Economists won't predict the next recession

[Yosemito]

Both official (The Fed) and independent economists failed to foresee the George W Bush recession, even after it had already begun.

I'm not saying you won't find outliers who got it right. I'm saying in general, economists didn't see what hit them.
Don't believe news articles these days that say, "few economists see a recession coming ".

I once saw a scholarly essay theorize that one of the reasons for this horrible track record is that economists are afraid of the backslash if they incorrectly predict a recession, because they see no big backlash in predicting the status quo.

I think the chances of a recession are larger with Trump than with anyone else in power due to his lack of understanding of the economy and his bad policy decisions.

[allgood33]

1. When it hits at the end of 2019, Trump will just blame the Democrats in the House and state houses.

[rampartc]

3. +1

trumpists will repeat it as if it were true.

they still believe that obama forced the banksters to lend mortgages to blacks and that barney frank caused the banks to fail. if they win, that will become history.

[rampartc]

2. everything that trump, and conservatives in general.

believe about the economy is based on flawed models and wishful thinking

but bear in mind that the best models are flawed, and that predictions of disaster are considered self fulfilling. this leads to a great reluctance of most mature economists to see the obvious.

an interesting little book is john kenneth galbraith's "the great crash 1929." america's bankers and economists were optimistic through the entire depression, and why not? they weren't in soup lines.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Crash-1929-Kenneth-Galbraith/dp/0547248164

[Garrett78]

4. A recession is inevitable. For one thing, we have a political party in power that...

...promotes voodoo economics, or the notion that tax revenue will increase if taxes are cut. Of course, I don't think they truly believe that. But it serves the interests of the ruling class. Republicans don't believe most of what they spew, but they can count on the ignorance of their supporters.

[pansypoo53219]

5. ebay sales suck. is it here?

[Squinch]

6. Republicans always trash the economy. As sure as death and taxes.