My fear is that if they dump Trump and nominate someone else in 2020

[pnwmom]

it will be Nikki Haley -- who in 2014 won re-election to the S.C. Governorship with 56% of the vote.

And if we have nominated a couple of white guys, whoever they may be, we have a good chance of losing -- and a generation of young women may have cast their first vote for a Republican for President.

Despite what most DUers think of Haley and her positions, most VOTERS don't know or care. She comes across as a nice person. And, for bonus points, she'd be the first Indian American. As to qualifications, she's been a Governor of a red state (satisfying the base) and an Ambassador, and she managed to escape the DT administration unscathed.

She is going to be a powerful adversary and she could single-handedly reverse the GOP's "women problem." The GOP could become the first party to ever put a woman in the Presidency.

Unless we figure out how to stop her. And it won't be with a couple of progressive white men, no matter how perfect their policies are.

[Cattledog]

1. I don't think women are that gullible.

[pnwmom]

4. All she needs to put her in the WH is a couple percent of Democratic women

to decide she looks good enough.

[Guppy]

9. yep you nailed it

Even if Pence runs it would affect the election. We will lose the overwhelming dislike of Trump and many of the republicans who crossed over in the suburbs will switch right back.

We need 2 straight elections of the suburban people voting democratic and then deliver in the first 2 years in ordr to realy start converting them.

That is why it is infuriating that many people on this website are putting their own concerns over winning and the party. I here it must be a woman and it must be a minority.

What it has to be is a winner and that might not be either of those choices.

[pnwmom]

14. Except I don't see how a white guy can beat her in the General.

One might stop her in the primary, if they fail to see her potential. But if she makes it to the General, watch out. I can already imagine our white guy on a debate stage with her -- the guy we nominated because Hillary lost to Trump. Except the opponent won't be Trump. She will be a good looking, well-spoken, brown woman.

[Guppy]

18. yeah she would be tough

even Beto would have a hard time. Beto blows away Trump.

Youth vs Old fart
smart vs dumb
cool vs dick
Future vs past


She would negate many of these advantages

[jpak]

30. Oppo research on Haley's performance as SC Gov. would be damning

My Dem SC relatives tell me she was a hot mess.

Yup

[0rganism]

41. i hope this concept can be communicated in 10 second sound-bytes

apparently we the electorate need our information pre-digested, like a mother bird feeding her chicks, for it to be useful in decision-making

[dawg day]

65. I remember some nutty SC Blogger who insisted they'd had an affair--

came to nothing-- he was something of a loon-- but that sort of thing kind of seems like smoke where there might be fire.

[kskiska]

111. She is not liked here in SC

because she took down the Confederate flag at the statehouse.

[pnwmom]

125. She was re-elected with 55% of the vote after she did that. n/t

[pnwmom]

123. She was re-elected with 55% of the vote. Not that much of a hot mess nt

[JustAnotherGen]

93. I respectfully disagree

She's not that great - and there are a lot of extremely misogynistic men and women in this country. A lot.

And just as we've never seen a Candidate or President like Trump before . . .

We've never seen the Stain of Trump. Where - if you were with him - then you were with him.

Ain't no takesy backsey Nikki. She was part of the evil.

[EleanorR]

36. Countered by an even higher percent of men who will never, ever vote for a woman.

[pnwmom]

38. How did she win election in the very red state of South Carolina?

That's how she could win among Republican men.

[Qutzupalotl]

73. SC is deep red. 56% in SC is not that high.

(I realize it’s high enough to win there. )

Don’t Rs usually get 60-70% in SC?

To your larger point, yes, Haley could be a strong candidate. Republican men were more crazy about Palin, but she is white. Obviously skin color wasn’t much of a deal-breaker in Haley’s case, but to me her numbers look a little low for an R in a red state.

[pnwmom]

79. Sanford won re-election with 55% of the vote. nt

[Qutzupalotl]

91. After confessing to infidelity.

I still think that’s low for an R in SC.

[LanternWaste]

39. The same men who praised Sarah Palin as a VP candidate? Or different men?

[EleanorR]

43. VP is different than president

And McCain lost.

[LanternWaste]

77. Distinctions lacking relevant difference to your premise. Poor tactic.

Same guys?

Or different guys?

[John Fante]

95. They praised Palin... then stated home.

Compare McCain's vote total to GWB's four years earlier.

