Bernie Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire

[Garrett78]

It seems highly unlikely that Sanders will do as well in the first 2 contests as he did in 2016. There will be other candidates who appeal to his constituency. He isn't running against a polarizing frontrunner who many had been conditioned to hate. How is he going to pull off 2nd place or better in both IA and NH?

If he doesn't, where does he go from there? Nevada and South Carolina aren't going to save him.

I have a hard time seeing Sanders make it all the way to Super Tuesday. Even with the necessary funds to continue, there will be no justification for continuing.

[honest.abe]

1. Yeah, that is the only saving grace in all this.

He will probably do so poorly he will be forced to drop out early.

[Garrett78]

4. Just imagine if we started with states that actually reflect our electorate.

[flotsam]

8. Which are? N/T

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. California

[Garrett78]

10. Maryland, Illinois, Arizona, Florida, California, etc.

As opposed to 2 of the whitest, most rural states in the US.

[irresistable]

2. He doesn't have to do as well in those two states.

He does, however, need to win them.
He might be able to do that with 30%.

[Garrett78]

3. By "as well," I'm referring to where he placed. 2nd in Iowa and 1st in New Hampshire.

I don't think he'll place as high in either. Even if he does, he faces a very rough road after New Hampshire.

Just imagine if we started with states that actually reflect our electorate.

[comradebillyboy]

5. 'Just imagine if we started with states that actually reflect our electorate.'

Wouldn't it be lovely.

[Garrett78]

6. Yes. I've suggested Maryland and Florida or Illinois and Arizona.

The Iowa and New Hampshire tradition needs to die. As do all caucuses.

[comradebillyboy]

7. Absolutly

[romana]

11. He will stay in

He will stay in long past his shelf life as long as people keep sending him money. He will use it as leverage at the convention if he can garner enough delegates and people willing to protest at the convention.

[Garrett78]

12. He will have a much tougher time justifying that. It'll be a completely different situation.

He won't be in a 1-on-1 race, and he won't be running against someone who millions had been conditioned to hate.

2nd in Iowa and 1st in New Hampshire propelled him forward. I don't think he'll place as high in those states in 2020. Then, losses in Nevada and South Carolina will be a clear signal that Sanders has no business sticking around the way he did in 2016.