Holy shit! 538 Republicans 1 in 2 chance win House

[Doodley]

[nycbos]

1. Where?

[PoliticAverse]

2. 538...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

[femmedem]

3. 538.

Dammit. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Now we are at 39%

Could be a disastrous embarrassing night

[Doodley]

5. Fuck

[gay texan]

6. What the fuck is going on????

[BumRushDaShow]

7. OFFS - 538 updates "real time" so it will be changing all night

You have 50 states and the west coast is still voting.

[Celerity]

8. Wtf

This cant be right. Must be a glitch.

[MLAA]

9. 1 see them at 1 in 5 chances to win....we are at 4 in 5 chances

[blitzen]

10. didn't you mean 1 in 20? because it's 96%

[Doodley]

15. That's the Senate

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Normally when it plunges like this it doesn't come back

We need a semi miracle.

Republican rural white voters are apparently dictating the country again

[marybourg]

12. Less than that now: 39.9%

Picking up only 20 seats, instead of the 21 needed.

[Patterson]

21. 23 is needed.

[mr_liberal]

13. 3 in 5 Chance Republicans win control of house (60.7%). nt

[Azathoth]

14. Oh stop this shit

Realtime results with 3% of districts reporting in are meaningless.

[Enoki33]

22. Exactly.

[Takket]

16. that graph is bad data

they live update based on early vote totals, and early totals are always rural red counties. really silly to present data like that. its like saying a baseball team goes from a 33% to 66% chance of winning if they score 1 run in the first inning

[Roland99]

17. 4 in 7 chance Dems win now. It updates constantly

[unblock]

18. Back up to 57%. I think it will jump around a bit....

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Now 57%

We need the tight races to fall our way. There is no wave, given the gerrymandered aspect

[Celerity]

20. Its back ip to 57% we take back the House.

Seems to be crazy delta going on.

[Doodley]

23. I have to lay down. Making me sick.

[unblock]

24. A note from 538 as to why the model may be overreacting

"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

[budkin]

25. There is NO WAY they could be that off.

There has got to be something rotten going on.

[marylandblue]

26. Silver says his model is too aggressive

Overweighting a few R wins when there are no equivalent D chances.

[budkin]

27. I've stopped watching in real time

Way too stressful

[JenniferJuniper]

28. Tampering

has to be. Carville on MSNBC just sounded very depressed.

[TNLib]

29. It'll change once we move west.

I wouldn’t freak out

[LonePirate]

30. We are truly fucked as a nation.

I’m in my mid-40s and I think there is a chance this country dissolves in my lifetime.

[gay texan]

31. How is this even possible

I dont get it

[krawhitham]

32. Nate says

Link to tweet

[PoliticAverse]

33. Silver turns down the dial...

Link to tweet

[RogerM]

34. Who know - It will be close !

Link to tweet

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

35. At 62% Dems

[NeverTrumpDemocrat]

36. Dem are likely to take the House, but not impressively the way this night has started.

Outside the House, things look worse: Senator Donnelly is behind in Indiana. And Gillum is behind in Florida