This poll is bad news for everyone but Kamala

[Yosemito]

She's tied with Biden in California in a new poll, with Sanders trailing them by 6%.
California votes earlier now and has a gazillion delegates.

Link to tweet

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

1. Considering that she's from California

How is it a good thing to be tied with Biden?

[Yosemito]

4. Considering she's from a hugely important state

The fact that she's tied with a former vice-president is huge.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

5. My point is I'd expect her to be doing better in her own state

Things generally work out that way.

[guillaumeb]

13. Being more familiar to California voters,

Harris might have more detractors there.

[cstanleytech]

36. Agreed its a home state advantage issue for her in California however that aside everyone on that

list would be a damn sight better than the jackass currently in the oval office.

[Yosemito]

43. Except for Hillary in Illinois

She won Illinois by 2% against a Vermont opponent.
She did better in many other states.

[madville]

14. That basically means they could potentially split the delegates

Bad news for her as far as a primary outcome.

[pnwmom]

6. Considering that Biden's basking in Obama's reflected glory,

how is 26% such a great thing for him anywhere?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

8. Deflection

For what it's worth Biden and Kamala are the two I'm leaning towards. I just think one could do better in their own state but then it's early in the game.

[pnwmom]

15. They have very different records; Biden's is more moderate, with several votes

for bills that have hurt people struggling under student loan debt. And millions of women my age haven't forgotten how he failed Anita Hill in his eagerness to get along with all the R's on the committee.

Of course if he's the nominee I'll support him. But I like Kamala more, and Klobuchar, Warren, Inslee (my governor), and Brown.

[Demsrule86]

35. I like Biden. I want someone who can win a general.

I think he can.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. Me 2. And how long ago was Anita Hill hearing?

[Autumn]

39. I'll never get over that. Joe Biden is the one who can take on Trump and win.

is just the one with the trust, knowledge and connections to fix the mess Trumps has put us in with on the world stage and heal the rifts Trump created with our allies.

[pnwmom]

52. He evidenced in those hearings a trait that continues to this day.

It's very important to him to be liked, and to be viewed as a person who can get along well with the R's.

He failed Anita -- didn't call her 3 corroborating witnesses -- because he said he had "promised" the R's he'd finish up by a certain day. He couldn't take even one more day because his promise to them was more important than justice for Anita.

[Brawndo]

49. Nice shout out to Inslee, from a fellow Washingtonian

I'm rooting for Kamala too.

[Bradshaw3]

20. Wow, Harris supporters sure seem to feel free to take (unwarrented) shots at other Dems

You really want to say Biden's only accomplishment was "basking in Obama's glory" and taking wrong votes? Eight years as a Vice-President who was included in major decisions, 36 years as a U.S. Senator with many accomplishments such as the Violence Against Women Act and gun control legislation. How does Harris' overall experience or legislative record stand up compared to Biden? Or her positions as AG and DA which have been criticized by liberals?

Putting down other candidates the way you did with snarky sniping doesn't promote your candidate. Unless your plan is to have another 2016 primary fight on here in 2019 and 2020.

[pnwmom]

27. Biden has done his good old boy thing from the very beginning, and for me

it doesn't work -- especially since the first time I saw it in action was at the Anita Hill hearings, which were very painful to watch -- in no small part because of decisions Biden, the Chairman of the Committee, made.

But no, at this point I'm not a Harris supporter. She is one of several candidates I like a lot. Biden isn't among my favorites though of course I'll support him if he's the nominee. Same goes for Bernie.

There WILL be a primary fight. How can that be avoided? This won't be like the R's, who have their candidate all picked out. And we're all free here to explain why we do or don't support the candidates.

[Garrett78]

32. There are reasons why Biden has come up way short in his previous attempts (plural) to get nominated

As I wrote earlier today, if Obama hadn't resurrected Biden's career, it would be considered absurd that Biden is somehow among the favorites. This is someone who got just 4% in Iowa in 2008 before dropping out. Someone who didn't even make it to the Iowa Caucus in his first attempt due to dropping out after facing multiple allegations of wrongdoing. Someone who is prone to gaffes, has his history with regard to the Thomas-Hill hearing, will be 78 in 2 years, etc., etc.

