So...what happens NOW with the Republiban and the Mo. Senate race?

[Ken Burch]

Akin didn't get out and the withdrawal deadline passed. It's not like they can just give up on trying to win that seat(doing so essentially means they give up on taking over the Senate).

Are they going to put in some sort of highly-funded "Independent Republican" write-in candidate(can you actually do things like that under Missouri election law?)?

Will they end up campaigning for Akin in spite of their disavowals of him?

And what the hell will they do if the guy actually gets elected? It's gonna look all kinds of ugly among the independents if they just let him into the Senate GOP Caucus as if nothing had happened?

Whaddya think, folks?

[jberryhill]

1. Any other candidate splits the R vote, and McCaskill wins

[LynneSin]

4. Not necessarily especially if Akin has no support whatsoever from major GOP groups

Missouri GOP primary was a 3 party race and Akin didn't even get a full 40% out of the vote. If Brunner or Steelman opted to go 3rd party, conservative voters in Missouri may abandon Akin in order ensure McCaskill doesn't get the win. Since the RNC/RNSC have both said they are pulling funds out of the Missouri Senate race, Akin isn't going to get the exposure needed to win this race. I know that the Dem Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) has backed independant candidates before when they knew there was no Dem that could win (ie - Vermont and Bernie Sanders). I could see the GOP doing the same thing in order to salvage this race. My worry is that they'll go with Steelman, who was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Sarah Steelman might be a good counter race to fight back against the damange done by Todd 'Legitimate Rape' Akin plus Steelman has strong Tea Party ties and conservative record.

I know here in Delaware there was worry that Mike Castle was going to go 3rd party after he lost to Christine O'Donnell. Honestly, I think Castle may have won because let's face it, Chris Coons wasn't really a top tier democratic choice to run for senate but no other democrats wanted to go up against what they assumed was Mike Castle as the republican GOP candidate. He really lucked out with O'Donnell winning and I'm glad because Coons has been a great US Senator. But I think if Castle got into that race, it would have been tough for Coons to win that one even with O'Donnell running too.

[Panasonic]

5. Except for something - MO has a Sore Loser law

so Steelman and Brunner are DQ'ed.. so they have to find someone like Asscroft or Bond or No-Talent to take a hit.

[LynneSin]

6. I did not know that - thank you for sharing!

[jberryhill]

8. Correct - any available candidate siphons off votes from Akin

[LynneSin]

2. Sarah Palin is trying to get her candidate to run as an independent

Sarah endorsed the woman who came in 3rd place.

My guess is that if a 3rd Party candidate would enter the race who has conservative credentials, the RNSC may end up supporting that candidate over Akin provided that said 3rd party candidate agrees to align with the GOP senate if they are elected.

That's what the democrats did with Bernie Sanders. They felt there was no strong democrat in Vermont that could beat Sanders and they didn't want to split the progressive votes in Vermont that would allow a Republican to win so they just endorsed Sanders. He even appeared on the Dem Senators (DSCC) campaign page even though he was listed as an Independent. I think a democrat may have run in Vermont, just never received the DSCC never backed the candidate nor supplied campaign money. I think the DSCC is also doing the same in Maine since Agnus King is a progressive but running as an Independent and polling stronger than both the Republican and Democrat senate candidates.

So it is feasible that the Republicans could slate one of the 2 other Republicans that ran against Akin as an Independent and then send funds thru them. Sure it could split the conservative vote and ensure McCaskill's win but if the Independent polls strong conservatives may back the Independent to ensure a GOP 'win'.

[Ken Burch]

7. Someone needs to teach Caribou Barbie about the Missouri "sore loser law".

Some of us Alaskans find the idea of that law a bit incomprehensible...including our current senior U.S. Senator, Lisa Murkowski, who would now be out of office if we'd had that law here in 2010.

[kctim]

3. Doesn't matter what they do now

Claire was guaranteed to lose because of the ACA, now she is guaranteed to win because of this.