[melman]

46. And how's that going to work?

How is pro-gun, anti-choice, anti-labor Nikki Haley suddenly going to 'look good enough'?

Nikki Haley with her 100% ratings from the NRA and the Club For Growth.

Nikki Haley who said of the ACA, ""If history has proven anything, it's that there is no such thing as a temporary entitlement program, and as House Republicans recognize, ObamaCare will be as bad a policy three years from now as it is today"


Nikki Haley who has said, "“Few things are as clearly defined as the right of individual Americans to own and use firearms. The right to bear arms was deemed so critical by our Founders that they spelled it out in absolute terms, and it is my belief that any governmental action that undermines that right is in turn undermining the very freedoms that built our great nation. I hold a Concealed Weapons Permit myself, and as governor, I will continue to fight against any government infringement on the 2nd Amendment.?"

and..

""There's a reason South Carolina's the new "it" state and it's because we're a union buster and it's because we continue to be fiscally responsible and business-friendly. And there's nothing the Democrats or the unions can do to make me change that."

and...

"Well, I mean how many times can we say the word "distraction"? That's what President Obama is doing. He doesn't want us talking about his record. He doesn't want us talking about how he has raised more debt in three years than President Bush has in eight. He doesn't want us talking about the fact that he said if we would take the stimulus money we would never get above eight percent unemployment. So this is a President that is trying to create distractions. There is no war on women. Women are doing well." [26]

all quotes from SourceWatch https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Nikki_Haley


How is she suddenly going to 'look good enough to " a couple per cent of Democratic women"? How?

[pnwmom]

49. In a national poll in April, she had 55% approval among Democrats.

https://www.axios.com/nikki-haley-most-popular-trump-administration-f3698066-76e3-462f-92cd-472e3c58ca7a.html?utm_source=sidebar

Haley's approval/disapproval: Republicans (75/9), Democrats (55/23), Independents (63/19).

[melman]

84. So are you suggesting

that that can't change when people actually, you know, learn more about her?

Or that she will be able to magically run with nothing about her record actually coming out?

[BlancheSplanchnik]

75. How? Propaganda, that's how.

Pukes are experts at that.

[LanternWaste]

78. 55% approval is more than "a couple."

I think you're attempting to miss the original point intentionally.

I certainly hope so. Otherwise...

[melman]

81. I think perhaps it's you that missed something

namely that the post I was responding to says:


" All she needs to put her in the WH is a couple percent of Democratic women to decide she looks good enough.

here.. have a look for yourself https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=11559984

[elocs]

8. You mean like the over 50% of white women who voted for Trump? n/t

[ashling]

134. In 2005 I was sitting in a bookstore

overhearing a young mom explaining why she voted for Bush even though ...

Yeah, I remember the "Security Moms" ...

[TeamPooka]

2. Just because Haley is a woman does not mean her policies will attract other women as voters.

[pnwmom]

5. She will frame herself as a centrist and will make many voters comfortable

with her positions.

And the R's will be so desperate after the Trump fiasco that they will support her.

[TeamPooka]

26. She will have to run in a primary to become the candidate

She will have to run in a primary to become the candidate.
You can start out as a moderate when the primaries begin for Republicans, but the process always pulls every candidate to the far right. Because that’s what Republican voters want
their base is far right
The centrists and moderates are gone
If Republican Party wanted a moderate candidate Donald Trump would not have become the president

[Bilegurken]

71. She can attempt that framing all she likes

However, the rough and tumble of presidential election year opposition researchers will make sure the public knows that her "moderation" is a myth, because it is.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. The racist, misogynist knuckledraggers that now comprise most of the GOP

are not likely to vote for a non-white woman at the top of the ticket, though I could imagine her in the VP spot.

[BamaRefugee]

100. Louisiana knuckle draggers had no problem with "non-white" Bobby Jindal!

[pecosbob]

6. Haley scares me...since the first time I heard of her.

[WeekiWater]

7. If she runs against him in a primary, and wins, I'll take it.

I don't dismiss a single point you make. I will say that it would leave them in shambles.

Dump Trump is a very easy way to say it would be a bloody primary. Wow would it leave them in shock.

[SWBTATTReg]

10. Can't believe that this party of repugs would ever nominate a woman to run for president...

they are too sexist to allow this being a party of old white men...if they do, I'll be shocked.

