Here's how I view what one might reasonably consider the 10 battleground states heading into 2020:
MI/16: likely Dem
PA/20: likely Dem
WI/10: likely Dem
FL/29: toss-up
NC/15: toss-up
AZ/11: lean Rep
OH/18: lean Rep
GA/16: lean Rep
TX/38: solid Rep
IA/6: solid Rep
I'm feeling optimistic, so I could see us winning 100+ electoral votes from that group, which would give our nominee 330+ electoral votes (assuming we hold onto all of the states Clinton won). 360 or so electoral votes is as close to a "landslide" as we're likely to see at this time. Obama won 365 in 2008. The days of someone winning well over 400 are long gone.
I think if we nominate Kamala Harris, we are going to see record Democratic turnout (70+ million votes for Harris and her running mate, be it O'Rourke or Klobuchar or Landrieu or whoever). But there are still 20+ states that we simply can't win.
There were many factors at play in MI, PA and WI in 2016, but I'm fairly confident that they'll be back in our column on 11/3/2020. I don't think we should give up on Ohio, but I suspect Iowa is going the way of Missouri. I personally wouldn't call Texas a battleground state yet, but it's headed that way. Florida is absolutely still in play, especially in presidential elections. Same goes for North Carolina. We can compete in Arizona and Georgia, as well.
