Trump's most recent approval rating rise doesn't alarm me
"WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval rating has risen to 44% after the conclusion of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history...
...The latest readings are from a Feb. 1-10 Gallup poll. The poll began less than a week after Trump signed legislation to end the 35-day shutdown and open the government for three weeks so lawmakers could negotiate funding for a border wall.
Trump's overall approval rating, which had slumped to 37% amid the shutdown, hasn't been this high since October, after his nominee Brett Kavanaugh was sworn in as a Supreme Court justice. His current approval is just one percentage point shy of his personal best, achieved twice in his presidency -- in the first week of his term and in June 2018, after his meeting with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un.
Trump's job approval rating was up significantly throughout the survey field period, including in the days before and after his Feb. 5 State of the Union address. Accordingly, it is more likely that his decision to end the shutdown was the primary factor in his improved rating."
https://news.gallup.com/poll/246662/trump-approval-economic-confidence-rebound.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=NEWSFEED&g_campaign=item_&g_content=Trump%2520Approval%2c%2520Economic%2520Confidence%2520Rebound
What does alarm me is that more than 10% of Americans approve of Trump, regardless of whether his numbers are going up or down this week. Once I swallow that bitter pill, this current bump up in his approval numbers means little IMO. While the government was closed, the escalating pain and chaos made it hard even for some of those inclined to favor Trump to stand with him. The news every day got worse, with no bottom in sight. That led many to back away from associating with Trump. Now identifying with Trump no longer carries the stigma of paralyzing air travel for example, or ignoring government workers in fear of losing their homes. Now they can be anti-immigrant again without the price tag.
Gallup's Kavanaugh comparison above is telling. His hearing was the last time the Right felt itself under a whole scale daily media pounding. The instinct to rally and counterattack is strong. It's been Democrats who have dominated the narrative in recent months, for the most part sine the midterms. It's all been about Nancy Pelosi and newly elected Democrats. Hardly anyone is even aware of any newly elected Republicans. A backlash was inevitable. Perhaps, lame and hollow as it was, Trump's State of the Union address sounded like a trumpet call to some.
Throughout his entire presidency Trump's reign has been identified with harsh noise, chaos and confusion. It's been a constant din, and it is worth restating that Trump's approval numbers have never been close to positive. They aren't now either. But more noise has been emerging on the Democratic side in recent weeks, with Democratic House Chairs signalling this or that soon to commence aggressive action, with a slew of Democratic presidential candidates competing for the spotlight, and with new political ideas and agendas popping up in the public sphere. It's a constant swirl with clear definition yet lacking, and it's a natural window for the Republican counter attack.
Mueller's probe has settled into a constant backdrop. New details keep emerging about the same cast of characters who are already actively embroiled in it, but big new shoes have yet to drop. Most Americans simply aren't tuned into the same tantalizing hints and indications that Rachel Maddow can spend most of an hour talking about. We occupy a transition window of time. Mueller has not yet revealed his cards. Public House hearings have not yet begun in earnest. Democratic presidential debates have not yet filled the airwaves. As surely as Trump's approval numbers have just risen, they are certain to fall again.
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