Texas Republicans are worried about trump losing Texas in 2020

[Gothmog]

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[bearsfootball516]

1. I don't think it turns blue in 2020, but it's on its way with demographic changes.

I think it could be a legit battleground state in 2024 or 2028.

[NewJeffCT]

3. if we can get a candidate that will turn out the Hispanic vote

At least at the VP level, I think Democrats have a shot at Texas - or at least making Republicans work hard to win.

Julian Castro
Beto O'Rourke
Xavier Becerra
Eric Garcetti

Because of voter suppression and other issues, Hispanic turnout is usually not great (when Dems thought Clinton had a shot in AZ in 2016, Jan Brewer mocked their chances because she said that Hispanic voters don't turn out...)

[Takket]

2. Texas keeps getting more and more blue

This is why they don’t want immigrants to be citizens. They are afraid Latinos will turn Texas blue forever. If the right loses Texas they will never win another election for president.

[Dem_4_Life]

4. Trump is hated more in TX than Cruz and look how close Beto got

This is going to be interesting.

[honest.abe]

5. If we take Texas that means we can lose FL, OH, PA, MI, WI, MN, IA and still win.

Thats why they are worried.

[Wounded Bear]

7. Texas would be a huge get for Dems...

but I don't think we lose all of those states. I sense some real Trump fatigue growing in the midwest. I don't see it getting much better either.

[honest.abe]

10. Yes, its shaping up to be a wipeout..

but this time we cannot take anything for granted.

[Wounded Bear]

13. Agreed, take nothing for granted...

I want Wave 2.0. Another dozen or so House seats and at least 4-6 Senate seats. All in addition to a 350-400 vote pres win.

I'm greedy like that.

[NewJeffCT]

12. I think you're right

I can see MI, PA and WI all swinging back to a Democrat. Not sure about Iowa and Ohio?

But, no time to let up - I'm hoping for a crushing victory as a total rebuke of Trump.

[Wounded Bear]

14. It was looking a couple of months ago like Ohio would be harder this cycle...

Would hate to see it, but Ohio is looking more like Indiana now.

[Ace Rothstein]

16. I think Iowa is winnable.

Ohio is probably a lost cause at this point. It was over a 600k vote swing from 2012 to 2016 and Clinton lost by almost a half million votes there.

[Garrett78]

20. Ohio was closer than Iowa.

I don't think Ohio will become a lost cause before Steve King's Iowa does.

[Garrett78]

8. If we win Texas, we'll win almost all of those other states you listed.

We could win Texas and lose Ohio or Iowa. But if we win Texas, we'll win Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and those Upper Midwest battleground states that were blue for 6-7 straight presidential elections prior to 2016.

Winning Texas means nationwide Democratic turnout is off the charts. It'll mean 400 electoral votes is within reach. I'd be thrilled with 350. I think turning Texas blue is still a couple cycles away.

[honest.abe]

9. Probably however...

I can imagine a scenario, with Beto or Julian Castro as the VP paired with Kamala Harris, where we might win Texas but lose some of those other states I listed.

[Garrett78]

17. Ohio and Iowa maybe.

I'm confident we'll win MI, WI and PA with or without TX. I'm less confident about Florida but I can't imagine losing Florida (or Arizona) if we win Texas, regardless of who is on the ticket.

Turnout between those states isn't going to vary drastically, no matter who the VP nominee is.

[honest.abe]

18. Yes, that sounds about right.

My overall point was how big an impact Texas is.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

6. It would be the first time since 1980

Jimmy Carter.

[Cha]

11. Kick just for the thought of that brilliant loss!

[Gothmog]

15. Look at the number of Texas house seats being targeted

Link to tweet

[Garrett78]

19. Texas, Arizona and Georgia are the next generation battleground states.

Meanwhile, Ohio and Iowa may be going the way of Missouri, a former bellwether. Time will tell.

Hopefully Florida and North Carolina will move in our direction the way Virginia, Colorado and Nevada have.

[Gothmog]

21. Sri is a good guy

Link to tweet

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[Gothmog]

22. White suburbia is the source of Trump's Texas troubles

I live in a suburb of Houston. We voted for Clinton in 2016 but lost all of the local races. In 2016, the county went for Beto and won the county wide state races where we had a candidate. The big cities have been blue for a while and now the suburbs are turning blue. This is not good for trump https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/white-suburbia-the-source-of-trumps-texas-troubles

In 2018 the Republican incumbents who for several years had easily defended these House seats fell to Democratic challengers in the midterm elections. The president’s particularly low job approval ratings among women fueled the Democratic Party's victories there, and Republicans worry that this situation could foreshadow what's to come next year.

“It’s the suburbs,” Robin Armstrong, who represents Texas on the Republican National Committee, acknowledged in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “That’s basically the woman’s vote. We need to make sure that we’re engaging females and letting them know that we’re addressing their values and concerns.”

In 2018, Hispanic turnout in Texas rose by about 73 percent from 2014, according to a post-election review issued by Latino Victory Fund. But, as revealed by figures compiled by the Texas secretary of state, voter turnout overall increase a bit more, by about 77 percent. That would suggest the growing strength of Democrats in the state is not due to the rising Hispanic population.

Texas could be in play in 2020

[jpljr77]

23. Don't get excited, this is not the message they are trying to convey. They just want money.

The Texas GOP is looking for that sweet, sweet Trump campaign money, nothing more.