General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCNN poll: Biden 30%, Sanders 14%, O'Rourke 9%
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-beto-orourke-rising/index.htmlRenew Deal
(84,834 posts)Yosemito
(648 posts)We could even end up with a nominee thats not even among those mentioned in the polls at all.
Or what if Obama endorses Kamala Harris, or Beto ORourke for example?
What did Joe Bidens family tells him not to run?
I think its just too early.
DemocratSinceBirth
(101,752 posts)NCjack
(10,297 posts)Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)... when it was two-way race, and so if this turns into a two-way race he may get into the 40s or better.
Demsrule86
(71,525 posts)Cha
(317,970 posts)hurt him with Dems.
Bucky
(55,334 posts)If he would just join up, he'd be the leader of the pack thru 2019. I expect the voters will go with someone new. Mad respect to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, and to Hillary if she runs again, but it's time to pass the torch. We have a lot of experienced and dynamic leaders under the age of 70 ready to take on Tangerine Mussolini
elocs
(24,486 posts)Yes, the Democratic Party is good enough for Sanders to use to run for president, just not good enough for him to join.
Bucky
(55,334 posts)I think it's a more telling indictment of the party's leadership. An independent running for our nomination is a legit move, provided he follows small-d democratic processes. It was a clean election and he lost and he supported our nominee. I got no gripes. I'm not a huge fan of all his policies, but he played by the rules (as did Clinton, by and large). But there was room for a LOT more serious voices in 2016 and it would have been a richer and more satisfying nomination fight if we'd been allowed the full range of leaders to choose from.
elocs
(24,486 posts)Did he ever come flat out and tell his supporters to vote for Clinton?
Imagine what the BoBs would have said had he got the nomination and lost the general election to Trump and it was found that lots of Clinton backers refused to vote for him or voted for a 3rd party. You'd still be hearing the screaming around the world.
Bucky
(55,334 posts)There's even videos out there of him saying just that.
Here is a treasure trove of links to that
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Sanders+endorses+Clinton+2016
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)where the interviewer said if he endorsed Clinton.
His answer was weaselly every time and some form of "we have to defeat Donald Trump and the only way to do that is vote for Hillary Clinton."
He's dead to me (unless he wins the nom, which will not happen).
elocs
(24,486 posts)but he seemed less than enthusiastic about campaigning for her, hence the "faint praise". Sanders certainly did not go all out to convince his supporters that they should vote for Clinton.
No, my memory is not faulty in that regard.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I think that a lot of voters that voted for him in the primary, but switched to Hillary for the General, saw how little he worked for her during the fall campaign. For me that sticks out like a sore thumb even today. If he had busted his ass for her and she still lost, he would likely be the clear front runner now. Also, not releasing his tax returns doesn't help and if he tries that this time around in the primaries, he just as well should pack up and go home.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Last edited Sat Dec 15, 2018, 12:17 PM - Edit history (1)
is waiting to as soon as they have a new name to attach to, which they do not yet. As you and others say, being nationally known now is far more handicap than otherwise for Sanders. Because.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Or most likely nominee.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)It's his nature to strongly disagree with those who won't take his advice.
But if he doesn't manage to put together a left wing populist candidacy, someone else will, and the Pubs and Putin will make sure whoever it ends up being gets lots of media hype.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)And do stuff that is damaging to the Democratic Party, like disrupt our convention and boo speakers.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)unlike Sanders a genuine left-of-Hillary doer, but of course he didn't.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And given that Clinton was victimized by 30 years of hate, Sanders was bound to get a lot of votes.
The 2020 field will be much larger, there will be fewer caucuses, etc. Sanders didn't stand a chance in 2016 and he'll have even less reason to stick around in 2020. If he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he needs to exit.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)But not quite for the Clinton alternative.
How about Elizabeth Warren? Like O'Malley, she's the real thing. She was THE one who first energized demand for bigger change and in so doing revealed hidden Democratic electorate demand for bigger, more aggressive change than any of the polls had shown. To a degree that I subsequently wondered if the pollsters were corrupt. Why hadn't they been asking the right questions? I'd always wanted more, but my fellow Dem voters polled relatively passive and uncaring. Warren was the one who revealed that was very wrong!
Only when Warren disappointed many by declining to run for president did Sanders step forward from 25+ years of congressional obscurity into the vacuum of excited demand that she created. And...apres ca le deluge.
As for Sanders not standing a chance in 2016, yes, but look what happened before his candidacy finally, belatedly ran its course. I believe we are already once again seeing the same hostile actors who promoted a spoiler candidacy in 2016 active for the same purpose.
Sanders isn't on any of the foreign relations committees, but here's Sanders (not, say, any of our Democratic senators who are, including ranking Sen. Bob Menendez) put in front of the cameras with Sen. Mike Lee by the Republican leadership. Why? In big part to deny all the attempts by Democratic senators to stop what has culminated in genocide in Yemen, and of course to portray him as a leader instead of the real things among the Democrats.
