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Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:13 AM

My Senate map prediction -- looks like it comes down to TX or TN for the win.



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Reply My Senate map prediction -- looks like it comes down to TX or TN for the win. (Original post)
honest.abe Nov 2018 OP
NewJeffCT Nov 2018 #1
honest.abe Nov 2018 #5
genxlib Nov 2018 #2
honest.abe Nov 2018 #6
YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #3
honest.abe Nov 2018 #8
rgbecker Nov 2018 #4
honest.abe Nov 2018 #7
JCMach1 Nov 2018 #9
YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #10
jcgoldie Nov 2018 #11
honest.abe Nov 2018 #14
Tanuki Nov 2018 #19
jcgoldie Nov 2018 #21
Firestorm49 Nov 2018 #12
honest.abe Nov 2018 #13
grantcart Nov 2018 #16
honest.abe Nov 2018 #24
blogslut Nov 2018 #22
Drunken Irishman Nov 2018 #15
grantcart Nov 2018 #20
RhodeIslandOne Nov 2018 #17
vercetti2021 Nov 2018 #18
peggysue2 Nov 2018 #23
D_Master81 Nov 2018 #25
bearsfootball516 Nov 2018 #26

Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:16 AM

1. I'd be happy if Democrats took the House and didn't lose seats in the senate

I'm shocked, to be honest, that we're even talking about the possibility of Dems winning the Senate - with a decent economy, Dems should be looking at losing 5-9 seats with the kind of map they're up against.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:20 AM

5. Yeah, that would be great but without the Senate there could be another Idiot appointed Supreme.

That could be the final nail.

I think there is a real legitimate chance to win back the Senate given the recent polling and news of massive early voting.

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:16 AM

2. If I read your map correctly

You need TX and TN to tie.

That still leaves the Senate deadlocked with Pence casting the tie-breaker.

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Response to genxlib (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:21 AM

6. Nope.. I have 50 without TX or TN (note they are browned out)

Either one gives us 51.

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:17 AM

3. I have naive hope that both flip Blue

I think Texas is more likely than Tennessee but the number of new voters in both states is off the charts.

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Response to YessirAtsaFact (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:23 AM

8. Yep, Texas looks like a real possibility.

Wouldn't it be lovely!

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:19 AM

4. I love your optimism in MO., AZ., Fl., MT n/t.

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Response to rgbecker (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:22 AM

7. Yeah.. have to be or I would jump off a cliff.

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:34 AM

9. Both are breaking D direcection

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #9)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 10:04 AM

10. I'm naively optimistic about both

You have to like the number of new vein both states

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 10:06 AM

11. I agree with your map

Would love for Beto to put us over the top and if so they can have Tennessee.

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:09 AM

14. Beto for the win!

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:27 AM

19. ..."they can have Tennessee." No they can't! I live here and I am still fighting like hell.

Please don't count Phil Bredesen out before the day of November 6 is over! You may be surprised at his support in some groups that have been historically undersampled in the polling. It all comes down to which party can GOTV more effectively, so please don't be dismissive! Marsha Blackburn will vote against everything you stand for and everything you believe in, so think long and hard before you say she can "have" that senate seat.
We are all in this together.

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Response to Tanuki (Reply #19)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:29 AM

21. Sorry

Didn't mean to offend hard working democrats in Tennessee, only meant if someone offered a 51-49 democrat controlled senate right now we'd all take it!

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:05 AM

12. The rigging is already in place for close elections.

Itís called gerrymandering and voter suppression. We wonít win in a state where its a close call.

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Response to Firestorm49 (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:08 AM

13. The gerrymandering and voter suppression wont be enough this time.

The blue tsunami will overwhelm that crap.

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Response to Firestorm49 (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:13 AM

16. Curious how does someone gerrymander a US Senate seat that is decided statewide?

Voter suppression attempts frequently trigger higher voting on the targeted population and that seems to be the case here with record mid term turnout.

The biggest obstacle to massive Democratic victory in mid terms is low Democratic turnout, we suppress ourselves.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #16)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:51 AM

24. Move the state lines I guess..

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Response to Firestorm49 (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:34 AM

22. Gerrymandering doesn't apply in the TX senate race

Whoever gets the most votes wins, unless it's crazy close then a runoff might take place.

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:10 AM

15. I think Democrats eke out wins in NV, AZ, MT, IN and MO...

However, I am not hopeful on Tennessee or Texas. Still, I could see Tennessee going Democratic if I had to pick the most likely of the two.

Sadly, I do not think Beto will carry Texas.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #15)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:27 AM

20. We have a goid chance in both.

The key metric in elections with 20% or higher than normal turnout is negatives by the candidates.

In both TN and TX Cruz and Blackburn both have extremely high negatives and this means that they have an effective ceiling and increased turnout will break against them.

Also undecideds generally break against incumbents.

Finally the latest polls are showing significant breaking towards D, polling after the latest shooting and the repeal of birthright citizenship. We may have reached the final straw for a critical 10% of the population.

I find it very interesting that Trump has returned to Montana 4 times and polls still show Tester ahead.

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:23 AM

17. I'll take my chances with that map at 11PM tomorrow night

 

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:24 AM

18. Beto squeaks out and wins

God please? I'd break down crying if he does.

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Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #18)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:50 AM

23. A lot of us would break down crying because . . .

it would be a political earthquake and a clear indication that the American public, Texans specifically, had voted for our Better Angels, the America we need to be.

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 12:36 PM

25. I'm not sold on Donnelly

I know the polling has been in his favor, but in conservative country thereís Braun signs EVERYWHERE

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Response to D_Master81 (Reply #25)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 01:23 PM

26. I've seen it the other way.

I'm in blood red Elkhart County, and the Donnelly signs here outnumber Braun 10-1.

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