Iowa poll (Emerson): Biden beats Trump, and no other Democrat does

[Yosemito]

A new Emerson poll shows that Joe Biden had a 2% lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, where Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 9.5%.

As far as the Democratic primary, Biden is in first followed by Kamala Harris in second and Sanders in third:

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https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today-unpublished/iowa-poll-one-year-out-caucus-biden-leads-democratic-field-third-party-candidacy-helps-trump#.XFaQqqROmEc

[JI7]

1. the problem in Iowa is too many young people who tend to be liberal leave the state

[BluegrassDem]

6. Yep, too many old citizens and not much diversity

This state is trending away from us. It'll probably become another Missouri in the next couple of cycles. The future is in the southwest and southeast.

[karynnj]

16. Vermont and Maine have even older populations for the same reason, but

Vermont is dark blue and Maine at least purple. I think a factor that made the rust belt and states like Iowa vulnerable is that their economic outlook for their future and that of their families has deteriorated _ under Bush and Obama and they may not yet completely see they were sold a bill of goods by Trump.

[ehrnst]

18. However, any state that is the first in the primary needs to have

a less expensive media market than the major areas of population.

That allows all the candidates, not just the ones who have raised a huge amount of money, to make the case early on.

[DarthDem]

2. Those Are Good Numbers

For Iowa, this far out.

[SergeStorms]

3. These polls mean absolutely nothing...

at this stage of the game. Biden hasn't even announced yet (if), and people know little or nothing about the other candidates who have thrown their hat into the ring. There's just not enough information available, and there are so many variables that can change between now and November 2020.

Why they even bother wasting money on polls like this escapes me.

[pnwmom]

4. Obama's VP is still basking in his reflected glory. It's too early to know

how things will shake out in the next 22 months.

[aeromanKC]

5. Go Joe!!

Still love the Biden/Harris ticket!!

[bitterross]

7. Iowa's record is not good. They are not predictive of the nominee/winner

The Iowa caucuses are not very good at predicting the eventual nominee, much less winner.

The only person they got right in the last 30 years was W. Bush. That's hardly a reason to give shit about what people in Iowa think.

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire

[Yosemito]

12. Wrong

Jimmy Carter, Obama and Hillary won the Iowa caucuses and became the nominee

[emulatorloo]

13. +1, thanks for providing the facts

[karynnj]

17. And Kerry

[marmar]

8. Iowa.

[progressoid]

9. This assumes Trump will be the nominee.

Imagine for a moment that the GOP nominates someone else (for whatever reason). Someone who is actually competent and well liked. How will our candidates do against that person.

Hillary lost to arguably the worst candidate in a couple generations. Let's hope we've learned some lessons along the way.

[still_one]

10. The one implication this poll seems to indicate is that Joe Biden would be least impacted by so many

candidates and potential candidates in the Democratic nomination if he decides to run at this time

As for the prospective Democratic candidates against Trump, it indicates that the top Democratic candidates are too close to call. They are all within the MOE

[Jarqui]

11. The numbers of many of the other Dem candidates are likely to improve

as people in Iowa get to know them.

I don't place much importance in them at this juncture (& maybe never will)

Iowa caucus is a year from now

[Bettie]

14. Right now, there is little name

recognition for anyone but Biden and Sanders.

Most people aren't particularly politically aware and won't be paying attention until late Summer/early Fall.

[triron]

15. Why on earth do so many Iowans support an agent of Russia is beyond me.

They are so damn ignorant.