[thesquanderer]

87. They nominated Palin to be VP...

...with a presidential candidate who would have been 76 at the end of his first term.

[lark]

11. Nah, Repugs aren't that smart.

A lot of their schtick is controlling women, women should be seen and not heard, women have no say in their own bodies, and that crowd would never put her in the general election. Never! That's my guess and I'll stick with it unless proven wrong.

[pnwmom]

17. Then why did they elect her to be governor of the red state of South Carolina? n/t

[elocs]

12. Given the choice, I would rather run against a wounded, weakened, and shamed Trump

than any same Republican alternative. Because with Trump as the candidate there are sure to be a good number of Republicans who didn't like him but voted for him anyways because they either hated Clinton or the Supreme Court was important to them. Now they likely would not vote for the Democratic candidate but they might just not bother to vote at all.

[BannonsLiver]

13. Haley would never make it out of a GOP primary

She’s non-white and is a woman. For all the efforts here by some posters to paint our party as a bunch of women hating troglodytes, the reality is we’ve had female nominees. We’ve had a black nominee. Neither has ever come close to happening in the other party, so what’s different now, Haley’s going to buck that trend?

[pnwmom]

15. What would be different is that the GOP would be in tatters after Trump,

and Nikki Haley will be seen as turning the page.

[BannonsLiver]

19. Depends on how it went down

If it were party leaders somehow installing Haley that’s one thing. But there’s no way she comes out on top if the gop primary electorate is the entity making that call. These are the deplorables, after all. The cream of the crop.

[pnwmom]

21. She came out on top in South Carolina. Why couldn't she be successful

in enough other states to win the GOP nomination?

[pnwmom]

16. She's non-white and a woman -- which didn't stop her from being elected

Governor of South Carolina, a very red state.

[BannonsLiver]

20. State elections and national primary campaigns are not analogous

[pnwmom]

22. South Carolina is a red state, which IS analogous to other red states.

It's not like she was Governor of Massachusetts. She proved her ability to win in a state with typical GOP voters.

[BannonsLiver]

28. Haley vs Trump in 2020 who wins the nomination?

It’s a simple question. In your eyes, who wins that race? I’m not talking about just SC, I’m talking about the nomination.

[pnwmom]

35. My OP was predicated on him being out of the picture by then.

I don't think she would contest him.

[thesquanderer]

90. re: "Neither has ever come close to happening in the other party"

Palin for VP In 2008, with a 72 year old at the top of the ticket. That's pretty close.

[John Fante]

97. Palin wasn't nominated by Republican voters. McCain simply picked her.

[thesquanderer]

104. Party supported her. In fact, she was not even McCain's idea. (n/t)

[John Fante]

106. Party leaders supported her, not the voters.

Palin being tapped to be McCain's VP isn't remotely comparable to winning the GOP nomination for president outright. Apples and oranges comparison.

[kskiska]

112. McCain wanted Joe Lieberman

who was a Democrat, though he voted Republican most of the time. Bill Kristol took a bunch of people to Alaska to meet with Palin and they all fell in love with her and forced her on McCain. The rest is history.

[BannonsLiver]

103. In the end it wasn't close.

And we’re not talking about VPs. We’re talking about women running the table in a gop presidential nominating process where no woman has ever won a single caucus or primary.

[Sedona]

23. Not to worry

Repubs will never nominate a brown woman

[pnwmom]

24. They made a brown woman Governor of South Carolina,

where the confederacy is still spoken of reverently.

So it's foolish of us to assume that.

[BannonsLiver]

29. We've had a number of female GOP Senators and governors

Remind me again how many have won even a single primary or caucus in a GOP nominating process?

[pnwmom]

33. So? Nikki Haley proved that a brown woman could win in a very red state.

We ought to be PREPARED for her to win a GOP primary.

[Yavin4]

37. That was before Trump.

Trump changed the rules for Republican nominees forever.

[BannonsLiver]

40. Yeah.

I guess we’ll agree to disagree. I don’t think the GOP is on the cusp of some grand awakening with regard to women. I just don’t see a scintilla of evidence of that. I guess we can talk again when Trump is in the low 50s among gop voters. No sign of that either but I guess at some point it’s possible the spell is broken, though I wouldn’t hold your breath.

