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Fri Dec 28, 2018, 10:41 AM

 

The stock market is a poor predictor of Presidential election winners

The Dow ranks 32 out of 43 leading economic indicators in election outcome influence.
Manufacturing, Change in the jobless rate and the GDP are far more important, and GDP is expected to sink in 2019 and 2020.

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/which-economic-indicators-best-predict-presidential-elections/

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Reply The stock market is a poor predictor of Presidential election winners (Original post)
Yosemito Dec 2018 OP
mahatmakanejeeves Dec 2018 #1

Response to Yosemito (Original post)

Fri Dec 28, 2018, 11:03 AM

1. October 2016: Will Redskins Rule predict presidential election winner again?

Will Redskins Rule predict presidential election winner again?

By: fox5dc.com staff

POSTED: OCT 14 2016 07:57 PM EDT

UPDATED: OCT 14 2016 08:52 PM EDT

WASHINGTON - With the presidential election only a few weeks away, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are likely looking for any edge before voters hit the polls on Nov. 8. But as history has shown, the candidates should pay extra attention on how the Washington Redskins perform in their next game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The so-called Redskins Rule has successfully predicted the result in 17 of the last 19 presidential elections since the Redskins moved to Washington D.C. back in 1937.

So how does the rule work? If the Redskins win their final home game prior to the election, the party of the incumbent president would retain the presidency. But if the Redskins lose, the candidate for the opposing party would become president.

If the rule holds true, Clinton is surely hoping for a Redskins win while Trump should be rooting for the Eagles.
....

The rule broke down in 2016:

Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is a spurious relationship in which the results of National Football League (NFL) games correlated strongly with the results of subsequent United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there was a high correlation between the outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game prior to the U.S. presidential election and the outcome of the election: when the Redskins won, the party of the incumbent president retained the presidency; when the Redskins lost, the opposition party won. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators, used as a bellwether to predict the results of elections, and held true in every election from 1940 through 2000. A variant of the Redskins Rule was contrived to maintain the correlation through the 2008 election (under the original formulation, it would have failed in 2004), after which it failed completely in the 2012 election, and later, the 2016 election.

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