THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT PROJECTS KYRSTEN SINEMA THE WINNER OF THE ARIZONA SENATE RACE

[RandySF]

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Projection: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R) in #AZSEN. This thing has been over for a while.

[manor321]

1. Now it is time to sue to stop the counting of the votes! :)

Just kidding of course.

[Cha]

2. Thanks Jeff!

[roamer65]

3. Ok DNC, time to go all in on the FL debacle.

Sue That POS Scott himself.

[Wintryjade]

4. So, what is that putting senate at, please?

[unblock]

6. i think this means republicans have only a 1 seat pickup at the moment, but

it would become a 2-seat pickup for them if they take florida (still a toss-up) and hold mississippi (very likely for them).

[Wintryjade]

7. Thank you much. I was waiting for stuff to settle a tad, before

figuring it out. So, IF we get Nelson (he is still confident) and possibly Mississippi, then it stay 49-51

[iluvtennis]

20. Correct.

[Iliyah]

8. Ummmmmm

So far we lost three, and so far Repigs hae lost two. Nelson . . . Repigs 1 or two in Senate. Nelson wins I figure the same odds as before, still Repigs still in the majority.

[Wintryjade]

11. Sittin' around where we were up really is a win. We didn't expect nor should have gotten a win.

It would have been totally awesome, but was way beyond the odds. But, if we hold it tight 2018 then 2020 will bring us a lot better chance.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. Dems lost 3 (ND, MO, IND) and gained 2 (NV, AZ)

That makes it Rs +1

There's 2 elections outstanding, Nelson in FL and Espy in MS (runoff).

If Nelson wins and Espy loses or Nelson loses and Espy wins, it will be Rs +1 (52R-46D-2I)
If Nelson wins and Espy wins his runoff, then Senate will remain 51R-47D-2I (Sanders, King) who caucus with the Dems.
If Nelson and Espy both lose, then it's Rs+2 (53R-45D-2I)

Really, considering the 2018 Senate re-election map, for the GOP to gain only 2 seats, that isn't impressive.

[Wintryjade]

14. Thanks for writing it all out. I appreciate it. You did terrific.

I agree with your assessment.

[StevieM]

15. I don't see Espy winning, sorry to say. But hopefully we get a fair recount in Florida. (eom)

[Algernon Moncrieff]

17. It was a horrible map.

If this had been the Senate map two.years ago.it might have been a bloodbath.

[AlexSFCA]

22. and the senate map for gop in 2020 looks bloodbathy

the important focus for us should be state elections, governorships, secretary of state, legislatures, etc.

[Bleacher Creature]

5. That's fantastic! Fingers still crossed on the AZ SoS numbers. NT

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

10. Arizona Republic seems to say it's not over.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/11/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-senate-race-ballot-counting-results/1967206002/

[BumRushDaShow]

13. But they pretty much do say it though...

(from the link)

Sinema expanded her lead to 32,640 votes — a 1.5 percentage-point lead — as of 5 p.m. Sunday, according to updated counts posted by the Arizona Secretary of State. Her campaign manager predicted her victory is inevitable.

The lengthy vote-count process, which has continued long after the polls closed Nov. 6, is mostly due to the need to verify signatures for voters who vote by mail. To remain competitive, McSally needed to outperform all of her previous showings in Maricopa County, the state's most populous area and one that Sinema has dominated.

Sinema's campaign manager wrote in a statement that McSally would need a miracle to pull out a win. “With the latest ballot count, Kyrsten’s lead is insurmountable," Andrew Piatt's statement said. "McSally’s campaign said today’s results would be her ‘firewall’ but as we expected, no firewall emerged ... Kyrsten has now expanded her overall lead to 32,640 or 1.52 percent, meaning McSally would have to win the remainder of Maricopa County ballots by 22 percent to take the lead in this race. This is not plausible. Kyrsten will be declared the next U.S. Senator from Arizona.”

<...>

As she lost ground to Sinema over the course of several days, McSally remained confident she would reverse the trend with the tabulation of early ballots dropped off at polling locations on Election Day, the so-called "firewall" referenced in Piatt's statement. Those numbers could be reflected in Sunday's tally. McSally fared better in the Sunday batch of votes from Maricopa County but once again trailed Sinema’s total by 6.2 percentage points. On Saturday, Sinema led McSally by 7 percentage points among the 72,000 votes from Maricopa County tallied that day. Sinema won the Friday night voting reported by Maricopa County by 15 percentage points. Throughout the weekend, Sinema’s net gain from Maricopa County gave her an additional 18,675 votes over McSally.

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

19. Yes, that does clairfy what is happening.

It seems after rereading the article the votes left to count are missing. I will assume that changes by the hour ! It's looking in Arizona !

[BumRushDaShow]

25. In other news

https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/11/christie_as_ag_hed_be_awful_others_even_worse_mora.html

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

26. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! : }

You know he did say he'll be back around in the second wave ! Perhaps now he thinks he is the second wave .

[BumRushDaShow]

27. !!

Or 2nd tsunami...

[iluvtennis]

21. Thank you for that clarification - go Sinema, go Sinema.

[meluvrem]

12. Happy with caution

She is moderate, right of center.
Need to keep good eye on her.
We need all hands on deck to fight for decency and democracy

Grant Woods former AZ AG just became Dem due to it45.

[VMA131Marine]

16. Katie Hobbs now down by only 259 for AZ SOS

She's been making up ground this whole time and it looks inevitable that she will take the lead.

[sarge43]

18. Congratulations, Senator Elect Sinema

[herding cats]

23. Good news!

Thank you! It's very welcome.

[Zambero]

24. Fork, please

DONE!