Nate: Early look shows Ryan bounce between 0 and 2%

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/aug-14-the-fog-of-polling-and-ryans-bounce-so-far/#more-33192





snip

Public Policy Polling’s weekly national tracking poll, conducted among registered voters, was also released on Tuesday and gave Mr. Obama a two-point lead — the same as his margin last week.

About 30 percent of the interviews in Public Policy Polling’s national poll were conducted after the announcement of Mr. Ryan. If you dig into the cross-tabs of the poll, you can find a break-out of the results they received on each day of the survey. Although the results were highly variable because of the small sample sizes — Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan had a very poor day in their poll on Saturday, but a very good one on Sunday — in the two days combined of post-announcement interviewing, the Republicans trailed Mr. Obama by one percentage point, as compared with two points in the poll overall.

Lastly, three of the seven days of Gallup’s national tracking poll now post-date the announcement of Mr. Ryan. Gallup now shows a slight gain for Mr. Romney — he holds a lead of two percentage points in their poll, versus an exact tie before.

So there’s something of a consensus in the polls, showing a net gain for Mr. Romney of between zero and two percentage points since the announcement of Mr. Ryan.

[russspeakeasy]

1. So it's more of a ryan dribble.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

2. If this holds true, it's pathetic.

Even I expected more, and I've been more pessimistic in that area than a lot of folks.

Honestly, I thought after they spent the weekend getting their message together they'd get a decent spike by Wednesday.

[NYC_SKP]

3. Not half of Sarah's bounce, eh?

Pathetic...

K/R

[Wednesdays]

4. Considering the margin of error...

could the actual number be negative?

[Kalidurga]

5. It probably is..

I seriously doubt he produced a two point bounce. I chat online sometimes and there are known conservatives that have dropped in to chat and said they won't vote for Romney with Ryan on the ticket. I think this is going on nationally on a larger scale. But, who knows maybe people aren't paying attention.