Some new polls in.....Numbers aren't good

[woolldog]

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf

Ohio

8/15/12 Obama (44) Romney (46)

last month, same poll:

7/13/12 Obama (48) Romney (45)

Florida

8/15/12 Obama (47) Romney (48)

last month:

7/13/12 Obama (45) Romney (48)

Virginia

8/15/12 Obama (45) Romney (48)

last month

7/13/12 Obama (46) Romney (44)

Colorado

8/15/12 Obama (49) Romney (46)

last month

7/13/12 Obama (45) Romney (44)


So we've seen over the past month some general movement against Obama in Virginia and Ohio. Some movement for him in Colorado and Florida. Overall this is troubling since last month was supposed to be very good for Obama.

Still haven't dug into the details. Any additions/corrections let me know.

[cali]

1. Purple Strategies, eh? It's owned and run by Alex Castellanos

I'm not saying that this couldn't be possible- I've never thought this was going to be an easy race to win and I don't think Ryan really changes that, but keep in mind that PS is not only run Castellanos but is an unproven polling outfit that was started only in 2008.

[woolldog]

4. Didn't know that cali.

It's just a data point.

But that's why I included what the poll looked like the previous month. It's the movement that's key...and troubling. Wouldve expected Obama to gain some ground since this month was good for him.

[NightWatcher]

34. wants to make a "purple veined dick joke" about Castellanos but I wont

oh wait, did I just?

[FBaggins]

2. Should we have heard of the pollster?

I know I haven't... And I've followed the game for some time.

[woolldog]

9. Then you haven't followed very closely.

If you follow polls closely you look at Nate Silver's site and you also look at Real Clear Politics. Their polls are regularly reported on by both.

[progressivebydesign]

11. Nate Silver? Not exactly someone we consider to be clean in the polling circles.

[berni_mccoy]

18. ?! What are you talking about?

[GoneOffShore]

24. What's the issue with Nate Silver, please?

He was certainly accurate in '08. And 2010.

[Joe the Revelator]

43. Wtf are you talking about?

[Codeine]

44. Uhhhh, really?

Do tell.

[TeamPooka]

50. wtf are you talking about?

Nate is the king of poll crunching and everyone knows it.

[Capt. Obvious]

79. L to the fucking OL

Please expound on this baseless accusation.

[maddezmom]

14. You've probably seen Alex shilling for all things Repugs on the cable news outlets

not saying these polls aren't accurate but the founder is deep Red.

[catbyte]

68. Didn't Rachel Maddow rip Castellanos a new one on MTP

A few months ago after he has being a condescending asshole to her?

[monmouth]

3. This tells me all I need to know about that poll

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/06/castellanos-welcomes-purple-nation-strategies-126500.html


Washington has been buzzing (snickering?) a bit today over the creation of a new bipartisan firm, Purple Nation Strategies, headed by former Clinton lawyer Lanny Davis and former RNC Chairman Michael Steele. The duo told an enthusiastic Howard Kurtz that the idea behind the firm is to offer consulting advice and "to urge their parties to tone down the negativity and personal attacks."

The punch line is that Davis and Steele are not particularly liked, to put it mildly, within their own parties — Steele due to his disastrous tenure at the RNC and Davis thanks to, among other things, his high-profile work representing foreign dictators in Washington. Jonathan Chait has more thoughts on the duo here.

As it happens, "Purple Nation Strategies" is awfully close to the name of another bipartisan firm, Purple Strategies, that includes a roster of operatives quite well respected on both sides. One of them, GOP media strategist Alex Castellanos, emails to welcome the new kids on the block:

[woolldog]

7. meh

It had Obama ahead in 3/4 races last month.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

61. That just tells me they will lie when it counts. I.e. closer to the election.

Even Baghdad Bob had to mix in a little truth.

[DearAbby]

5. All within the margin of Error

whatever bounce they expected from Ryan, isn't worth a spit on a hot skillet.

[BeyondGeography]

6. Positive movement for Obama in two of the four states

I expect we're in for some shite numbers post-Ryan MSM blowjob, but these aren't really bad, given the source.

