Poll predicted last elections accurately

[BlueinOhio]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/08/22/election-model-with-100-success-rate-predicts-romney-victory/
Poll predicts a Romney win unless the economy improves. We all know the GOP will do everything in thier power to make sure there is no improvement. Is this the excuse they will use win they hack the voting machines?

[Laurian]

1. I've seen this mentioned in at least three different threads tonight....

Why?

[99Forever]

5. I've seen two.

Both were started by newbies with under 100 posts.

Make of that what you will.

[cthulu2016]

2. noted concern is noted

[MrSlayer]

3. Most people simply do not pay attention.

If everyone objectively looked at what has been going in in Washington the past four years there is no way this would even be close. There is no way we would have gotten trounced in 2010.

But they don't and we're in serious trouble here. Serious trouble indeed.

[CabCurious]

4. This presumes things always work in predictable ways...

Which is inherently ridiculous.

[Dkc05]

6. I think the poll is a fraud

Don't panic let's just work hard to get people out to vote on election dayI I think the poll is a fraud

[samsingh]

7. if it predicted a bush win in 2000 and 2004, then it is clearly wrong

2000 was definitely a Gore win. 2004 was likely stolen in Ohio

[CJCRANE]

8. It's a "postdiction" model, as mentioned in the other threads.

They looked back and analysed the data to find the commonalities. They didn't predict anything.

You could use different data points to get a different result.

[longship]

9. Rubbish. Data mining and post hoc ergo propter hoc.

This is like taking stock market data, looking for correlations and then announcing that you can predict the future stock market by the correlates.

This is a monumental statistical fallacy.

Correlation does not imply causation.

Enough with these bullshit threads.

You might as well correlate the election to the zodiac signs. I am sure their are correlations with the numerological elements of the year number.

[SalviaBlue]

10. Are you concerned, BlueinOhio?

[JaneyVee]

11. That poll has never seen a Republican party this bat-shit INSANE before either.