Can we still win CA-39 and CA-45?

[BlueintheSTL]

Link to tweet

Cisneros picked up 249 votes and all 9,675 votes came from OC. So that is good

Link to tweet

Porter only picked up 11 votes today. That is a little worrisome

Also, how do we have any idea of how many votes are outstanding in each district? Turnout so far in CA-39 is 46.39% and CA-45 is 50.51%. What are final turnout numbers expected to be roughly? Are there enough votes left in each district to overtake and win both of them? The CNN map says 100% reported in every CA district so it is hard to get a read on how many votes are outstanding.

[David__77]

1. Who knows?

If CA-39 turnout ends up at 60% and the margins keep with Cisneros winning 52.5% of newly-added votes, then things are very close to tied. I do note that these last ballots coming in were in Orange County - the most pro-Kim of the three counties in CA-39.

As for CA-45, there has been significant variation in the candidate share in each new batch. This last one was much less pro-Porter than the last two. I don't know if the last two included provisionals that were relatively pro-Porter, and the new ballots being added will tend to be more like election day turnout. In any case, if turnout ends up at 60%, Porter needs to win about 51.8% of the remaining ballots to win.

In both races, I tend to think that the late counts will on average skew several points left - I'm hopeful that this trend will occur with new batches.

[Initech]

7. CA-39 is my district.

I know a lot of people who voted by mail. I really hope it swings in Gil's favor!

[Iggo]

12. I'm right next door in CA-38, which was never in doubt.

But I saw you guys at our shared polling place in Whittier.

"Yellow Table" had the longest lines and the meanest faces.

[rufus dog]

2. CA 45 update

Hasn't been updated for today, you are correct, just a minor pick up today. Will look for the 39th update

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jNCPGllEgnpeFbuImtjiVRSynd1Czq9CH04K3ukeXuE/edit?fbclid=IwAR3LiopeVDSw52e-5hNSgWr80MpKML6j-KMiE0XpU7XhEFq2dVVB2uw6Kgg

[BlueintheSTL]

5. Yes it was

In the link those are yesterday's results:

Walters 103,975
Porter 101,955

Today

Walters 107,132
Porter 105,123

Percentage wise nothing change since Porter only picked up 11 votes today. So that is why it looks the same.

Also, where are you getting these documents from?

[rufus dog]

8. A Facebook page for the district

Not sure if you have to live in the district to be added.


https://www.facebook.com/groups/California45th/

[rufus dog]

10. Another great doc a person from the page created

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQWRbCgi7gbKrudqwTy5HMKepe2Z8AckTggCS6e5Z7ZW7zwOwulrcHmoSgcyO2Hc5dGAyU0XPxRetD-/pubhtml?fbclid=IwAR3x89LNK_7IFf2-FFoFJQT0lq7BH1VYMT-rC_YgLi4gd-Ou_dcWpoetcYA

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. They are both heavy favorites at predictit

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4824/Which-party-will-win-the-2018-House-of-Reps-race-in-California's-45th-district


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4030/Which-party-will-win-the-2018-House-of-Reps-race-in-California's-39th-district

[BlueintheSTL]

6. Yeah I saw that

I am sure they know better than anyone, but it is still tough to predict in California because you do not know how many votes are outstanding and what the final turnout percentage will. I am bit surprised they are still that highly favored.

[BigmanPigman]

4. CA is always slow counting votes, at least that is what the local news stations have been saying.

They have to count all the mail in votes and I heard that could take a while longer.

[rufus dog]

9. I can only speak from personal experience

Three voter household, wife and kid have mail in ballots, I vote in person.

They finished up the ballots on Monday night and I dropped them off when I voted. My machine vote would have gone immediately, theirs got added to the pile to count.

Another strange thing I encountered, small precinct, line to vote in a persons garage on a street I used to live on. Seemed to be a lot of provisional ballots. Older Hispanic couple who lived two doors down from me at the previous residence, he was OK to vote, she had to fill out provisional. They both voted in 2016 because I put them in line in front of me in 2016 and watched them get a ballot. Another old neighbor, who I thought I saw in 2016, Berkeley grad, liberal, Arabic surname, was also given a provisional ballot.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. I read this LA Times article this morning

(written about 1 pm ET on Saturday)

GOP Rep. Denham falls behind Democrat as 3 other Republicans lose ground in Friday's ballot tally

By Maya Sweedler and Michael Finnegan
Nov 10, 2018 | 10:05 AM

Republican Rep. Jeff Denham lost his lead over Democrat Josh Harder on Friday in one of California’s four unresolved congressional races as updated ballot counts showed the GOP in growing danger of losing as many as six House seats in the state.

GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa fell further behind Democrat Harley Rouda, who is now more than 7,300 votes ahead of the 15-term congressman.

Another Republican Orange County incumbent, Rep. Mimi Walters, has seen her election-night lead of 6,233 votes drop to 2,020 in her race against Democrat Katie Porter.

The tabulation Friday was also alarming for Republican candidate Young Kim of Fullerton, whose election-night lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros has shrunk to 2,672 votes. If historical voting patterns hold, Republicans will lose all four of those seats. Tens of thousands of votes have yet to be counted in each contest, analysts in both parties estimate, and the votes tallied latest in California nearly always skew Democratic. Denham fell Friday to 3,362 votes behind Harder.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-house-vote-counts-20181109-story.html

Of course they finally called the Rouda - Rohrabacher race.