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Garrett78
(10,721 posts)O'Malley was the only other semi-serious candidate and he never gained traction, in part because he couldn't distinguish himself enough from Clinton.
There are a number of potential 2020 candidates, including Warren, who threaten Bernie's ability to win the predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire. And then he's finished.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)all right, and possibly vice versa. After all, he attracted some people she would not. She achieved her advances by working from within, and she would never risk throwing the nation to what is increasingly a white nationalist/authoritarian threat.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...will take a bite out of his support base. And then there's the fact that there will be fewer caucuses. Sanders has no chance.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)My worry is not some charismatic radical carrying away 60 million Democratic voters Trump-style but rather a spoiler candidacy once again throwing the nation to the Republicans by just a few percent. Just look at how narrow many races have been over the past few years. Election experts expect that to continue for a while, and there is grave danger of losing everything in 2020 in spite of what the Republican Party has become.
Even because of what they have become. Authoritarian populism, nationalist populism, fascism, whatever you want to call it, is on the rise around the planet. Polls show real support here for giving up the vote and "trying" authoritarian government instead.
Demsrule86
(71,525 posts)in 08 and 12. I was seriously worried about Pres. Obama's chances in 12. I worked that campaign. I believe Joe Biden and Bill Clinton helped tremendously. Bill called himself the explainer in chief. He was amazing and so was Biden.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I tell you, I could not sleep that night after that first debate when President Obama let Romney be the aggressor. But then came the Veep debate a week or two later and Joe took Lyin Ryan behind the woodshed. Then President Obama found his stride in the last debates and forced Romney to say all type of stupid stuff. I actually could not watch the second debate, I was so nervous after the first one, but Romney found his binder full of women and then shot himself in the foot from then on, under relentless pressure from President Obama.
redstatebluegirl
(12,799 posts)Last edited Mon Dec 17, 2018, 10:55 AM - Edit history (1)
No Democrat will be able to get away with that and they shouldn't.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Is people like Jill Stein and others on the extreme left (or pseudo right) used Hillary's tax return releases and financial disclosures to pick on her in the General about stuff like stock holdings (Keystone related stocks that she most likely didn't know that she owned). I occasionally see some here on DU now mouthing that nonsense. Have we heard a peep here about the Keystone Pipeline from that set in the last year? Hell NO! They will only bring that up to damage democrats, while Trump and his henchpeople destroy the environment right before our eyes.
Kamala Harris and her husband are pretty well off, will the boo birds find some stock holdings that she may not even be aware of to make a major case against her? The guess here is that they will, but they will be perfectly ok with one person releasing nothing at all.
redstatebluegirl
(12,799 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sanders has even less of a chance than he had in 2016, which is to say he has no chance.
Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)...maybe that will work out better for him.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sanders was the only option for those who had succumbed to 30 years of Hillary hate. Even then, the race was over by Super Tuesday. And, again, there may only be half as many caucuses in 2020.
He won't have a single polarizing opponent in 2020. He benefits from the fact that 2 states lacking diversity kick things off, but that won't save him. It'll be downhill after New Hampshire. He may not even win New Hampshire.
Bucky
(55,334 posts)You've entirely invented the idea that Bernie was susceptible to hatred for Hillary Clinton. He ran on policy differences and did so honorably.
But I do agree that he benefited from her having scared everyone else out of the field in 2016. Democrats do bad at coronations. That's why the kids flocked to the socialist. If you want to blame anyone for the Clinton hatred, blame the kids, blame them 20-somethings.
I knew we were in trouble 3 years ago. I was dating a 20 something at the time (yeah, shame on me). And as the political season approached, I was shocked to discover that she and all of her liberal and Progressive friends had just the harshest attitudes against Hillary Clinton. They really disliked her as a corrupt insider. They knew nothing about her advocacy for social justice over the years.
And that is exactly why we need to bring in a younger, fresher, untarnished candidate. Yes, the Republicans will smear whoever we nominate. That's what they do. But it turns out that 30 years of unrelenting character assassination makes a difference in a candidate's public perceptions. We should at least make them start over from scratch
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sanders was the only option for those who had succumbed to 30 years of Hillary hate.
Bucky
(55,334 posts)But I had a hell of a rant there, didn't I?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)No worries.
George II
(67,782 posts)lapucelle
(20,988 posts)Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)...choose between Joe Biden, who wrote it, and Bernie Sanders, who spoke out against it but voted for it, then voting for Bernie makes more sense.
George II
(67,782 posts)...there are dozens of other issues, not the least being stricter gun controls and Russia sanctions. Sanders was against both.
