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Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:38 AM

So who outed Northam: positional analysis

Facts:

Getting rid of Northam removes a powerful incumbent Democrat.

VA lt. Governor is still a strong replacement. Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days. Potentially racist vote can still be exploited though.

Corey Stewart (an alt right adjacent figure) did not have this info to release.

Was released after a damaging series of abortion politics clips. Seems strategically timed. Info may have been in hand for a while.

Analysis:

Seems likely this was released by a center right Republican who wanted far right Corey Stewart to lose but wanted to increase the chances of a centrist Republican recapturing the seat in the future. At worst this move represents status quo for the center right in VA. At best they may now have ad edge. It was an excellent strategic move.

However the best Democratic countermove is still (imo) to broom Northam. Itís a defensive move with significant downside risk but the alternative is almost all downside.

To the strategist who executed this: well played.

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Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Reply So who outed Northam: positional analysis (Original post)
Loki Liesmith Feb 2019 OP
Tarc Feb 2019 #1
Loki Liesmith Feb 2019 #2
Tarc Feb 2019 #4
Loki Liesmith Feb 2019 #7
Squinch Feb 2019 #3
Loki Liesmith Feb 2019 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2019 #8
Loki Liesmith Feb 2019 #10
WhiskeyGrinder Feb 2019 #6
Loki Liesmith Feb 2019 #9

Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:40 AM

1. Who released it is irrelevant; if the governor didn't have a racist yearbook page

Then there would be nothing to "out".

This mess is entirely on him.

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Response to Tarc (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:42 AM

2. I have no idea why you replied

Iím not interested in blame. Iím interested in assessing motive and executing the best countermove.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:44 AM

4. I have no idea why you posted it

There is only one counter-move; resignation.

This isn't a debate.

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Response to Tarc (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:54 AM

7. Talking about the future

Of course the best current move is for Northam to resign. If you had read the post you would have seen I said as much. But there are future moves to assess. Watch who gets nominated on the R side for governor.

Unless you have something more interesting to add to the conversation...cheers and good day.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:43 AM

3. Right. Its three dimensional chess and has nothing to do with OUT AND OUT STONE HORRIFYING RACISM!!

I cannot believe this shit happening all over DU.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #3)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:50 AM

5. Of course it's racism.

But itís stil a game. Everything is.
Itís just one with frighteningly high stakes.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:55 AM

8. VA is trending hard blue.

There are several Democrats including the lieutenant governor, and the two Democratic senators who are former governors who could hold that seat.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:57 AM

10. Yeah that's the hope

The other side may not see this or isnít so sure imo

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:52 AM

6. "Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days."

We live in a racist country. Race is always a factor.

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Response to WhiskeyGrinder (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:56 AM

9. But how much?

Enough that Fairfax will lose? He isnít Wilder and VA has changed a lot.

Thatís my hope anyway.

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