General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump's got 42.9% approval at 538. Ya wanna know why?
Well one reason is that Nate Silver keeps Rasmussen Report in the mix, an outfit even more fair and balanced than Fox News. 51% of Americans approve of President Trump according to Rasmussen.
RR 18-20/11 Trump 51/48% approval
Cf
18-20/11 YouGov 40/49%
17-20/11 ARG 42/55%
14-20/11 Ipsos 44/51%
14-19/11 Quinnipiac 41/54%
Yes, Nate, discounts and adjusts their results. After reweighting RRs adjusted results areTrump 48/51%.
Ramussen is sewerage. RRs are updated every 2-3 days, are inexplicably counter narrative (if other polls go down, it goes up) and disproportionally dominates Registered Voters.
Ive heard Nate justify leaving Rasmussen in with a Both Sides argument. No good enough. If the evidence mounts that a survey is not just biased, but a croc of cooked up lies, its time to give then the boot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
chowder66
(9,068 posts)is not paying attention or rotten themselves.
MBS
(9,688 posts)His approval rating should be about 4%, not 40. After 2 years of this nightmare, how could ~40% of our fellow citizens still think that this vile and incompetent human being is fit to be president? It just boggles my mind. SOO depressing and frustrating.
lamsmy
(155 posts)538 looks at how the polling organizers collect and calculate the data. Rasmussen's methods are not consider best practice.
However, Rasmussen was mostly right on the 2016 election results - better than the the predictions from the top flight pollsters including 538.
You may hate the results, and NS may discount their methodology, but he also understands that the Rasmussen results should not be dismissed.
crazytown
(7,277 posts)Tell me this is writhin legitimate sampling (or even methodological) errors.
uponit7771
(90,336 posts)... including that hack of an outfit.
Rassumussen didn't have a better hit miss on the state level than other outfits which would've given Americans a better view of how the election would've gone.
and justifying keeping them in the running because they were correct 2 years ago is pretty thin.
Science shouldn't be left or right
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I have a one variable model that is highly predictive.
I simply take the results from the Rasmussen poll:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05
and add nine points to the Democratic total.
That simple one variable model would have predicted the House popular vote this election.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)...And Rasmussen was not "mostly right in 2016.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Denzil_DC
(7,234 posts)He keeps even skewed/unreliable pollsters in the mix, but weights their results accordingly.
Whether he weights them enough is another matter. No amount of weighting will counter percentages cooked up out of thin air.
crazytown
(7,277 posts)trumps approval is trending lower then inexplicably RR posts 50% then 51%. It stinks.
uponit7771
(90,336 posts)...
Denzil_DC
(7,234 posts)It looks like they have banned 6 pollsters. RR gets a C+ - though there have been suggestions in the past that RR's polls skew more realistic in the final stages of big races.
CrispyQ
(36,462 posts)No fucking way.
Stallion
(6,474 posts)crazytown
(7,277 posts)Wintryjade
(814 posts)and he is doing well.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As I keep saying, what really stands out is how steady his approval rating has been compared to his predecessors. Cult45 is real. It simply doesn't matter what he says or does. I don't think economic conditions have much bearing on his support or lack thereof. This is a cult driven by racism and sexism.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Trump's effective approval rating is considerably higher than that 42.9%, not lower.
That is the mistake made around here repeatedly. The focus is always on Rasmussen, which is adjusted downward 4-5 points. Yet Nate also adjusts many other pollsters lower, and he adjusts quite a few of them higher.
The net adjustment is wrong. That was verified once again in the exit polls, which had Trump at 45%. RealClearPolitics came much closer than Nate Silver simply by raw averaging. They were at 43.6% on election eve while I believe Nate's model was at 41.9%. As I mentioned, it came in at 45%.
To be fair, Nate had mentioned many times that Trump's approval rating among likely voters is higher than among overall sampling. That partially accounts for the difference. But it does not equate for a full 3% gap between Nate's model and what the exit polling indicated.
Nate's models are still a work in progress, as we saw on election night with the House model fluctuating all over the place. I am not a big fan of adjustments, as learned the hard way in Las Vegas. That's why I use a derisive term Happy Adjuster for someone who wants to mold the world into anything he wants it to be. In this case, several friends and I from the Las Vegas wagering scene agreed that RealClearPolitics' non-adjusted approval model would probably be closer to reality than Nate's heavily adjusted version, and that's the way it played out.
Looking forward toward election 2020 it is very foolish to take Nate's number at face value toward where Trump really stands with the people who will decide his fate.
Kingofalldems
(38,456 posts)Rizen
(708 posts)We took back the House with gains not seen since Watergate. Republicans were washed out. There's your approval ratings.