Need to Get Something Straight Regarding Manafort

[ProudLib72]

He's facing sentencing for those eight counts he was found guilty of back in August. Now, supposing he was sentenced. Rump could pardon him. That does not mean he goes free. He still has the other ten or eleven counts that he could be retried for. He also has added a few in recent weeks lying to Mueller's team. Rump cannot do a damned thing about that.

My questions:

1. Supposing Rump pardoned Manafort for the first eight counts, how long could the courts continue to keep Manafort in jail before retrying for the other ten or eleven counts? What is a reasonable estimate? Another year? Two years? I'm sure they could find a way to keep him there for a very long time, but I want to know what is a "reasonable" length we could expect.

2. Obviously Manafort knows that the longer they wait the less likely it will be that his buddy Rump will be in office to pardon him. So what the hell is his game plan here? Maybe I'm being completely stupid, but it seems like he continues to shoot himself in the foot. Is there any way in hell he would risk a life sentence just to protect Rump? Or does he feel safer surrounded by guards because Pooty Poot has a vial of polonium with his name on it?

[Jersey Devil]

1. Trump could pardon him for all offenses committed in the past until now

as long as they are federal offenses. It does not matter if he was tried for them or not or even if he was indicted or not.

[ProudLib72]

3. Yeah, but I mean that he is looking at ten or eleven more offenses that he could be retried for

So the question is, How long can they hold him till those are retried? Indefinitely? Remember how it was up to the judge to decide whether or not he wanted to retry those counts that resulted in a hung jury? And what about new counts for lying to Mueller? He's just racking up extra charges. At some point, Rump is going to be gone and will not be able to pardon him.

[Jersey Devil]

6. He can't be retried if he is pardoned for those crimes

You seem hung up on whether or not he is tried for them. It does not matter. A pardon for all crimes committed in the past covers them.

[ProudLib72]

7. Ah ha! I checked into that, and you're right. I was hung up on the outstanding indictments

Well crap! That just sucks.

[Me.]

2. He's Afraid Of A Bigger Crook THan Individual 1

and that polonium is a real reason to be afraid. Especially if his family has been threatened.

[ProudLib72]

4. Do you think he's intentionally rigging the game so he stays in jail?

Listening to Rachel it's just incredible! Either he is an inveterate liar who can't help himself (like Rump), or he wants to stay right where he is.

[Me.]

5. Can't Truthfully Answer That, Conjecture On My Part

as I don't know however, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks silence is his best option all around

[jberryhill]

11. I think he's not as stupid as Cohen, for certain

The advantage that Manafort has is that he knows, for certain, what he’s guilty of. He’s an intelligent guy, and probably has a good grip on what are his best options, albeit among a number of shitty options.

[Jarqui]

8. He's trying to stay on a strict, nerve-agent free and bone saw free diet

If they put him away for the rest of his life (which they might), he may regret that diet.

In his plea deal, which still has weight and validity, he also plead guilty to state level crimes.
If Trump pardons him, it can only be for federal crimes. They would just keep him locked up until he could be sentenced for state level crimes. Even if Gamble v USA prevails, they cannot get double jeopardy for tax evasion. Mueller would probably have some other crimes added. He's screwed.

A lot of people are howling "stupid ass - he should have copped a deal!!". An interesting fact came out tonight: Cohen stopped short of full cooperation too. Contrary to Cohen's stated reason - to allow him to be sentenced earlier, I suspect they both did it for the same reason: the judge might be lenient on a number of transgressions but his limits would be really tested if these two were traitors (as it appears they were). That's probably why they've been as harsh with Cohen as they've been. Cohen and Manafort appear to have put their own greed ahead of their country and that's probably worse to most Americans than anything Richard Nixon and his clowns did (ignoring that most didn't know he scuttled Vietnam peace behind the scenes to get elected). This paragraph is partly conjecture on my part but I think that I have reasonable foundation. I think that missing part in these documents might be the most damning.

If and when folks join those dots, they will not let Mueller's work be dismissed. These people may deserve gallows consideration.

[ProudLib72]

10. You say that his plea deal still has weight and validity

I take what you said to mean that his guilty plea on state level crimes still holds. He has torpedoed any deal for reduced sentencing he ever had.

[Jarqui]

16. "He has torpedoed any deal for reduced sentencing he ever had."

Absolutely

but everything else he signed off on in his deal still sticks and can be held against him without having to argue about it in court. The only debate is the sentences for his crimes - not guilt or innocence.

[jberryhill]

9. Manafort would be an idiot to start telling the truth now

[ProudLib72]

12. Why? Is it because his Russian friends would not take kindly to his telling the truth?

Or is there something else that I'm missing?

[jberryhill]

13. For one, yeah

Even aside from anything he’s being prosecuted for now, he knows a lot of nasty things about the Russians and, for that matter, about Duterte.

Putin is not even his first rodeo. He cut his teeth working for Ferdinand Marcos.

He’s hardcore dirty, and has been involved in a lot of ugly for a very, very long time.

[ProudLib72]

14. That raises the question of why he took a deal in the first place

He held out for a long time. Took the deal. Then reneged on it. The only reason I could think of for his taking it in the first place was that maybe it allowed him more access with lawyers who then communicated with the WH. But how would taking the deal have looked to any of those people you've mentioned who might be listening in? I'm telling you, there is something else we just aren't privy to here. Unless his lawyers were also communicating with the Russians somehow and he got the go ahead.

Here, I'm putting on my thinking cap for this one:

[jberryhill]

15. The beautiful thing about Paul Manafort is...

...when has he ever made an honest deal with anyone?

If he swallowed a nail, he’d shit a corkscrew.

I admire the thoroughness and utter purity of his complete corruption.

Look at that grin:



That’s a man at peace with who he is.

[dalton99a]

17. Why was Manafort trying to protect Konstantin Kilimnik?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/07/takeaways-michael-cohen-sentencing-filings/

...

5. Manafort’s alleged lies were also Russia-focused — and deal with a big unknown

As soon as we found out last week that Manafort had allegedly lied to Mueller’s team, in violation of his cooperation deal, the question was about what. What was worth lying about for a man whose cooperation was required for the leniency he apparently sought?

Friday’s filing in that case doesn’t shed much light on what Mueller knows, but it is noteworthy how much of Manafort’s allegedly lying pertain to his business colleague in Ukraine, Konstantin Kilimnik, whom the U.S. government has said has ties to Russian intelligence.

Mueller’s team says Manafort lied about a meeting with Kilimnik and also about Kilimnik’s role in “a criminal conspiracy” to get two witnesses against Manafort to alter their testimony.

Much of the document is redacted, but the sheer volume of Kilimnik in it leads to an obvious question: Why was Manafort trying to protect him? And could this link somehow play in the broader collusion probe? Was Manafort really worried about a foreign national being in trouble, or was he worried about Mueller connecting some dots that he didn’t want connected?

Lots more questions. Not a whole lot more answers. But we have a little better idea of what Mueller is interested in, and what might be being covered up.

[ProudLib72]

18. Hmmmm, that is a tough question

Kilimnik is in Moscow now, right? He's untouchable. So why protect him? My only theory is that someone else knows a lot about the Manafort/Kilimnik association and has told Mueller. Manafort lied trying to save himself. In other words, Kilimnik is another covefefe boy. Because that report is so heavily redacted, it's impossible to say for sure. I agree that it is intriguing.