[AverageJoe90]

45. Agreed, it is indeed plausible, I think.

[outsideworld]

8. Calm Down

Follow nate silver..he is all you need to pay attention to

[progressivebydesign]

16. Actually Nate Silver has been suspect lately, leaning to the right in his analysis, & often wrong nt

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

29. When has he been wrong?

He has Obama at a 70% or so chance of winning, but I guess anything less than a 100% is leaning right.

[myrna minx]

77. Can you back up that assertion? Do you have a link? Who finds him "suspect"?

Thanks!

[woolldog]

22. I do follow him.

I'm guessing he's going to be discussing these polls tonight or tmmrw

[MADem]

10. Who in hell are "Purple Strategies?"

A GOP outfit pretending to be "bipartisan?"

Looks like a shitload of white people to me--there's a token Asian in there too, but that doesn't look like MY America atall...

http://www.purplestrategies.com/people/

[Dawson Leery]

13. +1

[CabCurious]

87. Certainly nobody to take that seriously...

[Sheepshank]

12. Freaking a....look at all that Ryan bump going on!!!! n/t

[progressivebydesign]

15. Oh c'mon.

Can I get a DU feature to hide all threads with the word "poll" and "bad news" in it? Every election there is a helpful crew that seems to curate the worst polls by these Mickey Mouse organizations. Oh noes!! The Purple Nation Strategies? Really? Who?

[leftstreet]

17. If Obama can't beat Romney, he shouldn't be in office

Four years ago Obama rocketed to fame with the greatest political capital of any prez in our lifetimes. He attracted massive, massive crowds, at home and globally. He assembled an army of internet volunteers. He became the first non-white POTUS in US history. He led a party that completely demolished their opposition. He won a frigging Nobel peace prize.

Why on earth should he have a problem beating Romney?

[WI_DEM]

20. man, relax it's just one poll. After the GOP convention four years ago McCain led in the polls, too

[FBaggins]

26. Just the opposite really

If Romney can't beat the president when the economy is this weak... He's a truly dreadful candidate.

The good news is... There's every indication that that's exactly what he is.

[WI_DEM]

19. you gotta expect some kind of bump with a VP selection and then the convention

even McCain got it from Palin. Once the conventions are over the real campaign will be on and the debates and they will be crucial.

[Motown_Johnny]

21. Polls will jump all over the place for a while, let it go until after the debates

watching every little fluctuation will cause health problems.

[littlewolf]

23. the ONLY poll that matters happens Tuesday ... nt

is in Nov.

[grantcart]

25. I doubt Ohio

The rest will depend on turnout, but he is showing FL going down for Romney which is good..

Nate Silver has done a pretty exhausting survey on why incumbents poll 2-3% lower than outcome.

Romney has to have all of the states and for Obama he wins with either Ohio or Florida.

[woolldog]

27. They're going to do it

I can't believe it but the GOP is gonna win.

After the convention airwaves are gonna be flooded with negative Obama ads, they're already starting. Romney has a ton more money and has no apparent scruples about telling outright lies. Combine that with the voter suppression in PA and everywhere else, and we're doomed.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

28. Jesus.....you shoulda just done this in the first post....

....throw the doom and gloom right off the top so we can move on.

[AverageJoe90]

46. The only sure way that'll happen......

Is if we give up. We've been fighting like hell for the last several months and we're not stopping now, I don't think.

Romney's buddies have already thrown tens of millions of dollars out there and it hasn't been working well so far......and he's the best candidate they've got, really!

[Lone_Star_Dem]

49. LOL!

Oh. My. Goodness. I hardly ever actually laugh out loud to something on the internet. But, this really did it to me.

We're facing one of the most secretive presidential candidates ever foolishly voted into that position by their party. Couple that with an extreme RW nut who wants to destroy Medicare, and take away a women's right to choose and most all forms of birth control. And we're doomed?

Geeze, get a freaking grip on yourself, and maybe lay off the caffeine.

