40 Seats flipped Update - Final. Count 235D. 200ReTHUGs

[malaise]

Last edited Wed Nov 28, 2018, 03:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Nicely done Dems

[Achilleaze]

1. The redeeming 4-0h (D). A win for American democracy!

[malaise]

3. Love it

[MLAA]

2. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏽👏🏾👏🏿👏🏿

[Baitball Blogger]

4. 538 was on the money

[malaise]

12. Yep

[Hortensis]

5. Nicely done! :) Plus 7 govs, 349 state legislative seats.

Let's also claim great advances in Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, because they were. The blue wave is so strong, with so many wins at legislature levels, that we're overly disappointed at losing those major races in traditionally red, even blood-red, states that just a handful of years ago mostly had no races at all, just token candidacies.

Mississippi, btw, is 37% black. Shockingly, I learned that 90% of MS whites are Republicans -- in this era! All I could think is that over the years many of the more liberal people must have left. So I went and looked. Yes. That's what's happened to MS. This from 12/2017 does not mention race or personality orientation, but MS's population loss does include major, ongoing youth and brain drains.

The exodus out of Mississippi shows no signs of abating, according to Census estimates released today (12/2017). ... The outflow has been persistent and exceptional: Mississippi has lost more people than we have attracted in each calendar year since 2010, despite being located in middle of the fastest-growing region in America.

Mississippians under 35 account for nearly 90% of net migration losses. The only age range Mississippi is attracting is 55-64. (IRS; my calculations) ...

The more education a person gets, the less likely they are to live in Mississippi. ...

Only half of recent graduates from Mississippi’s four-year public universities are working in the state five years after receiving a degree. ...

Each year of brain drain leaches an additional $100-150 million in net personal income out of the state, which compounds over time as those who have moved away put down roots and build careers. Mississippi’s movers from 2011-2016 transmitted a cumulative $1.4 billion in income to other states. ...

http://www.rethinkms.org/2017/12/21/new-census-data-ol-story-people-keep-leaving-mississippi/

Amid big problems for this state, unquestionably provoking great anxiety and thus greater protective conservatism, there is a good auger for the future: A fair number of those who voted for this absolutely terrible candidate to be their governor (!) will die off or otherwise stop voting over the next decade.

[PatSeg]

10. One of the problems for educated people

in Mississippi is the lack of employment opportunities. There are no real urban areas, unless someone was to commute to New Orleans. There is some tourism on the Gulf, but that is pretty anemic compared to other states.

Overall, it is a rather unattractive, uninspiring place to live, especially for young people.

[NewJeffCT]

19. Even the colleges in Mississippi

aren't rated all that highly overall - at least Southern states like Florida, Georgia and North Carolina have good public universities

Forbes' latest ratings have Univ of Mississippi at #367 and Mississippi State at #419

By comparison - University of Florida is #68, Georgia Tech is #88, University of Georgia is #103 and UNC-Chapel Hill is #47. While I know overall rankings don't tell you everything, is it any wonder why those Southern states are seeing population growth as compared to Mississippi?

[PatSeg]

27. Many, many years ago,

I went to high school in Gulfport for a year and half. I had left a high school in the Chicago suburbs and the contrast was incredible. It is so sad to see that now decades later, they don't seem to have changed all that much. The rest of the world has just passed them by.

[Hortensis]

23. Yes. This has been going on for a very long time.

I read that the last economic boom in MS, when it wasn't falling farther and farther behind other states, was in the 1990s with growth of a casino industry. Very sad. It's a study in very bad conservative management. As tax revenue has tanked, the legislature has actually cut taxes further, with its largest ever in 2017, apparently wanting to compete at least in ideological stupidity and betrayal with its wealthier neighbor states.

We have friends with a nice home and lots of family in Mississippi. Let's face it, large numbers of people do want to stay where they were raised, don't feel any desire to seek out vibrant, enterprising surroundings with many cultural amenities somewhere else. But, as you say, they do need decent jobs.

Electing this mean, small, profoundly incompetent person as governor is just going to accelerate the spiral. I feel a little sick thinking about they've done.

[PatSeg]

28. As I said in the above comment,

I lived in Gulfport for a year and half back in the 1960s. There was no real industry back then and the poverty was shocking. I visited ten years later and there was some improvement as there were some government jobs, as well as government housing. Mississippi was being forced into the 20th century, but not very willingly it seemed.

When I watched Cindy Hyde-Smith on television, she reminds of people I knew back then. So sad to see that many people have not really changed.

[Hortensis]

34. We see again and again how policies intended to

protect white superiority and maintain oppression of minorities retards the growth of wellbeing for everyone, even destroys wellbeing.

