So who outed Northam: positional analysis

[Loki Liesmith]

Facts:

Getting rid of Northam removes a powerful incumbent Democrat.

VA lt. Governor is still a strong replacement. Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days. Potentially racist vote can still be exploited though.

Corey Stewart (an alt right adjacent figure) did not have this info to release.

Was released after a damaging series of abortion politics clips. Seems strategically timed. Info may have been in hand for a while.

Analysis:

Seems likely this was released by a center right Republican who wanted far right Corey Stewart to lose but wanted to increase the chances of a centrist Republican recapturing the seat in the future. At worst this move represents status quo for the center right in VA. At best they may now have ad edge. It was an excellent strategic move.

However the best Democratic countermove is still (imo) to broom Northam. It’s a defensive move with significant downside risk but the alternative is almost all downside.

To the strategist who executed this: well played.

[Tarc]

1. Who released it is irrelevant; if the governor didn't have a racist yearbook page

Then there would be nothing to "out".

This mess is entirely on him.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. I have no idea why you replied

I’m not interested in blame. I’m interested in assessing motive and executing the best countermove.

[Tarc]

4. I have no idea why you posted it

There is only one counter-move; resignation.

This isn't a debate.

[Loki Liesmith]

7. Talking about the future

Of course the best current move is for Northam to resign. If you had read the post you would have seen I said as much. But there are future moves to assess. Watch who gets nominated on the R side for governor.

Unless you have something more interesting to add to the conversation...cheers and good day.

[Squinch]

3. Right. Its three dimensional chess and has nothing to do with OUT AND OUT STONE HORRIFYING RACISM!!

I cannot believe this shit happening all over DU.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Of course it's racism.

But it’s stil a game. Everything is.
It’s just one with frighteningly high stakes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. VA is trending hard blue.

There are several Democrats including the lieutenant governor, and the two Democratic senators who are former governors who could hold that seat.

[Loki Liesmith]

10. Yeah that's the hope

The other side may not see this or isn’t so sure imo

[WhiskeyGrinder]

6. "Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days."

We live in a racist country. Race is always a factor.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. But how much?

Enough that Fairfax will lose? He isn’t Wilder and VA has changed a lot.

That’s my hope anyway.