I suspect that if he runs, people will be reminded why his previous attempts have fallen way short. But he'll certainly make things tougher for others in Iowa and New Hampshire.

If Biden were to not do well in either of the first two contests, he'll be in trouble. Sanders doesn't have a path to victory, but he could take votes from Biden in New Hampshire. So could Warren. And there are candidates who could hurt Biden's chances in Iowa, as well. On the other hand, Biden could make the road very difficult for Klobuchar, Brown, Warren, etc.

Those who are less likely (due largely to demographics) to do well in NV, SC and the Super Tuesday states had better do really well in IA and NH, or else they're going to have a tough time getting nominated.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. Time and a season!!! At this moment he's the one

I think we are underestimating what people want. They want someone to bring us back to ground zero. Like someone we can trust to watch over our hangovers. They don't want change yet, they want equilibrium.

[NewJeffCT]

44. Both Biden and Sanders will get bumps

when they officially announce they're running.

[LongtimeAZDem]

16. Exactly; that's better news for Biden than for her

[Renew Deal]

41. And she's tied with someone that's not running

[honest.abe]

50. Despite being from California I suspect Biden's name is more well known that Kamala's.

Many voters dont know who their current Senators are much less their Attorney General from a two years ago.

[Codeine]

2. And without Biden running

she’s going to pick up the vast majority of his California backers as well. Go Kamala!!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. Very interesting, but it IS still quite early.

Things can, and often do, change.

[uponit7771]

7. On other mixed aisle sites MAGA KKKultist are going hard with lies about Harris ... they're over

... the top.

[madville]

9. California awards primary delegates proportionally by Congressional District

So Biden could easily get a significant portion of California delegates even if Harris were to win her home state's popular vote. I believe a candidate has to get at least 15% to be awarded a portion of the delegates.

[Doreen]

10. Biden has not said YET that he is running.

I hope he does but at this moment he is not a threat to Kamala.

[a kennedy]

11. Come on.....there's like what 21months until the electioni of November of 2019.

[Blue_true]

23. The primary starts is just about 12-13 months. nt

[regnaD kciN]

25. A year to go...

Oh, boy, if we haven’t selected our nominee by now, we’re in yuuuuuuge trouble!

[Garrett78]

31. A year from now, both the IA Caucus and NH Primary will be complete.

And we'll be about a week away from the Nevada Caucus.

And the first debate is only a few months away.

Of course, the polls at this point are still meaningless.

[Blue_true]

56. When is the first debate scheduled? nt

[crazytown]

12. How about 'This poll is good news for Democrats'

One of our candidates is gaining traction with a good campaign.

[MyNameGoesHere]

17. That's pretty good

From California and she is tied with someone who hasn't announced to run yet....

I could think of a better way to spin it I think.

[brooklynite]

18. A poll 15 months before the Convention isn't bad news for anybody...

54% is for candidates who many not get in.

[Duppers]

19. I'm good with that. 😊 nt

[jcgoldie]

21. I do not agree with your assessment

[madville]

22. Hypothetically it's good for Biden

Since California proportions primary delegates, he could take a significant chunk of her home state.

[Blue_true]

24. My guess is if Biden wins the primary, Harris will likely be his #2. nt

[RandySF]

26. It's not winner-take-all

But Warren as a lot of work ahead of her.

[Garrett78]

40. New Hampshire is a must-win for Warren and others.

There are candidates (Harris, Booker, O'Rourke, Castro) who can fail to win either IA or NH but still have a path to victory. And then there are those (Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Brown, etc.) who absolutely *must* perform very well in at least one of the first two contests. The more such candidates that join the race, the tougher the road will be for each of them.

