Redistricting Edge Saved GOP From Deeper Midterm Losses

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

That’s because they may have benefited from a built-in advantage in some states, based on how political districts were drawn, that prevented deeper losses or helped them hold on to power, according to a mathematical analysis by The Associated Press.

The AP’s analysis indicates that Republicans won about 16 more U.S. House seats than would have been expected based on their average share of the vote in congressional districts across the country. In state House elections, Republicans’ structural advantage might have helped them hold on to as many as seven chambers that otherwise could have flipped to Democrats, according to the analysis.

The AP examined all U.S. House races and about 4,900 state House and Assembly seats up for election last year using a statistical method of calculating partisan advantage that is designed to flag cases of potential political gerrymandering. A similar analysis also showed a GOP advantage in the 2016 elections.

The AP used the so-called “efficiency gap” test in part because it was one of the analytical tools cited in a Wisconsin gerrymandering case that went before the U.S. Supreme Court in 2017 and is part of a North Carolina case scheduled to be argued on Tuesday before the court. In that case, justices will decide whether to uphold a lower court ruling that struck down North Carolina’s congressional districts as an unconstitutional political gerrymander favoring Republicans.

[J_William_Ryan]

1. The reprehensible right

Is perfectly content with its minority rule.

[Gothmog]

2. Democrats would have picked up roughly 16 more House seats in the 2018 midterms

Link to tweet

[True Blue American]

3. John Boehner gerrymandered Ohio

Including his own District. We will have a committee in 2021.

[Firestorm49]

4. It sure as schmidt did in WI

[NewJeffCT]

5. So, Democrats could have had over 250 seats

without gerrymandering.

[Wounded Bear]

6. Not exactly "news" but I'm glad someone is writing about it...

[sarcasmo]

7. In Wisconsin we won by 8 percent, damn gerrymandering.

[Blue_Tires]

9. How much did Walker fuck up Wisconsin?

Link to tweet

[Hugin]

8. The bottom line is...

Last edited Fri Mar 22, 2019, 03:01 AM - Edit history (1)

Republicans cheat.

This doesn't even count the effects of voter suppression and other rigging.

[Gothmog]

10. I live in a heavily gerrymandered Congressional and state house seat

We need to flip some state legislatures

Link to tweet

Texas flipped 12 state house seats and two state senate seats. We need 8 more state house seats in 2020 to control the Texas House. This is very doable

[DeminPennswoods]

11. Helped the Rs hold on to the state house and senate

albeit with significantly reduced margins. PA's state house districts are heavily gerry-mandered although that is partly by consensus bi-partisan design to protect all incumbents. The every decade re-districting is sometimes jokingly called the "incumbent protection plan".