[Drunken Irishman]

52. You're now on my ignore list...

Seriously, do you ever tire of being wrong? For the entire 2008 campaign I had to listen to your whining that Obama was going to lose and you're right back at it. I don't even think you're really an Obama supporter and instead a concern troll. Your whole posting history here at DU has been littered with concern. It's disgusting.

[CabCurious]

88. I just got here and I'm about to figure out how to put somebody on ignore lol

I can't believe this guy posts THIS pollster and then claims the GOP are going to win over it...

[still_one]

57. That is you view, however I don't buy that crap, and believe that women, and older people

Are not going to let it happen

[Ikonoklast]

70. Try harder. You fool no one here.

You have never voiced support for Democrats or his president, why start now, right?

And please don't use "we", unless you have a mouse in your pocket.

You aren't part of the "we", here.

[Cali_Democrat]

71. WTF?

This is surely sarcasm, right?

[aquart]

81. Thank you for your concern.

[waddirum]

84. I much prefer the steel spine and gritty fortitude...

... currently shown by President Obama, VP Biden, and Sen. Reid to the "we're doomed" pants pissing shown by woolldog.

[aaaaaa5a]

30. 5 quick points.

5 points.


1) First, all of the polls are within the margin of error of where they were last time.


2) Secondly, 2 of the 4 states moved IN OBAMA'S DIRECTION, including Florida which a month ago was thought to not be in play. Its now a clear tossup.


3) Thirdly, remember folks, the only thing that matters is the electoral college. 2000 should have taught you guys that. The only focus is 270. Obama only needs 1 of the 4 states in the OP to hit 270. Romney MUST HAVE all 4.


4) Fourth, Romney has dominated the press with his VP pick. Only about 6% are undecided. And they don't pay any attention to politics. He was bound to see a little bump in that last Saturday is the best day his campaign has had. And he is still losing in Colorado? Florida, Virginia and Ohio are still too close to call?


5) 5th and finally, this is one pollster. To get a better idea of the race use the RCP average of all pollsters. This formula was dead on scary accurate in 2008. It is an excellent way to weed out polling bias from both sides to get an accurate picture of where the race stands. Under that formula, Obama leads in all 4 states. And he only needs one to keep the White House

[JaneQPublic]

72. Excellent analysis

Thanks for putting things in their proper perspective.

[demosincebirth]

31. these show the complete opposite:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[woolldog]

32. No not really.

These are the freshest polls.

[demosincebirth]

35. How fresh? It says the 15th ...like right out of the oven. nt.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[woolldog]

37. yes, but

that site is made up of a composite of past polls. every new poll is reflected in that site eventually, including this poll. the race has gotten closer aand you site will be reflecting that soon. does it stay that way? I dunno

[Amonester]

47. Then compare these two graphs (current '12 vs complete '08).

2008


2012


Q: Back in '08, when did Obama/Biden 'really took off' away from McCain/Palin?
A: 1st Debate, then stabilized after 3rd Debate.

Q: Back in '08, when did McCain's line bumped shortly over Obama's?
A: When McCain's campaign selected Palin.

Obama/Biden are expert debaters. Never doubt it, and calm down.

Donate and get involved if you can: http://www.barackobama.com/

Thanks!

On edit 1: Electoral College ... Excluding States Where the Candidates are Statistically Tied
On edit 2: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html

[woolldog]

62. Good point.

I see these Romney ads on TV constantly and wonder whether people are believing them. I hear R/R making bald faced lies in their stump speeched about Obama gutting welfare and medicare and it's disgusting and I wonder whether anyone's buying it? I can't tell.

I don't see why the race is so close. The thought that Republicans could be rewarded for all their obstruction and intentionally hurting the country by deliberately doing NOTHING, saying no to everything Obama asked for even when they were Republican ideas, the lying, the idea they could be rewarded for THAT with the WHITE HOUSE is fucking nauseating. This race shouldn't be close. I don't understand what independent /undecided voters are thinking. I just don't get it.

[Amonester]

69. My first guess is, most independent/undecided voters haven't realy paid attention yet.

And by looking at the '08 graphs, it might be that the undecided only made up their minds once they watched the first debate.