In fact, as much as Sanders talks about being pro-universal health care, he voted against the bill proposed by Bill Clinton in his first term.
Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)...on Clintons healthcare reform ideas in the 1990s.
Bernie has a mixed record on gun control, but he has always supported a ban on assault rifles.
Regarding sanctions, the same bill had sanctions on Russia and Iran. Bernie opposed the latter as going against the Iran nuclear deal.
George II
(67,782 posts)
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...white millennials and caucuses (which there will be fewer of in 2020) can only take a candidate so far. Especially when other candidates take a big bite out of that support base.
George II
(67,782 posts)Delegates are from 2016, they may be slightly different in 2020 due to changes in allocations. Barring any stubbornness of any candidate, we should have a very good idea of who our nominee will be by then. The big thing is California moving their primary up from June to Super Tuesday.
By March 17 Democrats will have chosen 2,244 of the 4,051 pledged delegates available, 55%
February
44 Iowa
24 New Hampshire
35 Nevada
53 South Carolina
March 3
53 Alabama
475 California
91 Massachusetts
107 North Carolina
38 Oklahoma
67 Tennessee
222 Texas
16 Vermont
95 Virginia
March 7
51 Louisiana
March 10
25 Hawaii
23 Idaho
130 Michigan
36 Mississippi
71 Missouri
143 Ohio
March 17
75 Arizona
214 Florida
156 Illinois
That's 2,244 of the 4,051 pledged delegates available, 55%
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As I indicated in this post, much will depend on how many candidates are still in the race at that point. And on who those candidates are.
Even if we start out with the largest field of candidates we've ever had, which seems likely, I think we'll probably have a good idea who our nominee will be by the close of March 17. And it won't be Sanders. I don't think it'll be Biden either.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)California and Texas on the same day, close to 800 delegates? That is potentially a knockout punch for the candidate that get a good number of those. I agree that it won't be Bernie, Cali and Texas were not good to him last time. But Joe, we will have to wait and see.
lapucelle
(20,988 posts)lapucelle
(20,988 posts)over a CNN analyst's ranked projections of presidential contenders.
https://www.mediaite.com/online/cenk-uygur-ridicules-cnns-harry-entens-dem-prez-rankings-zero-percent-chance-booker-and-klobuchar-win/
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)In 2016, he was still insisting - long after Super Tuesday - that Sanders would be the nominee. "Bernie math" delusion was on full display.
And he was totally dismissive of the primaries in the Deep South. But I guess winning (caucuses no less) in places like OK, NE, UT, ID, AK and WY is somehow a sign of Bernie's strength with the Democratic electorate.
George II
(67,782 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)We may like to think the new rules will keep him from running, but it would be a public relations nightmare if we did so.
However, this time around, he won't have as much justification for staying in the race, especially if he loses either or both of those first 2 contests. It won't be a 1-on-1 race like it was in 2016 after Iowa. He won't be facing off against a candidate who had been made the target of hatred for the last 3 decades. He'll potentially be facing Harris, Castro, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Brown, Murphy, Holder, Garcetti, Gillibrand, Inslee, Beto, Biden, etc. Several of those will make it tough for him to win either Iowa or New Hampshire. And others will make Super Tuesday the nail in the coffin the way it was in 2016.
George II
(67,782 posts)....that are trying to get release of tax returns to be a qualification for primary candidacy aren't successful, the court of public opinion will not allow him to hide his tax returns again.
He will not be handled with kid gloves this time around, which may mean he doesn't become a viable candidate at all.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)The 2016 race was over on Super Tuesday. Most of his victories came via caucuses, which are a disgrace.
Demsrule86
(71,525 posts)16 style general. No one who ran in 16 should run in 20.
dubyadiprecession
(7,371 posts)..he can forget it.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)JCanete
(5,272 posts)dubyadiprecession
(7,371 posts)...as she didnt endorse him, to say the least.
Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)NT
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)a full year before the primaries actually get under way. At this point all such polling is meaningless and the results simply indicate name recognition or wishful thinking.
I'm willing to bet that none of those top three will actually be at the top of the ballot in 2020. Not that I have any good sense of who might be, but it won't be one of those.
Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)...a poll had HRC, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders, in that order.
Among the ones who ran, that is what happened in the primary.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)Baltimike
(4,441 posts)StevieM
(10,578 posts)She would have won in 2016 in a landslide had it not been for Comey's multiple interventions into the race. He dominated that election from start to finish.
Baltimike
(4,441 posts)StevieM
(10,578 posts)her biggest fan. But she has earned a break.
I respect her desire to finally have somewhat of a break from the relentless McCarthyism that she has long been subjected to.
KPN
(17,260 posts)2020 maybe polls will start being relevant. My guess: Beto will skyrocket.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)former9thward
(33,424 posts)So I guess a poll would be relevant then....