[Va Lefty]

25. You make some excellent points. Haley would be a formidable candidate

[jpak]

27. If they Dump Trump - they would have to nominate someone who was Anti-Trump

Before being Anti-Trump was cool

and that would be exactly nobody in the current GOP Moranverse...

Except Mitt Romney - and we saw how well he did last time - lol

[a kennedy]

31. Yikes.......could be an impressive opponent.

But as mentioned above...a non-white woman to lead the Repubs ticket??? Kinda have doubts as well.

[pnwmom]

32. Would you have expected her to win the Governorship of S. Carolina, a red state? n/t

[Yavin4]

34. The GOP is never going to go from Trump to an Indian-American, woman

A Nikki Haley nomination is nothing more than GOP establishment wishful thinking. Like Dr. Frankenstein, they've lost complete control of their monster--their racist base. Years of dog whistling came home to roost with Trump. They want a clear, unambiguous White nationalist.

[Tom Rinaldo]

42. I agree. Political parties have a strong will to survive. When Trump self explodes...

...they will need someone at the head of their ticket who is as different from Trump as possible, yet someone who Trump's hard core base won't reject for having been disloyal to Trump while he was President. And that would be Nikki Haley.

A slim majority of white women voted for Trump in 2016. No one can safely assume that Haley can't match that or do better as a woman running for President herself. She will play up her relative youth and her ethnic minority status to present herself as the candidate to lead America into the future. The right will grumble but she became Governor with Tea Party support. Crazies on the right would have gladly voted for Sarah Palin for President, gender would not have stopped them in her case. The Right sure as hell won't prefer whoever the Democrats run, and Trump's base won't just stay home, they will be looking for revenge against the Democrats.

Assuming Trump goes down in flames (and that is the assumption I am working with) I don't think Democrats can feel certain of victory against Haley running two white males, let alone an elderly white male with a younger white male running mate.

[stopbush]

44. So what?

[GulfCoast66]

45. The base of their party hates her with venom

She took down the confed flag in SC.

She will not be on their ticket.

[BannonsLiver]

47. The other problem she would face

And anyone not named Trump would face is a full on revolt from the deplorables who now make up the bulk of the GOP electorate. Yeah, they’re going to forget how dear leader was cast aside by the party glitterati and vote for the half Indian woman. M’kay.

[pnwmom]

48. No, they approve of her. Last time there was a poll (April)

she had approval numbers of 75 approval, 9 disapproval among Republicans.

https://www.axios.com/nikki-haley-most-popular-trump-administration-f3698066-76e3-462f-92cd-472e3c58ca7a.html?utm_source=sidebar

Haley's approval/disapproval: Republicans (75/9), Democrats (55/23), Independents (63/19).

[GulfCoast66]

50. But she would be running against another republican.

She would not stand a chance in the primary.

Women of color who took down the confed flag vs a white male. You do remember it is republicans we are talking about?

[pnwmom]

54. How did she win the Governorship in the very red state of South Carolina?

If she could do that, she could win a GOP primary, especially with the party looking for a "fresh face" after DT.

[at140]

53. Did Haley win twice in SC?

If so, there were not enough confederates in SC to outnumber those who did not see the need for confederate flags displayed at government offices. I bet many blacks in the whole country liked what
what she did in SC.

[pnwmom]

55. She was re-elected with a 56 to 41% win. n/t

[GulfCoast66]

92. She has not been in a primary since the flag came down.

It will hurt her with the Republican base more than many seem to think. And the base is who shows up in their primaries.

[mr_lebowski]

51. I'm firmly in the 'yeah, no ... that ain't happening' camp ...

But if it does, we'll have some warning, and I'm sure we'll have viable female candidates in the primaries.

If Trump is gone, and she starts looking to lead the GOP field (HUGE HUGE IF), that could become 'something to consider'.

Not gonna worry about it now.

[at140]

52. Congrats...most thought provoking and genuinely relevant post!

So I agree, Nikki Haley would be the republican's best option to keep White House.
But I have my doubts about her getting the nomination. Because republicans are not
that smart.

[Vogon_Glory]

56. I'm not that worried about Democratic chances in 2020. Trump has soiled the Republican brand

I’m not that worried about Republican chances in 2020 even if Donnie resigns, gets dumped, or flat-lines before Primary Season. I’m old enough to remember the 1976 elections and remember just how tainted the Republican brand still was after Watergate and the Nixon pardon.