My second guess is, they pretty much will do the same this year, unless they're 'too busy' working (more likely than four years ago).

President Obama will not let Mittens get away with his lies on national teevee. He is going to make him become very nervous.

[phylny]

33. I live in Virginia.

Last I heard, Obama was ahead.

[abelenkpe]

67. Have a lot of friends in northern VA

They are all republicans, work mostly for defense industry or federal government. Not sure why they want to vote for Romney when he is open about cutting government spending. Aka cutting government jobs. Won't be good for that area even if one doesn't work for the government as it would be that many more people out of work, not paying mortgages, leading to foreclosure, lowering the price of homes, fewer paying bills, paying taxes going out to eat or shopping. If Virginians were interested in self preservation seems like they would vote for Obama.

[Jennicut]

36. Oh, that poll...brought to us by Alex "the Shill" Castellanos

And that good old "centrist" so called Dem Steve McMahon. Ugg.

Please find polls that don't have biases in them. This one is too obvious. BP hired McMahon and Castellanos. That says it all.

[nyquil_man]

38. There's a reason why polling firms do multiple polls over a long period of time.

Polls are snapshots. Take a look at this snapshot:



Based on that snapshot, can you tell me if that blimp is going to explode?

What RealClear Politics, Nate Silver, Pollster, and countless others do is collect multiple polls and analyze the overall trend.

I understand your concern, but these are the facts: President Obama is performing more strongly now than he was at this point in 2008. Romney is underperforming McCain. Obama is much closer to the 270 electoral votes needed to win than Romney is.

I remember a poll from September 2008 which showed McCain winning North Carolina by 20 points. If you had a time machine, would you bet money on its accuracy?

[AverageJoe90]

53. I honestly LMAOed @ the Hindenburg picture.

No, seriously.

[NashvilleLefty]

39. Polls are meaningless

especially since Republicans have learned how to better steal the vote.

[Egalitarian Thug]

40. Stop trying to freak people out. Rmoney just picked his VP and what bounce there

was is well short of what was expected. Election fraud is Rmoney's only hope.

If you must panic over something, try figuring out how to make the President start punishing the conservadems and living up to his campaign rhetoric.

[still_one]

58. And the Ryan factor hasn't shown up in the polls yet.

[demwing]

41. Jesus! ONE bad poll and you cave? Get Some Perspective!

According to the RCP averages:

DESPITE the Gen Elec polls from Gallup and Ras with Rom up, Obama STILL leads in the GE average by 3 points.
DESPITE the Ohio poll from PurpleS w/ Rom up 2, Obama STILL leads in the OH average by 3 points.
DESPITE the Florida poll from PurpleS w/ Rom up 1, Obama STILL leads in the FL average by 1.7 points.
DESPITE the Virginia poll from PurpleS w/ Rom up 2, Obama STILL leads in the VA average by 2.2 points.
DESPITE recently trailing in CO, Obama NOW leads in the CO average by 1 point.

THIS is the bounce from Ryan? Being behind in every poll?

:ROFL:

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

42. READ THIS.....take a breath

http://election.princeton.edu/

[JaneyVee]

48. And FOX news has Obama up by +9

[Amonester]

54. And we suspect why: they skew them hoping to energize their base.

Since they know full well the disastrous EC numbers: they want the gullible to work their asses off because they know they're screwn as of now.

[regnaD kciN]

56. My suspicion...

...is that Faux designed that poll to give unusually-good numbers for Obama, do that it will be bigger news when their post-Ryan, post-convention poll shows "OMG - Romney has taken the lead!!!".

[Dkc05]

51. don't sweat it. its in the bank. we WIN.

Four more years

[Lint Head]

55. Please. This is total propaganda. These are Murdoch lackies. You will find that the details are push

polls and deceptive survey questions designed to create distrust and panic.

