Economic models point to a Trump blowout in 2020.

[Gothmog]

I have seen similar studies. It is not a given that trump is beatable in 2020. If the economy is in good shape, then there are models and studies that show that trump can win. Obama left trump with a great economy and trump may not screw up the Obama economy before 2020 and get re-elected.

Link to tweet

I am not counting on the Obama economy faltering and so I am worried. We have to defeat trump

Trump could prove these models wrong by being the biggest asshole in history. Again, historically presidents tend to be re-elected if the economy is in good shape at the time of the re-election and even trump may not e able to screw up the Obama recovery

We need to work even harder to defeat trump

[OhZone]

1. Didn't economic models say Hillary would win?

As well as predictive/betting sites and Nate Silver, although Nate did see trends others didn't

I'm not sure these models work in these weird times.

And the economy is already getting unsteady.

[Javaman]

2. Economic models also didn't factor in russian fuckery. nt

[Gothmog]

7. There was models that predicted that trump would win

Last edited Thu Mar 21, 2019, 12:39 PM - Edit history (1)

Professor Lichtman is well respected and he predicted that trump would win
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, sat down with The Fix this week to reveal who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

[unblock]

3. it's a bit early for this as many economists are predicting a recession in 2020.

but yeah, avoiding a recession would certainly help donnie's chances.

i'm thinking that democrats still have the edge regardless, but donnie's toast in a recession.


i find the "a giant scandal could change everything" notion funny. donnie *is* a giant scandal, it's he's entire persona.

[Gothmog]

4. The Fed has cut growth estimates and there will be no intesrest rate increases in the near future

There may be a recession but it is early.

I hate to rely on a downturn to defeat trump. I hope that trump is such an asshole that he proves these models wrong

[NewJeffCT]

5. The Fed is forecasting the economy slowing down this year

from 2.8/2.9% in 2018 to 2.1% for 2019.

And, that's after Trump blew up the debt and deficit to get the sugar "high" of 2018.

[PTWB]

6. The Trump presidency isn't normal. Full stop.

Economic models don’t matter. Scandals don’t matter. The ONLY thing that matters is selecting an awesome candidate in the primary - one who will rally our base and draw moderate independents. Someone like Obama in 2008.

2020 will be us vs. them. Trump’s supporters don’t give a fuck what scandals may emerge.


If we select someone who can turn out the vote we win. If we don’t, we lose. Simple as that.

[unblock]

8. models obviously aren't 100% correct; sometimes they disagree. but worth paying attention to them.

they are based on a long history of elections, some of which have had unique features. it's always tempting to say "this time is different", but in truth, each time is different, yet they still seem to conform to the predictions of good models.

the concern about the economy is that while recession is a good motivator for people to come out in november and vote for change, an economy that's not in recession can make people complacent even if they don't like the incumbent.

the economy is pretty much always a major force in presidential elections, so i think it very much matters.

that's not to say donnie's got a lock if we manage to avoid a recession, but it will be a tough race for us if it stays out of negative territory.


i agree that a charismatic democratic candidate would help us immensely, and donnie not winning the nomination (possibly due to legal troubles) would also help us.

[PatSeg]

13. I read a similar article this morning

and though it is possible Trump could win, I think it is highly improbable. Psychologically, I'm not sure he can survive another six months and meanwhile, the scandals just keep on coming.

A lot of people are getting hurt in this so-called great economy and it is only going to get worse with Trump's ridiculous tariff wars.

The energy and enthusiasm on the left is unlike anything I've seen in decades, so I don't see Trump getting even close to re-election, but let him and his minions believe it.

As you said, this "isn't normal" and can't be compared to previous administrations.

[handmade34]

9. no reason to lose

if we get every person possible to get to the polls to vote... there are more of us than them if we just VOTE!

[BlueJac]

10. We will see...

think and work positively for our candidate! Stay united to defeat this asshole President!

[BlueFlorida]

11. I really don't think

that Trump can win PA, WI and MI this time around.

If Sherrod Brown is on the ticket, he may lose Ohio and Indiana as well.