On the plus side, although our stock of fools is constantly replenished, these attitudes are by far strongest in older generations. I'd love to see a poll on how many families forbid talking about politics around grandpa.

You know, although this Mississippi mentality has increasingly come to dominate the Republican Party since the 1960s, it may have finally already peaked. The midterms results certainly suggest that some conservatives, half of whom no longer identify Republican, are finally seeing where they're being taken and don't like it.

[PatSeg]

44. Yes

There are conservatives who finally are seeing the republican party for what it really is. I guess we just have to be patient, but it is very hard.

[paulkienitz]

56. my parents fostered a Mississippian teenager

of color, and helped her and two of her brothers get good California educations and careers. One of them was only supposed to visit for a week or two, and somehow just never went back. If the girl they fostered had stayed there she probably would have had very little opportunity; she instead was able to become head of HR for a bank. I conclude that even for those with strong ties to the state, it just kinda sucks.

[PatSeg]

57. Yes, does kinda suck

For those who never leave, there is a sameness to life, even a lethargy. I suppose to some it is comfortable, whereas for me it would be suffocating.

That is great what your parents did. I'm sure it made a huge difference in their lives.

[malaise]

13. Excellent post

Should be an OP

[spooky3]

33. When will the leaders of these states learn that

Last edited Sat Dec 1, 2018, 11:41 AM - Edit history (1)

businesses will not move there if people aren’t well educated, which leads to a vicious downward circle?

[Hortensis]

62. Good question. A lot of leaders like their own

lives among people who are doing just fine. Practically a definition of conservatism is resistance to change, and it's obviously concreted in down there.

Geography, as always, provides additional, underlying big factors, but I can't remember now any of what I read some time ago. We've pretty much beat malaria and other endemic diseases. You know they're playing an adverse role when a whole state is chronically underdeveloped, though. Global warming's going to be very hard on MS.

[malaise]

60. Excellent post

Thanks

[Hortensis]

61. Thank you for all your valuable posts, Malaise.

[malaise]

63. Back at you sis

[George II]

65. I read somewhere yesterday that the state seat gain is up to 385 or so. That's actually...

...more than 40% of the 900 "losses" over the last 10 years. All those seats regained in one night.

[lagomorph777]

66. Wow, if accurate that's an AMAZING feat!

[Hortensis]

67. Fabulous. Noting that probably 100% of the 10-year loss was

the result of intensely unprincipled, corrupt, anti-democratic, usually illicit and often illegal gerrymandering and various techniques of widespread election theft.

They have to because what they have become is on the wrong side of history, cannot tell the truth about their betraying agendas, and are inexorably losing to various types of demographic progressions in age, race, religion, gender, and so on.

[George II]

69. Here's where I read it, it's a tweet with no backup, but apparently it's from the DCCC:

Link to tweet

[watoos]

6. I don't know Malaise,

Remember when Trump went on TV the day after the election and declared a great Republican victory?

I'm thinking maybe 35% of the country still thinks that Republicans won.

This shows what I have been preaching for many years now, the power of the corporate controlled M$M. The right wing media has glossed over the scope of this victory. You posted another thread about the scope of this victory and a few took exception to your claim.

Do you realize that over 9 million more votes were cast for Democrats, which is an astounding record. Republicans can thank their lucky stars for gerrymandering, voter suppression, and flat out cheating or the outcome would have been even worse.

We need to control the states in 2020 when districts get realigned.

[PatSeg]

11. And it doesn't help when Trump tells

his base, "Just remember, what you are seeing and what you are reading is not what's happening." These people wouldn't believe the sun is shining if the MSM told them so.

[malaise]

14. It's our job to correct that

Likewise Dems need to remind everyone who gave them basic social needs from Day One.

[ananda]

16. I'd add GOP treason to the mix as well.

..

[Raster]

7. I guess there really is a sanity clause...

...

2018 was just the opening act.
VOTE. EVER. REPUBLICAN. OUT. OF. OFFICE.
No excuses. No exceptions.
The GOP* of tRump* has proved beyond all doubt that THEY. ARE. UNFIT. TO. GOVERN.

[rzemanfl]

8. Y.

Not a question, you just need one.

[Honeycombe8]

9. CNN & Vox say 39. Here's a list.

Here's a list (it includes the New Mexico win by a Dem. woman, Xochitl Small):

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18070396/midterm-elections-2018-live-results-house-seats-flip

Did they miss one?

[Greg K]

15. Mississippi was the Senate race...

CA-21 is still outstanding in the House, but looking good for Dem. Would be the 40th House pickup.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/

[Honeycombe8]

17. Oh, that's right. Pardon me! I corrected my post. It's 39, then. With one left to go.

I thought all the races were done.