Let’s do some deep-breathing and relax. Trump has been in office far longer into his term than Tricky Dick was into his second term when he resigned, and the ordure from Trump’s dealings is still flowing and getting into the news. Today’s Republican Party is in worse shape than it was back then. Father Pence is far more involved with this administration’s grubby dealings than Ford was in Nixon’s. The Republicans are far more racist than they were back then (Remember SenatorEdward Brooke?), and I doubt the MAGA Magoos would turn out enough to vote for someone of Haley’s complexion into the White House.

[pnwmom]

58. Red state voters re-elected her in 2014 with 56% of the vote.

And she had high approval ratings from both R's and D's as an Ambassador. We'd be foolish to underestimate her potential, in the midst of a Rethug party in disarray.

[Vogon_Glory]

59. Perhaps they did in South Carolina...

But does she have it outside the Palmetto State’s boundaries?

I suspect that she doesn’t, at least not beyond the innermost part of the right wing’s Shrinking bubble.

[pnwmom]

60. As an ambassador she had national approval ratings among Democrats

above 50%, and in the 70's among Republicans.

So the country is already predisposed to like her.

[eleny]

57. She carried water for the Trump Party

So I just don't believe that she'll sucker enough Dems to cross over. Not at this point with all that's being revealed.

She should never have accepted the U.N. post. Leaving the administration doesn't help her. Her best bet would have been to let the party implode from a safe distance. Now she's knee deep in the goo and that's too deep to make a successful presidential victory.

[tinrobot]

61. "They" still have to win some primaries.

It's not as easy as just picking a candidate.

[dawg day]

62. Ford was a pretty plausible candidate in 1976--

But Nixon had destroyed the GOP brand at least for one election.
And it took Ronald Reagan to win the White House again for them... and there is no Ronald Reagan in the GOP now.

Maybe this time, the ruination will stick.

[BannonsLiver]

67. The OP makes a good case for why Haley could be a long term problem

I have some disagreement on that but their case is a good one.

The problem though, in the present or near future, is the scenario put forth has trump exiting the stage in a vacuum. That wouldn’t be how it would go down. In reality it would be a very messy process with a lot of hurt feelings (and possibly violence) from the deplorables.

It doesn’t seem probable they would see Dear Leader ousted by people they view as party elites and their pivot would be to vote for Haley or anyone else. Many would stay home. There would also be a push for a Trumpian candidate to run as an Indy in 2020 which would also be a big problem for the GOP.

[IronLionZion]

63. She better not be the first woman or Indian-American president

and I doubt she has that much support within the GOP.

It should be Kamala Devi Harris from our side

[Quixote1818]

64. It's worth thinking about this. I have a feeling some women will start to do better soon

It's very early.

[AlexSFCA]

66. if trump doesnt run for reelection for whatever reason

Haley could definately pose danger to us. I don’t think she stands a chance against trump in gop primary.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

68. I'd like to think that Trump has tainted the party enough

that they'd have a difficulty winning in 2020 regardless of who runs. People will know- or be made aware- that Haley worked for Trump too. At any rate, I don't know that anybody running as a GOPer in 2020 would be able to escape the "Trump Taint", not to mention the fact that most GOPers have enabled and covered for Trump pretty consistently. A fractious 2020 primary challenge would be hard on the GOP in and of itself too. Trump may survive it, albeit wind up even more wounded than he is now. A successful primary bid by a challenger would likely be mortally wounded by the loss of Trump supporters angry over Trump being dumped. I have a hard time seeing how Trump/GOP wins re-election next year but not dismissing it as an impossibility just because.......

[Hulk]

69. The spineless, corrupt repuKKKes would DEFINITELY support her in order...

...to defeat “X Democrat”...man, woman, black, white, etc.

Don’t under estimate the gop. These wicked, conniving sons a bitches would DEFINITELY back her. In two years time, or even 6 months time, dRumpf is going to be rotten fish. The gop isn’t that stupid to back this corrupt jackass again...and he is losing, and has already lost most of his “luster”. The con artist was a useful tool to the gop. They are going to be done with their gullible, pompous fool.

