538 - Nate Silver has just predicted a 94% chance of Dems taking the House.

[kstewart33]

Estimated pickup - 43 seats.

Prediction posted at 7:40 pm ET.

UPDATE: It's now at 95%. Also: no change in the Senate.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. Yessssss!!!

[octoberlib]

2. Holy shit!!!!

[johnnyrocket]

3. Not good enough, waiting for 100%.

[appal_jack]

14. Yes: not counting chickens until they hatch...

Keep voting, western Dems!

-app

[llmart]

4. Be still my heart!!!

42 pickups would be wonderful!!!

[OhZone]

5. Coolness

Oh Yeah!

[berni_mccoy]

6. Woohoo!

[spooky3]

7. Wowww! Thx. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Make it 95%

Now let's hold onto the two Florida statewide races

[sweetloukillbot]

9. Senate chances are inching up too

Still pretty narrow, but they've moved up a couple percentage points...

[workinclasszero]

10. Dems running strong so far!!

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Now down to 91.7% and senate down to 12%

Just win Florida baby

[Stallion]

12. Remember You Can't See Most of the Blue Wave Until It Breaks

[Buns_of_Fire]

13. Meanwhile, Comrade Fishlips is wolfing down his eighth Big Mac.

Would you like some more gravy on that, dear?

[krawhitham]

15. 81.1%

[OliverQ]

16. It's dropping a lot. :( This is bad news.

[budkin]

17. No it isn't

Chill out.

[Joe941]

18. This is going to be a great night. +50 in the house!

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Bad shifts all over the place

538 now down to 75.6%

Gad. I didn't think this would happen, once we busted above 90%

[Adrahil]

20. This has a familiar, sickening feeling.... NT