If we win CA-21, that makes 40! Wow!!! How great is THAT???!!!

[watoos]

18. Meh, maybe that was just Anderson Cooper?

Anderson, Tweety, and Wolf are in the running for lowest score on Jeopardy.

[Honeycombe8]

21. No. It's everywhere. 39. 538, Vox, CNN....

There is one race left, as another poster points out: CA-21, where they are hand counting the remaining ballots. It's looking good for the Democrat, but it's very close.

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Your Vox list

is not including CA-21 which the NYT is finally showing as blue after they had already called it for the GOP earlier but apparently revoked that call. Plus the NYT haven't called the flipped NY-22 either (although they claim that AP is compiling final results for them now - from what I understand, the final count for that district was supposed to happen yesterday).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

And as a clarification for this Vox excerpt -

So far, Democrats have won 41 GOP-held seats for a net gain of 39 seats, more than the 23 they needed to take control of Congress. Democrats have lost two seats they previously held — one in Minnesota and one in Pennsylvania — but they still cruised to a new House majority.

... for some ridiculous reason, the lazy media keeps claiming that Dems "lost a seat" in PA and refuse to indicate that the districts were redrawn so you can't compare apples to apples in that instance. I.e., as you know, there was a special election here in March where Conor Lamb flipped a seat. That took the PA delegation from 13 (R) - 5 (D) to 12 (R) - 6 (D). Then the map was redrawn as a result of gerrymandering court cases, to the point where the numbers for the new districts no longer corresponded to the old ones, so Conor ran in a slightly different area for the general election, that was due to a redrawn district, and he won that seat. Meanwhile, a Republican won a redrawn seat in a GOP area nearby, so there was no change with respect to numbers over on that side of the state.

I.e., there wasn't a "Democratic" seat in addition that flipped to the GOP. It was a GOP seat that was in an area where the GOP already had a seat and the media is trying to count Conor twice - as winning a seat and losing a seat despite the fact that the "seats" are not the same due to the redrawn map.

The key being that this year in PA (including the special election), (D)s picked up 4 seats total, taking our 2018 congressional delegation from the original 13 (R) - 5 (D) to 9 (R) - 9 (D).

(sorry for the rant as a response to your query )

[Honeycombe8]

25. CA-21 is still counting. All I know is that 538, CNN, and Vox all have 39 as official flip #.

CA-21 is still counting and is close. The Dem is looking good there. But it's not over.

Conor Lamb is in the list of 39 flips.

I'm no expert. All I know is that 538, CNN, and Vox have an official number of 39.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18070396/midterm-elections-2018-live-results-house-seats-flip

[BumRushDaShow]

31. Agree and it should be (at least) 39 at this point

But was also semi-ranting against the NYT for not showing NY-22 as a flip other than Tenney not having conceded yet (although they were quick to call CA-21 as GOP and slow to change the counts to reflect it going blue until yesterday - they did the same with UT-4).

[DeminPennswoods]

39. NBC/MSNBC retracted their call for the R in CA21 yesterday

They are now saying "too close to call".

[Hermit-The-Prog]

29. thanks for the informative rant

At
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2018/nov/06/midterm-elections-2018-live-results-latest-winners-and-seats?CMP=results_blog#house

it shows PA 17th with 2 incumbents, PA 13th and 14th with NO incumbent and yet both are shown as "flipped" R. That's not the only weirdity on the PA map. Apparently, none of the media knew how to handle the redrawn map.

The numbers I read, before the successful court case, suggested that PA as a whole should be about evenly split, except for the gerrymandering. The results of the election after the redrawn map reflect that.

[BumRushDaShow]

35. Yeah to me, that is just lazy

What should be considered is this - What was the number of seats for each party under the 115th Congress vs the numbers for the incoming 116th Congress.

Old map -




New map -

PA-17 on the old map was in eastern PA and PA-17 on the new map is in western PA.

PA-14 on the old map was in western PA basically Pittsburgh and surrounding suburbs (Allegheny County) and PA-14 on the new map is now SW PA.

PA-13 on the old map snaked through 2 counties in SE PA and PA-13 on the new map is basically South Central PA.

There is no way to try to do "both sides" bullshit with any "flips" because all of the districts were renumbered, going from east --> west.

What they SHOULD do is note that in western PA, there was only 1 (D) rep (basically Pittsburgh and immediate area in Allegheny County) and now there are 2 (D) reps. And in SE/E PA, there were 4 (D) reps and now there are 7 (D) reps.