[RainCaster]

70. IMO, the GOP is digging a hole so deep...

It may be decades before they recover.

[karynnj]

72. That was part of the Republican logic in 2008 --young women would vote McCain/Palin because of Palin

It did not happen. We are both women, and I assume that it is 100% certain that even if it were Palin/McCain, we would have both voted for Obama/Biden, without the least bit of concern that we would be voting against the first woman who could have been elected President.

Note that in 2016, it was an oft spoken Democratic idea that the white suburban women would abandon the Republican party for Clinton -- again, for the most part - even with the most offense Republican possible - they didn't.

Not to mention, with the way you say it - you are implying 2 uninteresting, lackluster white men. Yet, one of these boring white men would have had to have won the primary - over several potential women, at least one hispanic person and a few African Americans. Note the primary will be the more diverse voting block - because the Republicans bring down the amount of diversity. If NONE of the female, minority candixdates can win the primary, why do you assume that they would do better in the general election?

I do not have a favorite at this point and would welcome having a candidate who inspires me, but I will vote for whoever wins.

[mr_liberal]

74. I thought Republicans were sexist and racist though, so why would they vote for an Indian woman? nt

[erpowers]

76. The Republican Party Will Stop Her

I could be wrong, but we do not have to stop her. The Republican Party base will stop her. I do not think the base likes Nikki Haley as much as you think. How close as any woman come to gain the Republican Party nomination for President? You might bring up the fact that the Republican Party liked Sarah Palin, but my response would be that they only liked her because she was John McCain's backup. Once she tried to make it on her own Republicans were not very supportive of her bid for the Presidency. With Haley, not only is she a woman, but she is a Indian American woman. I just do not think the Republican Party base will support her nomination for the presidency. After Trump the party base is likely to go back to supporting white men.

[Tarc]

80. To most voters, Mike Pence will have the appearance of "a good person"

relative to the dumpster fire that is Donald Trump. Or Kasich, who is every bit the conservative wingnut that the rest of them are, but he gets kudos because he doesn't like Trump.

Honestly, I want him to stay in office and be a massive albatross around the neck of the 2020 elections for the GOP.

[still_one]

82. It will either be Kasich, Romney, or Pence.

[LiberalLovinLug]

83. I'm worried about ANYBODY other than Trump as their candidate

Because anyone else will look like a Rhodes scholar and saint. Man or woman, they could even say they agree with everything Trump tried to do...in spirit...and agree with everything the GOP is passing in the Senate....but they are NOT Trump. And they will be more diplomatic, repair relations with their allies, stop the more extreme policies like separating families, and simply just NOT tweeting childish insults every day. Further they accept the findings of the intelligence agencies, and EVEN THOUGH they accept Putin worked to get Trump elected, they will endorse sanctions against Russia because defending democracy is sooooooooo important to them. And from now on they will win by using their 'superior' positions. (Even though they'd still be using their own experienced cyber troll army who learned under the best).

Thats one of the frustrating things about Trumps win that McTurtle is chortling to himself about. The silver lining for him is that just when the nation was starting to veer left.....(gay marriage, pot legalization,....) when the first woman was all set to win the Presidency, and did win by 3 million votes, and the SCOTUS was also going to veer left, the nation instead was cursed with a baffoon RW President of their party that promoted the most extreme racist sexist messaging in history, while they quietly passed bills for their bank accounts and their donors. Trump pushed everything even further to the right, so that now, a Republican candidate who would have been handicapped with being compromised or extreme in the past, only has to show the mildest of competency and decency, and they're in, and they will give all those Republican and Independent voters a reason to vote Republican again. To not have to deny it in phone polls.

[Nitram]

85. Don't stress yourself out, pnwmom. Trump has destroyed the Republican Brand for at least one

election cycle. Give thanks Trump is a blabbermouth and Mueller is a workaholic. And didn't Haley resign under a cloud of suspicion?

[pnwmom]

98. No, Haley didn't resign under a cloud of suspicion.

She resigned to take the job of Ambassador to the U.N.

[Nitram]

113. I'm afraid you are mistaken. Haley resigned from her post as UN ambassador after

an ethics watchdog requested an investigation into her acceptance of free flights on private jets. It ws widely reported at the time.

[pnwmom]

114. Oh, okay -- I thought you were talking about her resignation as Governor.

So CREW had raised questions about her flying on private planes. I doubt that is something that will cause great problems for her, but we'll see.