[theophilus]

12. Isn't Politico known (recently) for this kind of crap stirring?

There is more to the situation than a "pretty good" economy. The common working folks were screwed with the tax "cut" and Trump keeps throwing sand into the gears with his tariff stupidity. I don't think there is a chance of a Trump "landslide" unless outside hackers change millions of votes. That could happen. If he even wins by one vote this country, which is now on life support, will be dead and buried.....or maybe just left to rot in the sun. I don't buy this manure.

[CrispyQ]

14. I'm not feeling this "good" economy.

Every trip to the grocery store I see items go up by 25-50 cents, not just a nickel or a dime. My annual house/car insurance went up $370 from last year & last year it was up $280 from the year before. My income can't keep up. More & more of our discretionary income is being re-directed toward essentials.

[Gothmog]

16. Trump's 'Greatest Economy Ever' Has Created Fewer Jobs Than Jimmy Carter

Link to tweet

[Power 2 the People]

15. Well said Gothmog.

[theboss]

17. It's really a testament to Trump's toxicity that he doesn't poll closer to 60 percent

All the general trends that tend to prop up presidents are in his favor.

It doesn't help that he sells a crazy, contradictory message.

The economy is great, but we are being screwed in trade.

Crime is as low as it has ever been, but it's never been more dangerous.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

21. Don't forget immigration

Undocumented immigration is a national emergency........except that it's not really

[Gothmog]

25. If the economy is strong, trump can win

We have to focus on electability

[Gothmog]

18. If the economy remains strong, trump could win in 2020

[Andy823]

19. If Democrats get out and vote

There will be no more trump, no matter what Politico says.

[Gothmog]

20. You are preaching to the choir

GOTV is the key

[Gothmog]

22. Donald Trump has a plan to win re-election with just 45 percent of the vote

Link to tweet

And that’s why, as Axios reports, they are planning to hold on to the minority of voters who support the president while working overtime to launch a scorched-Earth campaign against the eventual Democratic nominee.

“The GOP]is going to make whoever the nominee is radioactive well before they get the nomination,” one former Trump campaign aide explained. “That’s Trump’s strategy. Stay at 45-46 percent [in the polls] and just make the other guy radioactive.”

Given Trump’s own unpopularity, the campaign reasons, the only way to get him back into the White House will be to convince swing voters that the Democratic nominee will pack the Supreme Court, end the Electoral College, and grant reparations to black Americans.

Throughout his first term, Trump has consistently posted lower approval ratings than any of his predecessors. FiveThirtyEight’s average of public opinion polls at the moment gives Trump an approval rating of just under 42 percent with a disapproval rating of 53 percent.

[Johonny]

23. If they dump ACA with an inverted yield curve, and no end to China problems

then look out below...

[Gothmog]

24. According to this study trump could win

There are posters who believe that we can nominate the most liberal/socialist nominee as possible and that candidate will easily win because everyone hates trump. It is their position that this is a historic opportunity to nominate someone would otherwise not be electable. This theory is wrong in that most POTUS are re-elected if the economy is good. Here is a scary study that shows this

Link to tweet

There are good reasons to doubt this study

Link to tweet

I do not believe that trump is assured of winning. If we want to win, Democrats need to nominate a strong nominee who is NOT too far out of the mainstream

[JustAnotherGen]

28. +1 n/t

[kimbutgar]

26. Today in my local paper there was a story about California wineries shut out in China

Because of fat Donnie’s tariffs. The Canadian border becomes barrier for tech workers, the INS is not letting tech workers in from Canada. Powerful storms kill at least 8 in the south (where is the money coming from to rebuild those devastated areas?) The Sunday business section had an article more retail locations closing putting people out of work and farmers in Iowa are getting hurt by the tariffs.

Just looking at these headlines I think our economy is going to get weaker as we get closer to 2020. Fat Donnie is an ass who is in over his head and put greedy stupid people in managing our government. NO the economy will not be good by November 2020. And don’t get me started on people pissed they have to pay more taxes this year because they got hoodwinked by getting bigger paychecks because they did not change withholding for 2018 taxes. What will happen to those people who don’t have that money to pay those big tax bills? Take out loans from unethical money lenders freed by oversight by the CPB? Yep perfect storm for fatdonnie to get his ass handed to him in 2020.