And yes, being evenly split is close but based on the registrations, it should be 10 (D) - 8 (R) - where that "additional" one really should have been the new PA-1 (which was the old PA-8... if there had been enough turnout), but I'll take what we got. As it is, we'll go through this all over again in a couple years (assuming PA doesn't lose any congressional seats).

[Hermit-The-Prog]

37. nice contrast

I had forgotten how convoluted the old map was. It really shows up when seen with the new one. Kid would have to really sharpen the crayon to stay within those lines. Thanks for the laugh!

[BumRushDaShow]

42. One of my sisters lives in what was once the infamous old PA-7

dubbed "Goofy kicking Donald Duck" -



Now she is in the new PA-5 with a Democrat at the helm (and she and her hubby are ecstatic)!

[DeminPennswoods]

41. They were both flipped by the same candidate

Under the old map, PA-18 (new PA-14) was flipped from R to D by Lamb in a special election. Under the new map, PA-18 is a majority R district and is now represented by an R (Renchesthaler) who won the open seat.

In Nov, using the new map PA-17 (old PA-12) was still represented by Rothfus (he lives in the new PA-17) as the incumbent. So, PA-17 did flip from R (Rothfus) to D (Lamb).

[BumRushDaShow]

43. But there is really only 1 flip and it happened during the special election

The convoluted case of the media trying to show some kind of R flip without explaining what happened is ridiculous because it assumes that there was a 2nd (D) who was already in office who lost to the GOP causing a flip to R. Whereas we are talking about the same 1 (D) running and winning in a redrawn district and an (R) retaking a geographic area (post-redraw) that they had lost in the special election (pre-redraw).

[unc70]

20. Might depend on how one counts Connor Lamb

[Honeycombe8]

22. He's in the list of 39.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18070396/midterm-elections-2018-live-results-house-seats-flip

The OP doesn't provide a link to a list, so maybe he's counting the last unresolved race CA-21, where it's looking good for the Democrat. But that one is not over, and it's close.

[malaise]

26. Yep my 40 includes CA 21

TJ Cox is leading

[Brother Buzz]

32. My Magic 8-Ball thinks it's in the bag, but officially....

it's still to close to call. We gotta wait a bit more before we pop the cork.

[malaise]

46. It's in the bag

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211484180

[Brother Buzz]

47. Projection is the operative word, no?

That being said, my Magic 8-Ball has been spot-on lately.

[kydo]

30. Actually it was 42 flips as rethugs flipped 2. However ....

Winning 42 to 2 in any sport is a frigging blow out.

The net gain was 40. Can you say big strong blue wave? I can. And it will only get bigger and stronger.

[BumRushDaShow]

40. You can't count the purported PA "flip to GOP" as any kind of "flip"

Last edited Wed Nov 28, 2018, 12:24 PM - Edit history (1)

These media outlets are out of their friggin' minds. .

THERE WAS NOT A GOP "flip" in PA. Our map was redrawn so you can't compare the new districts to the old districts. Between the March special election and this latest general election, the GOP LOST 4 seats in PA. Period. And Democrats LOST NO SEATS IN PA!!!!

(sorry for rant )

[malaise]

48. I can say that with pleasure

The Con knows the truth and he is terrified

[mcar]

36. The biggest House win ever!

Surpassing the Watergate era. Why isn't the media running stories about Rs in disarray?

[drray23]

58. Its the biggest in terms of votes, not seats .

Not even close. The GOP won 60+ seats the year the tea party took over.

This is however the most margin on number of votes since Watergate. If districts weren't gerrymandered the way they are we would have won way more than 40 given the vote margin.

[oldlibdem]

38. Great job everyone!

Now let's get to work retaking the Senate and winning the Presidency .

[malaise]

45. Yes indeed

[pecosbob]

49. So long as Dems hold more seats than the Republicans and their pals the blue dogs combined

[dbackjon]

50. The GOP started the 115th Congress with 241 seats

They will start the 116th with 200 or 201 seats.

So either a 40 or 41 seat gain, depending on CA-21.

[Xipe Totec]

51. The Red wave was all those Republicans waving bye-bye! nt

[malaise]

53. You win the thread!

DUzy.

[beachbum bob]

52. 42 GOP seats were flipped and 2 democratic for net 40 seat gain

[libdem4life]

54. What you are now hearing is ... One Hand Clapping.

Isn't it a wonderful sound????

[Scurrilous]

55. K&R

[George II]

59. Woo hoo - we finally got that last one. 235 is a nice number!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

64. AP, guardian still showing 2 uncalled

NY-27 and CA-21.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2018/nov/06/midterm-elections-2018-live-results-latest-winners-and-seats?CMP=results_blog#house

[grantcart]

68. Sure glad they ran against Pelosi lolol