 06:03 PM

2. Their worst nightmare is these people voting in 2018

And 2020

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Response to John Fante (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 06:16 PM

3. According to the survey, even 22% would be a 30+ year record

Last edited Mon Oct 29, 2018, 09:36 PM - Edit history (1)

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Response to MaryMagdaline (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 06:29 PM

4. My 28 yo son just early voted in Florida

Got his girlfriend to vote for the first time ever! Straight D of course.

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Response to Freddie (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 06:42 PM

7. Great. nt

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Response to Freddie (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 07:02 PM

8. Thanks, Freddie! thank you to your son and his gf

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Response to MaryMagdaline (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 06:31 PM

5. EXCELLENT news!

They'll be voters for life. When I voted on Thursday, I saw a lot of young people, many with babies. One of them was in line behind me and she said she's so excited about voting Republicans out of Congress.

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Response to MaryMagdaline (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 06:38 PM

6. I was just on an early voting tracking site.

(This in not an ad, the site is good and free if you want that)

Jamieduprer.blog.ajc.com AJC for short

Don't know whether the blogger is a man or woman, but the person gave early voting breakdowns for Tennesssee, Georgia, Texas, Minnesota, Maryland

In Tennessee early voting in up over 2014, with heavy traffic around Memphis.

In Georgia, 1.1 million early votes have been cast, the same time in 2014 was just over 400,000. Looks like lots of new non-white voters are causing the surge.

In Texas there is a surge in new voters and young voters compared to 2014. Lots of activity around San Antonio.

In North Carolina early voting is near presidential year levels. Dems are ahead but repugs have been narrowing the gap. The good news here, is that more progressive voters tend to vote later. Maybe republicans are punched out and still behind.

In Maryland early voting is above 2014 levels, with heavy voting in the DC suburbs.

So, look like things are not as bad as some Debbie downers that post more recently seem to be pushing. The thing is that republican voters maxed out in 2014 and 2016, lots of our voters sat at home or wasted vote on third party. But this year, our people seem to be coming out, with what I think is our best yet to come.

Would be nice to get new numbers out of Florida and Nevada, but the last report from Florida was that democrats had pretty much closed an early repug advantage, with Souls to the Polls not yet taken into account.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 08:16 PM

9. Very disappointing turnout numbers so far for young voters in Florida

 

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2018/10/29/26m-have-voted-what-the-electorate-looks-like-miami-man-maga-bomber-lock-him-up-puerto-rico-statehood-and-fla-335050

"THE YOUNG PEOPLE WILL ... STAY HOME? — Remember all that talk of how “the young people will win” and come out in force in Florida, especially after the Parkland massacre? So far, it’s not happening. Voters between the ages of 18-29 are 17 percent of the registered voters in Florida but have only cast 5 percent of the ballots so far. They tend to vote more Democratic. Meanwhile, voters 65 and older are 18.4 percent of the electorate but have cast 51.4 percent of the ballots. And older voters tend to vote more Republican."



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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 09:35 PM

11. Andrew Gillum on Rachel just now reminded us that we are usually

Down by double digits in EV at this point, and we are down about 4 now. It is frustrating but he’s right, we can easily close the gap.

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Response to MaryMagdaline (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 08:44 PM

10. Turnout Data

The lack of turnout data has got me a little antsy. It's nerve racking going into this election a little blind.

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