I have this feeling that Democrats are going to sweep Texas

[irresistable]

Gov. Lupe Valdez....I like the sound of that.

[DUgosh]

1. Off to the Greatest Page

Kick and Rec

[manor321]

2. I've heard these things for 20 years

So you can pardon me for being skeptical.

[irresistable]

4. Lupe Valdez was only 8 points back in the latest poll.

The wave in Texas is going to be huge.

[DrDan]

6. you do realize you are talking about Texas . . . .

[irresistable]

8. I live in the reddest part of Texas, and even here there are gatherings of Republican women....

who intend to vote Democrat.

Beto went EVERYWHERE and he will have coattails. It won't actually be close.

[Stallion]

16. Yeah I think Beto might Just Drag 2-3 Representatives with Him

...even if he doesn't win

I could not believe that Lupe Valdez poll that showed her down only -8 in the Governors race when generally she has been down 20 points. Unlike other Democrats in Texas she hasn't had the funding to present much of a campaign. If we see another poll with her within 10 points then that means there is a huge blue wave because unfortunately Abbott has very high approval rate. I'm skeptical about that poll but hope for the best

[irresistable]

23. polls don't capture waves. Waves occur when certain groups drastically outperform expectations...

and this case there are hidden votes....Republican women who are polled with their Trump nut husband at their side do not reveal their vote.

All that the polls are capturing is the discontent within the normal expected voting groups who feel free to express it.

[LeftInTX]

17. I know Republicans who are voting for Beto and also Abbott

They aren't going to vote for Lupe.

These tend to be higher educated types.
Cruz doesn't do his job, he shuts down the govt etc.

Lupe doesn't have much appeal like Beto has.

[irresistable]

22. My belief is that Beto is going to win by a surprising percentage....

and his coattails will be sufficient to put her over the top.

[Stallion]

26. 50.000000001% Would be a Volcanic Percentage

which I'd be perfectly happy with

[Garrett78]

3. Isn't Abbott as likely to win as Newsom is here in Cali?

[irresistable]

5. Every poll puts Valdez closer.

[Texasgal]

15. Please post this information.

I'm not seeing anything close to that anywhere.

[Stallion]

18. RCP Does Have the Recent Emerson -8 Poll but that's Really the Only One that's Close

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_valdez-6435.html

[irresistable]

20. it is the trend that matters, IMO 28 to 43 in two months.

[irresistable]

19. In the Emerson poll, Valdez has moved from 28 to 33 to 43, with the last jump in one month

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_valdez-6435.html#polls

[beachbum bob]

7. Feeling based on what? I sure wish it's more than just hope.

[Blue_true]

10. You have a point.

But, I have to admit to fantasizing about an upset of that magnitude. Governed-elect Valdez and Senator-elect O'Rourke on the same night in Texas would give republicans six months of brutal constipation, like the nothing is moving type.

[Volaris]

12. Ya Texas is the GOPs California...if it goes blue,

It means they have fucked up so bad that theyre about to be a minority party for about 20 yesrs lol.

[irresistable]

25. They have set new standards for fucking up

[Blue_true]

28. A lot of people don't give it credit, but Florida.

The third largest state by population, in the last seven Presidential elections, Democrats have won it four times, republicans barely won it twice (2000, 2016, with pretty much the same dynamics) and republicans have won it cleanly once (2004). I think that Florida is closer to going blue presidentially than Texas is. In state, we Dems have some work to do, but so does Texas.

[irresistable]

14. my impressions are based on local talk of "secret" informal meetings of Republican women.

I've heard news reports of similar meetings in other parts of Texas.

Also, waves are rarely captured by polls, because it is impossible to configure polls to capture something like that.

I also believe that Beto's strategy of going everywhere, will skew the statewide vote.

If parts of Texas that normally go 75 -25 go 58-42, there is no way to capture that in a poll. New voters. which are never captured, are voting in the highest numbers in the country.

That is why I believe.

[irresistable]

31. well, I guess I nailed that one, huh?

....right on the thumb.

[CentralMass]

9. The only problem is that republicans cheat.

[LeftInTX]

11. Show me the poll

Last week's Texas Tribune poll showed her at 35%

OK This is from the Dallas Morning News:
But a recent survey has Valdez closing the gap. A Quinnipiac University poll earlier this week found her trailing Abbott by 14 percentage points, down from 20 percentage points three weeks ago. An Emerson University poll released Thursday found Abbott with a 51-43 lead.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/11/02/underdog-lupe-valdez-approaches-reckoning-greg-abbott-optimism-humor

The odds of her winning are small.

[irresistable]

21. the trend is our friend in both Quinnipiac and Emerson

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_valdez-6435.html#polls

I don't trust a poll with the word 'Dixie" in it.

[thbobby]

13. Texas is blue if we vote!

I have repeatedly told people this, posted it on twitter when I tweeted. Once the blue wave starts, I believe that non-voters will be inspired to participate in the electoral process. So many people I talk to don't vote or think that voting is not important.

[irresistable]

24. we seem to be voting!

[vlyons]

27. Lupe has run a lack luster campaign.

Unfortunately, she did not get the campaign contributions like Beto. So she wasn't able to make as many appearances. I think she would be an infinitely better gov than what the GOP is offering. But we'll just have to wait and see ---

[irresistable]

29. I agree. I think that this is a special moment in history where the world is set right again.

[duforsure]

30. Texas republicans are all in trouble

And losing supporters faster than they'll let on, but its really turning on them quickly from everyone voting against them now.