KPN
(17,260 posts)Gothmog
(177,634 posts)StevieM
(10,578 posts)a man who supported Bush/Cheney for re-election.
I hope the other Democratic candidates don't let that fact go. It should absolutely be brought up.
Hassin Bin Sober
(27,429 posts)Nothing like being told by a billionaire we need to do less with more
BLOOMBERG: Winston Churchill once said, "You can always depend on America to do the right thing after exhausting all other possibilities." We've had a democracy for 235-odd years and it works in the end, and that's what's in important. Sequestering is here. It will go on for a while. It's not going to be the end of the world as we know it. And everybody was saying, "Oh, the worst-case scenario is exactly what we're going to implement." And now they're into the real world and they'll try to find ways to do more with less, and then hopefully Congress will come together and modify sequestering to cut things back where we can afford it and not where we can't. And keep in mind, no program to reduce the deficit makes any sense whatsoever unless you address the issue of entitlements, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, interest payment on the debt, which you can't touch, and defense spending. Everything else is tiny compared to that.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)That is lamentable.
question everything
(51,930 posts)a V.P. is supposed to be the "attack dog" which is why I am hesitating about Minnesota-Nice Klobuchar.
But yesterday I heard Heitkamp and McCaskill on PBS and I think that McCaskill will be a great V.P.
As we've seen, one does not need to hold office to be elected to the White House.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/sens-heitkamp-and-mccaskill-on-democratic-mistakes-and-a-culture-of-failure
DemocratSinceBirth
(101,752 posts)helpisontheway
(5,374 posts)the party apart in 2016. I do not want to see the psycho Sarandon and that Nina all over tv again. i would prefer a younger person as our nominee. If not, then Biden would probably be our best shot. I think he could get some of the white working class back. I also think African American turnout would be high again because of his connection to Obama (and because of what happened last time).
cynatnite
(31,011 posts)LiberalFighter
(53,544 posts)Kingofalldems
(40,115 posts)Farmer-Rick
(12,558 posts)After Kavanaugh and what he did to Anita Hill.......
Very surprising.
Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)NT
Farmer-Rick
(12,558 posts)sheshe2
(96,877 posts)Biden confronts the ghost of Anita Hill
It certainly was not his best moment, said former Rep. Pat Schroeder (D-Colo.), one of seven Democratic women who dramatically marched to the room where Senate Democrats were caucusing in 1991 in an attempt to make their case for why the vote on Thomas should be delayed as a result of Hill's accusations. To have railroaded that through and not listened to the other three women and let his colleagues absolutely tear her apart was absolutely horrible.
BlueintheSTL
(135 posts)Eric J in MN
(35,629 posts)...were the top two in the 2008 primary.
StevieM
(10,578 posts)They like to pretend that HRC had a historic lead and blew it to an unknown candidate who came out of nowhere.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)did not. There are fewer caucuses this time around, plus California just moved up to Super Tuesday. Big difference now. A guy like Biden can knock everyone else out on Super Tuesday, even if one of the others won lesser states, California alone is worth about 3 Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina total hauls. Basically, California wipes the slate clean.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As I wrote in this post, much will depend on how many candidates are still in the race--and who those candidates are. We may see some severe vote splitting, though I'm hoping the field will be down to 5 or fewer by Super Tuesday.
I don't know that Clinton didn't understand the impact caucuses would have. I don't think there was much she could do about the fact that they favor those who have the support of those most likely to turn out for caucuses (anti-"establishment," the most vocal, etc.). Many are unable and unwilling to take part in such a lengthy and public spectacle. It's good that more states are moving away from caucuses, and that every state will now have to accept absentee ballots. Caucuses need to go.
And starting off with Iowa (a caucus no less) and New Hampshire is something else that ought to change.
Caliman73
(11,767 posts)It is a fine line between reporting the story and trying to drive the story. As many other posters responded, it is too early to tell where the Democratic base is right now. Most of the people on the poll have not declared any intention to run. Many are still pondering and this kind of reporting just muddies the water.
We really need to stop treating elections like a commodity. All of these pollsters and cable news make money off of this stuff and make it into a business rather than the serious civic duty that elections actually are.
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)Hadn't heard that he joined yet. "Caucuses With" is not a party on the ballot.
George II
(67,782 posts)Me.
(35,454 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Demsrule86
(71,525 posts)yardwork
(69,139 posts)This is based only on name recognition, before anybody has even committed to run or begun to campaign.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)It's way to early.
still_one
(98,883 posts)it becomes real
Tipperary
(6,930 posts)This.
INdemo
(7,024 posts)They ask 50 people and call it a poll
And now we are going to hear how the Democrat hopefuls match up to Trump..never mind the fact that Trump probably wont run..he will resign?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But they do lead to lively discussions.