[morningfog]

59. First off, I have no idea who this pollster is. Second, Ryan bump, small and quick.

[still_one]

60. This is directly from your link and it is bullshit

At 45% to 39%, Paul Ryan is the only member of either major party ticket who currently has higher favorables than unfavorables. He is extremely well-liked among Republicans (80%/9%), and independents have an overall favorable opinion of him (46%/37%). Over the next few weeks, the two campaigns will be racing to define him among those 16% that don’t have an opinion

[Lone_Star_Dem]

64. Thanks for sharing that. The file is PDF and not supported on my phone.

Who the heck are the they polling?

[still_one]

65. All the polls I have seen past and present are very ho hum for Ryan among repugs, and under

Independents they are low

I guess that could change but if the past is any predictor of the future, it won't

[cherokeeprogressive]

63. You should know better.

You've just been added to lists you didn't even know existed.

Nice going.

[woolldog]

66. Nate's take on these polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/aug-15-to-bounce-or-not-to-bounce/#postComment

[CreekDog]

73. look, if you think he's going to lose and can't be convinced otherwise...

then what is the point of telling us this and what are we expected to do in response?

this is a community.

[LiberalAndProud]

74. " This is a below-average “bounce” "

for a below-average running mate. I'm sure it's time to PANIC!!@@!@

[ProSense]

75. You need

to stop freaking out. Nate:

But if you simply average all the data that post-dates the unveiling of Mr. Ryan as Mr. Romney’s running mate, we’re getting largely the same story that we did on Tuesday. Mr. Romney has gained a net of one point, on average, in the eleven polls conducted wholly or partially after his announcement of Mr. Ryan, compared to the prior renditions of the same surveys in the same states. This is a below-average “bounce” for the selection of a vice presidential candidate; in past elections, the bounce has averaged in the neighborhood of 4 percentage points instead.

This is why Mitt is in a panic
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021139434

Mark Blumenthal

Paul Ryan Pick Causes Little Change: Poll

WASHINGTON -- If the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as vice-presidential running mate to presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney has produced a "bump" for the GOP ticket, it is somewhere between small and non-existent. That's the conclusion from a handful of new polls released on Wednesday.

Gallup released results from their daily tracking poll that showed Romney with a 2 point edge over President Barack Obama (47 to 45 percent) among the 1,863 registered voters interviewed over the four day period since Ryan was selected. That finding represents just a 1 point improvement for Romney since the previous four-day period. Given that results for each of the two samples come with a 3 point margin of error, Gallup concluded that Ryan's selection "has not done much to change voter preferences, at least initially."

<...>



Two other national tracking polls released results on Wednesday showing similar single digit shifts that fell within the respective margins of error of each survey. The Rasmussen Reports automated telephone poll tracking showed a net 2 point gain for Romney, but the YouGov/Economist Internet survey showed a gain of the same magnitude for Obama. If the Ryan choice has produced a polling "bump" at the national level, it is difficult to distinguish from statistical noise.

<...>

Five automated telephone polls also released on Wednesday, one from Rasmussen Reports and four from the bi-partisan public relations firm Purple Strategies, show a similar pattern. All five were fielded entirely after the Ryan announcement. Once again, they produced changes in the low single digits -- all well within sampling error for each individual poll -- with net gains for Romney in four polls and for Obama in two.



- more -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/15/paul-ryan-pick_n_1784520.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012

Ryan is dead weight, and will become a liability.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

83. Seems like you shouldn't be panicing then

[greatauntoftriplets]

76. Gloom and doom! Gotterdammerung!!!111

[108vcd]

78. Check out Nate Silvers 538

if you want to feel better

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Capt. Obvious]

80. Nate Silver? Not exactly someone we consider to be clean in the polling circles.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

82. Interesting

Exact same way phrased by another poster above....

Anyway, care to tell us all why?

[Drunken Irishman]

86. The guys at Princeton did a good job swatting down Nate Silver...

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/02/a-flaw-in-the-nyt-now-meter/

[scheming daemons]

85. I see DU's favorite concern troll is at it again

..

[CabCurious]

89. Im going to assume this drama is typical from wooldude?

He posts a poll from a group no national news takes seriously.

Then he goes on and on about how Obama is destined to lose. Clearly a troll.