What 2018 tells us about 2020
DAVID BRADY, DOUG RIVERS, & BRETT PARKER
... In the 2014 midterm elections, some 83 million Americans voted; by contrast, 118 million Americans cast a ballot in 2018, a 40 percent increase. Indeed, it has been more than 100 years since an off-year election produced a better turnout. Presidential elections, of course, attract an even greater share of voters, and the 2020 electorate will be younger and less white, both of which are factors that normally favor Democrats. If the extraordinary 2018 turnout is any indication, the 2020 Presidential election vote totals will be enormous, exceeding 2016 ...
... The midterms were a referendum on Trump. Figures 1 and 2 show the generic congressional vote, broken down by presidential approval numbers. From the very beginning of YouGov’s election polling in September, 80 percent of those who approved of Trump planned on voting Republican; the opposite held true for those who disapproved. Those proportions rose over the course of the campaign, however, and by Election Day, 90 percent both approvers and non-approvers intended to vote for congressional candidates consistent with their views of the Trump presidency. Since more voters disapproved of Trump than approved of him, the Democrats had an advantage going into November ...
... The racial gap is generally the largest, usually topping 35 percent, but it actually decreased in 2018 as compared to previous years. This change is entirely attributable to the increase in the proportion of whites voting for Democrats ...
... the gender gap did not shift significantly in 2018 ...
... College educated citizens voted 59 percent for Democrats, versus 49 percent of those without a degree. As such, the education gap was 10 percent, up from 8 percent in 2016 ...
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/01/18/what-2018-tells-us-about-the-democrats-chances-in-2020/
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