Demographics of the Electorate

[struggle4progress]

By Myra Adams - RCP Contributor
February 22, 2019

According to .. RealClearPolitics polling average, President Trump’s job approval is 44.3 percent with 52.6 percent of voters disapproving of his performance.

Now contrast his job approval with that of the last two presidents at this same point in their first term... On Feb. 22, 2011, the RCP job approval average for Barack Obama was 48.5 percent with 45.7 percent disapproving. On this same day in 2003, George W. Bush’s average was 57 percent with 37 percent disapproving.

It is also notable that Trump’s job approval average throughout 2018 and up to today has yet to reach 45 percent. Conversely, his average disapproval rating has consistently ranged between 51 and 55 percent ...

... the recent Pew Research Center study, "An Early Look at the 2020 Electorate" ... projects that whites will comprise 66.7 percent of eligible voters; Hispanics, 13.3 percent; blacks, 12.5 percent; and Asians, 4.7 percent. The fact that non-whites will comprise roughly one-third of eligible voters would not be a problem for Trump and the Republican Party if they did not overwhelming and consistently vote Democratic ...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/02/22/trumps_real_2020_foe_demographics_of_the_electorate_139543.html

[BigmanPigman]

1. I heard today that Repub approval rating for him is 89%!

[littlemissmartypants]

2. But don't independents make up the largest voting block?

Last I looked there are more independent voters than democrats, then thugs. Anyone know anything different? Please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you.

[BigmanPigman]

3. I don't know what the current break down is

but I wonder if there is a poll for just Independents. If they are the largest group than we should track how they are leaning.

[littlemissmartypants]

4. Great idea! I don't really know what polls to check.

I get all my poll info here, at DU.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I hope Pew is correct about a drop to 66.7% whites

That sounds overly optimistic to me. The white vote had been dropping steadily but Trump reversed the trend in 2016. Pew projected 69% in 2016 but it turned out to be 72% according to the national exit poll, or 73.3% if you use numbers from a census.gov article.

I'll just post a link to that census.gov article because it has many helpful tables, and description of voting demographics and related trends:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html

[GOPBasher]

6. This is good news, but polling doesn't take into account right wing voter suppression tactics.

This analysis assumes a fair election, and I'm not sure we can count on that