[Gothmog]

30. The current economy is a continuation of the Obama recovery

trump is trying to screw up the economy and may well succeed.

[JustAnotherGen]

27. Just an aside Gothmog

If the economy was good when the 45 was first elected, and it is still good . . . is it possible that economic anxiety wasn't a factor in the 2016 election?

Food for thought - and I know you will get where I'm coming from.

[Gothmog]

29. A good economy helps the incumbent

Hillary was not the incumbent

The Goldman Sachs study and the other studies cited are based on historical trends. While the concept that "those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it" has a great deal of merit, it my hope that the 2020 election will not be about the economy.

It is my personal position that the current economy is the continuation of the Obama recovery and that all trump has done was not to damage the recovery. That will be difficult to sell

I am hoping that we can keep the economy from being the main issue in the 2020 race because if it the economy is the issue, then trump may win.

[Gothmog]

31. A U.S. recession looks less likely in 2020, boosting Trump's chances of reelection

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

32. Washngton Post-It's easy to see how Trump can win reelection

From Larry Sabato https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-economy-got-nixon-reagan-and-bush-reelected-it-could-do-it-for-trump-too/2019/04/23/b8920d34-65e6-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html?utm_term=.a35b315730d2

Ultimately, Trump may turn out to be at the mercy of conventional factors. In 2016, academic predictive models based on fundamentals such as the state of the economy suggested that Trump, or any other Republican candidate, was in position to win the election or come very close. This time, such models (once they become operative next year) could make Trump the early favorite despite his poor approval ratings.

Credit the powers of incumbency and a strong economy, the state of which may matter more to Trump’s odds than nearly anything else. Incumbency and the economy, among other matters, ended up being more than enough for Nixon, Reagan and Bush. Despite Trump’s unprecedented outlandishness, that same combination might work for him, too.

[Gothmog]

33. Opinion: If the economy keeps its momentum, 2020 will be Trump's to lose

If trump does not destroy the Obama recovery, then 2020 will be a very close election. I reject the concept that we can afford to nominate a weak/far left nominee. trump will beat a far left candidate easily if the economy remains strong

Link to tweet

One wonders whether, at some point, the economic boom will be so huge that it will drive opinions on its own. Once Democrats settle on a nominee, voters will have to make a choice: Do they stick with the guy they’ve got, warts and all, who has contributed to such good times? Or are they willing to take the risk that the next president, even if he or she is a better person, will screw things up with a new agenda?

One election model from Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, suggests the economy will be the winning factor. His “time for change” model has a solid track record in predicting the outcome and direction of presidential races, and data he published last month show that, so long as the economy continues to grow at a 2 percent clip, Trump should be a favorite for reelection even if his job approval rating is as poor as it is now.

Indeed, it’s even better than that for Trump. The model calculates an average gain of 2.5 electoral votes for every one-point Trump shaves off of his net job disapproval. According to the model, even if gross domestic product growth slumps to 1 percent, Trump could win the minimum 270 electoral votes he needs for reelection by lowering his net job disapproval rating to 7 percent. Right now, that number is around 10 percent.

Media attention is focused on the Mueller report and other congressional investigations. But if the economy keeps its momentum, even that or Trump’s failure to trumpet his success might not prevent him from winning a second term.

[Gothmog]

34. Trump can win with 45% of the vote

Link to tweet

And that’s why, as Axios reports, they are planning to hold on to the minority of voters who support the president while working overtime to launch a scorched-Earth campaign against the eventual Democratic nominee.

“The GOP]is going to make whoever the nominee is radioactive well before they get the nomination,” one former Trump campaign aide explained. “That’s Trump’s strategy. Stay at 45-46 percent [in the polls] and just make the other guy radioactive.”

Given Trump’s own unpopularity, the campaign reasons, the only way to get him back into the White House will be to convince swing voters that the Democratic nominee will pack the Supreme Court, end the Electoral College, and grant reparations to black Americans.

Throughout his first term, Trump has consistently posted lower approval ratings than any of his predecessors. FiveThirtyEight’s average of public opinion polls at the moment gives Trump an approval rating of just under 42 percent with a disapproval rating of 53 percent.

[Gothmog]

35. U.S. economy shakes free of recession fears in striking turnaround since August

Link to tweet