There are also those (potential) candidates who simply don't have a path to victory, most notably Sanders. Some, of course, won't even make it to the Iowa Caucus. I doubt Delaney, for instance, will have the funds to make it that far.

[empedocles]

28. Rachel reporting now Dem moves to avoid a 'con 2016 circus likeness

[standingtall]

29. Is Sherrod Brown in this poll?

I think his message would sell pretty well with west coast Democrats. He would be a better option than Biden or Bernie. This is an early poll, but the fact this poll has her tied with Biden and Bernie at 20% in her own state is not good news.

[Yosemito]

45. I can't tell

They don't even have a pdf.

[Garrett78]

30. It's all name recognition at this point. These polls might start meaning something...

...after this year's 6 debates, leading up to the Iowa Caucus.

I'll say again that it's absurd to lead with 2 states that don't remotely reflect our electorate. That's a tradition that needs to die.

Anyway, if Harris exceeds expectations in Iowa or New Hampshire, she'll be set up well for NV, SC and Super Tuesday. If she were to win one or both of those first two contests, she would likely be on her way to the nomination.

Winning both IA and NH wouldn't guarantee the winner the nomination, but it would give that person a big boost, depending - in part - on who that individual is (Sanders, for instance, still wouldn't have a path to victory). And it would also depend on who else does well in those states. A close 2nd for an underdog could be huge, as it was in 1992 (Clinton got crushed in IA but came in 2nd in NH and then won the nomination with ease).

Biden winning both IA and NH would obviously be very significant. Endorsements and donations would start piling up. But another candidate could win NV or SC, do well on Super Tuesday and make a race out of it.

"Pre-Obama Biden the candidate" has never had as much success as "post-Obama Biden the potential candidate," so time will tell if Biden (gaffe-prone, Thomas-Hill hearing, 78 in 2020, etc.) has as much success as some seem to think he will. In 2008, he dropped out after getting just 4% in Iowa. His previous attempt ended even earlier following several accusations.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. Higher for each of the top 3 than I would have expected

I would have guessed low 20s for Biden and Harris, with mid teens for Sanders.

Harris is not a dominant long term national figure who will command a huge slice of the early projections, no matter where she is from. When I was traveling in October and November and told people she was the likely front runner, people were stunned and didn't know her name. This even occurred at the JFK Museum in Hyannis. The volunteers in that museum had never heard of her and were Googling her name as I spelled it out for them.

I guarantee her name recognition in California is not as high as we would imagine.

[BigmanPigman]

34. I suggested a Biden/Harris ticket last Summer to the 3 generations

of Dems in my family and they all liked it. I mentioned it again at a family dinner last Sunday (they had all forgotten my previous idea) and once again they all liked it. I guess I will have to remind them again in 6 months since they seem to be getting forgetful.

[TeamPooka]

48. I suggest Harris/Biden. Joe is a great VP and should be the VP for every Democratic POTUS

as long as he lives.

[BigmanPigman]

51. I like that combination too!!!!!

[Jeffersons Ghost]

42. K&R

[theboss]

46. This breaking down quickly into Harris v Biden would be fantastic

That's a genuinely interesting contest with two formidable contenders.

I dread primaries with 20+ candidates. Nothing is learned. Everyone is attacked from all sides for no reason. And you don't necessarily end up with the best candidate, just one who commands the most loyal constituency.

[TeamPooka]

47. Harris/Brown 2020

[lark]

53. That is not what the poll shown says. If you are referencing another poll, shouldn't you show it?.

She's #2, Biden is #1 per the poll attached. Guess you could say it's good news for Harris but excellent news for Biden?

[Act_of_Reparation]

54. So, the most recognizable names lead the pack?

[DFW]

55. Amazing, isn't it?

The only reason any of them were in double digits is because Spider-Man hasn't yet announced his exploratory committee.

[JustAnotherGen]

57. It just started

Not everyone has even declared their candidacy yet. Let's wait and see and not get into the horserace until we've gather all of the best ideas from our Premiere League of candidates!