[David__77]

86. Haley would likely do worse than Trump in my opinion.

I find the issue you note similar to concerns that Sarah Palin would take votes from Obama.

[redstateblues]

88. She would not challenge Trump in the primaries.

[Perrenial Voter]

89. I think their base is too racist and sexist to do that...n/t

[Stinky The Clown]

94. I share your concerns about a Haley candidacy

[LonePirate]

96. The deplorable Republican base loves 45 too much. They will not dump him.

The only ways 45 is not the 2020 Republican nominee:

1. He refuses to run again or resigns from office.
2. He dies.
3. He is in jail (not sure about this one).
4. He flees to Russia or Saudi Arabia to avoid prosecution.

[John Fante]

99. Nikki Haley is going to fire up the deplorables

to the point where they ditch Trump? Yeah, no.

[pnwmom]

101. No, but if they dump him because of other reasons -- like his being indicted

by the A.G. of New York for money laundering -- or if he agrees to resign in exchange for a pardon from Federal charges -- then she will rise to the top of her party.

[John Fante]

105. The deplorables would flip their racist tops and stay home en masse.

They would see it as the ultimate act of betrayal by the Republicans.

Trump himself is an underdog going into 2020, but if he's not on the ticket, forget it: the Democrats handily take the WH.

[lunatica]

102. The downside stuff of being careful what you ask for

Usually Democratic primaries for POTUS are a bruising mess. Add the fights from the purity brigade about never, ever saying anything negative about any woman, no matter how soulless she is and it would be a major bloodbath!

But if Trump is still President in 2020 Nikkie Halley would have to Primary him and that could be even worse for the Republican Party, and the Republicans would have to back her which would divide them badly. I can’t see Republicans going against Trumps base until the next election, when Trump can’t run anymore.

In other words I don’t see the Republicans winning the 2020 elections for President if they support someone the MAGAminions don’t want. I don’t think that bunch of misogynists would change their hatred or fear of women.

[Jim Lane]

107. Can she appeal to young women while remaining anti-choice?

Here's the section of her Wikipedia bio on abortion, referring to her time in the South Carolina state legislature:

Haley describes herself as pro-life and has supported legislation to restrict abortion.[14][46][47][48] She has stated "I'm not pro-life because the Republican Party tells me, I'm pro-life because all of us have had experiences of what it means to have one of these special little ones in our life."[48]

Haley has consistently supported bills that give rights to a fetus and restrict abortion, except when the mother's life is at risk. In 2006, as a member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, Haley voted for the Penalties for Harming an Unborn Child/Fetus law, which asserted that an act of violence against a fetus is akin to a criminal act against the mother. She also voted for two separate bills that required a woman to first look at an ultrasound and then wait 24 hours before being permitted to have an abortion.[49] In 2016, she re-signed a new state law that bans abortions at 20 weeks of pregnancy.[48]

Haley has voted in favor of some bills relating to abortion that were tabled or rejected, including the Inclusion of Unborn Child/Fetus in Definition for Civil Suits Amendment, Prohibiting Employment Termination Due to Abortion Waiting Period amendment, and Exempting Cases of Rape from Abortion Waiting Period amendment. The latter would have allowed specific cases of women to not have to wait the mandatory 24 hours before having an abortion.[50]

If she sticks with those views, she'll alienate those young women you worry she'll attract (although she'll still have other electoral strengths). If she tries to tack toward the center on reproductive rights, she'll exacerbate the problem other posters have noted, namely the hard-right nutjobs who vote in GOP primaries.

ETA: I've seen speculation about a modified version of your scenario -- Trump runs for re-election but dumps Pence, who brings nothing to the ticket (the evangelicals who adore him will vote Republican anyway). The new VP candidate would be someone who might attract some swing voters, and Haley could be at the top of that list.

[pnwmom]

110. She has a saccharine little spiel about how she's pro-life

because her husband is adopted and she loves him so much.

All she has to do is attract a couple percent of Democratic women and she could win.

[melman]

129. "All she has to do is attract a couple percent of Democratic women."

And how is she gong to do this? Why would they choose her over the Democratic nominee?

[pnwmom]

131. Plenty of Democratic women are centrists and moderates,

who might not be repelled by her (because she will pose as a centrist in any national election.)

And some might like the idea of casting a vote for the first woman President.

[Caliman73]

108. Possible but not likely.

The GOP is loathe to admit mistakes and change course. They did it with Nixon, but that was a pre-Fox GOP.

Haley could be a challenge, but you also have to figure in the GOP's own racism and sexism. While Haley did well in South Carolina, she was born there and spent her whole life there. There is a difference between that and national office. She does not seem to have raised a major profile. Escaping the Trump administration without major scandal is hardly an accomplishment.

Apart from that, Democrats would not just vote for a person because she is a woman. Haley is anti-choice in a major way. She wants to give person hood to the fetus. She has a slew of other horrible right wing stances on policy.

To say that she would sway anyone except the standard GOP voter is an exaggeration.

[ecstatic]

109. Why worry about it now? We don't even know who's running

Everyone just vote your heart (NOT head) in the primaries and hopefully the ticket will punch all categories.
Personally, I'd love to go all in with Kamala / Corey 2020 or Corey / Kamala 2020.

[Hotler]

115. "My fear is that if they dump Trump and nominate someone else in 2020"

it will be Kim Kardashain.

[Devil Child]

116. Our nominee will emerge victorious in 2020

No matter their demographics as long as we GOTV and fight all voter disenfranchisement attempts by the GOP. That to me is the most important aspect of the election. My fear is that GOP will use corruption to suppress the vote rather than a female candidate somehow drawing Democratic voters away.

[pwb]

117. Any puke will be beaten. Haley is a quitter.

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

119. Plus One

Trump has destroyed the Republican brand.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

118. How are they going to dump Trump?

Presuming he doesn't resign , is impeached, or declines to run for re-election she will have to beat him in the primaries. That isn't happening.


Also, it's more likely than not our ticket will be gender balanced. Booker-Klobuchar or Kamala- Beto- or Beto-Kamala is intriguing.

[pnwmom]

120. I think he could be impeached, or could be persuaded

that it would be in his interest to resign.

And I think this because I think there will be a mountain of evidence of criminal activity.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

121. If they impeach him there will definitely be a...

If they impeach him there will definitely be a not unsubstantial amount of Trump supporters who will not vote for the Republican nominee. And in any case our ticket will be racially and gender balanced.

Also, any Republican is going to be running in the midst of a secular bear market and an economic slowdown that most Americans will believe they caused. 2020 will look like 2008, 1992. or maybe 1932.

[pnwmom]

122. I have seen many DUers

push for a Beto/Biden or Biden/Beto ticket, which wouldn't be racially or gender balanced.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

124. They can push for whatever they want. Let not your heart be troubled. That ain't happening

There is going to be a man and a woman on the ticket and one person of color and a white person on it.

[pnwmom]

126. I hope you're right! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

128. I know I am.

For two reasons. Reason one is it makes sense from an electoral perspective and reason two is we have plenty of qualified women and people of color to choose from.

[TheFarseer]

127. I really don't think that will happen

Republican voters will not vote for a woman and a “furener”. All these firsts that you think are a bonus in a candidate are strikes against for GOP voters.

[Ciaphas Cain]

132. This.

The Republicans will gleefully ignore women of color even when they know for sure that they're winners.

Republican women are just props that get wheeled out during elections

[OrlandoDem2]

130. It would lead to a civil war within the party. They would be divided beyond imagination.

You raise good points but it’s to good to be true for them and you have to consider how that would impact the true Deplorables who worship him if he were dumped.

[roamer65]

133. We are going into recession sometime next year.

The Trump Slump is going to be the nail in their coffin.

[BadGimp]

135. She would still have to run as a Republican...

[kentuck]

136. The Republican Party cannot rid itself of Trump that easily...

They have been far too complicit.

[dansolo]

137. What a load of crap

The whole gist of this post us that we must support a woman for president because the GOP will nominate Nikki Haley, and somehow magically she will appeal to Democratic women. This was the same logic behind them picking Sarah Palin. They put her on for the sole purpose to appeal to the Hillary Clinton supporters who were mad that Barack Obama won the nomination over her. It didn't work. Do you really have such a low opinion of Democratic women that you believe they will vote for a Republican woman for president, no matter how conservative her views are, just because she is a woman?

[melman]

138. + 1