General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump, Capone, & Syphilitic Dementia
By late March, the crimes of Trump, his family, and his associates will much more fully exposed. More republicans will find it impossible to defend the Trump mob. The legal cases in the courts and the House committee investigations will be plowing the decaying feces known by the brand name the Trump administration under. And much of what might seem to be rotting will instead be understood to be part of the necessary process of germination. And between late March and June, those of us at the grass roots level will have the opportunity to plant the seeds of democracy as a follow-up to the fantastic efforts made for the last elections.
H2O Man; White House Rats; 12-25-2018
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211591082
A lot of people are concerned about the end of the Mueller Team's investigation. This includes many who are worried about what is being said about reports that this part of the investigation will not produce further indictments. And some are repulsed by the republicans gloating that there was no collusion. All of this, without any knowledge of what Mr. Mueller's report to Attorney General Barr says or doesn't say.
Let's take a closer look. To begin with, we know that what became the Mueller investigation started with a counter intelligence effort by the FBI. It expanded, due to evidence that numerous people connected to the Trump campaign were in contact with Russians and Russian-connected interests. This, as Malcolm Nance has pointed out, raised the question of if they were witting or unwitting dupes.
If they were witting dupes, it was possible that criminal charges would follow. If, on the other hand, they were merely half-wits being duped by Russia, their actions may or may not have been legal. An examination of this could lead prosecutors to charge them with other crimes related to their activities.
In either case, there are two factors to keep in mind. First, the counter intelligence investigation involved intelligence from both other domestic agencies, and information from at least three other countries. Much of this is from levels that federal prosecutors rarely, if ever, can use as evidence in a court case. Hence, we hear former federal prosecutors and intelligence people on the news making the distinction between intelligence and evidence.
This intelligence is almost never used when a related counter intelligence operation is ongoing. This can, unfortunately, tie the hands of prosecutors in a large case such as Mr. Mueller was investigating. Yet that does not equal the entire case being over. (Mr. Mueller's indictment of the Russian military intelligence members was based upon intelligence.)
The second factor is that federal prosecutors only indict when they know the evidence they have provides a higher level of certainty of a conviction than the beyond a reasonable doubt instruction a jury receives. This concept is essential for our understanding of what will be coming after the Mueller report. I've been told that a federal prosecutor needs to believe she/he has a 95% chance of getting a conviction to move forward.
There has been speculation -- from sources reliable and unreliable that there were sealed filings in the court where the Mueller team filed indictments and other related documents. Based upon the sequence of those filings, some thought they might be indictments from Mueller. The fact that none were unsealed on Friday indicates they are not from Team Mueller.
However, recent court activities relating to Rick Gates, as well as Michael Flynn, indicate that investigations relating to the Trump crime family are on-going. As has been reported numerous times, Mr. Mueller began shifting cases to at least three other offices.
What does all this mean? I tend to listen closely to Nick Ackerman, when he is on MSNBC. I also have great respect for a retired investigator I speak with from time to time. Among other things, he helped put mobsters from the construction industry in the federal pen.
I like people who think outside the box. For example, can a president be indicted? The same part of the Constitution that addresses impeaching the president also covers the vice president and federal judges. Think Agnew. Consider a federal judge, Robert Collins, being incarcerated in 1991 before being impeached. No one is above the law.
Why no indictments for conspiring with the Russians? This can't be answered until Roger Stone's case is completed. But it may be due to the counter intelligence nature, as well as the 95% rule. Manafort's first trial showed that a single juror might disrupt justice. The Scooter Libby case showed that if one defendant refuses to tell the truth, even when facing conviction for lying, it makes it difficult to prosecute at the next level.
Yet, I was reminded that Patrick Fitzgerald openly called upon Congress to investigate VP Cheney's role per the Libby case. Justice requires coordination between those agencies and institutions tasked with insuring the rule of law.
Finally, I was reminded of the Capone Rule. Often, it is more of a sure thing to follow the money with mobsters, to get the sure conviction.
We don't know yet what the Mueller Report contains. It's unlikely we will, even if Barr shares his impressions with some in Congress today. Be patient. There is much more to follow.
Peace,
H2O Man
coeur_de_lion
(3,676 posts)We don't know yet what the Mueller Report contains. It's unlikely we will, even if Barr shares his impressions with some in Congress today. Be patient. There is much more to follow.
Do you mean that even after Barr shares his impressions we still won't see the Mueller report? OR that other things have been set in motion due to the conclusions of the Mueller report?
I am dizzy trying to sort out the potential ramifications of the report.
*Are we* exactly where we should be at this juncture? If so why? Or why not?
H2O Man
(73,506 posts)We won't know today, because Barr is only going to give his impressions to the members of Congress he will be speaking to. It is highly unlikely that he'll share the actual report today (if he does communicate his impressions today). The fact he didn't yesterday suggests the report is lomger and more complex than the republicans want us to believe.
It may be that Barr will be willing to release the report (minus some redactions) to Congress, and possibly the public. It most likely would be after at least a few days, probably longer.
We are exactly where we need to be in this difficult struggle. Not only are investigations continuing in the DOJ-FBI, but Democrats rule in the House of Representatives.
coeur_de_lion
(3,676 posts)and the Mueller report refers to the ongoing investigations, will they redact only those sections?
Will Individual 1 be able to crow about "no collusion"?
Or has collusion simply been referred to SDNY and other district courts?
H2O Man
(73,506 posts)Information on on-going investigations would be redacted.
Trump will always say "no collusion." That is not dependent on the Mueller Report. Or reality.
Issues relating to the counter intelligence part of the larger investigations will continue within the FBI and other intelligence agencies.
Mr.Bill
(24,228 posts)exonerated Trump and his associates and family, it would already be posted on the internet in it's entirety. Democrats need to be screaming "What are they hiding?" at the top of their lungs every time they are in front of a microphone right up until election day.
coeur_de_lion
(3,676 posts)Even Giuliani said the report would be devastating to trump.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)they are in front of a microphone, they will be taken as seriously as the GOP on their 57th vote to "repeal and replace" Obamacare.
Call me crazy, but I personally think that they should be continuing to do what they are doing, which is investigating and legislating like we sent them there to. They have no power over what Mueller put in his report, but apparently, many people who are very angry at them right now don't know that, and apparently don't know that it doesn't mean that investigations are over...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-investigations-expla/explainer-why-trumps-legal-woes-go-beyond-the-mueller-report-idUSKCN1R50S3
There are a few Dem congress reps that spend a lot of time on twitter tho, so perhaps following them on twitter will make you feel more validated in your anger.
Maxheader
(4,370 posts)Why would he be any different than the multitude that has already bailed
out on snuffy? Does the yellow haired idiot really have any 'hold' on this
guy?
H2O Man
(73,506 posts)that Barr is a "company man" who was loyal to Bush the Elder, and remains loyal to the Bush family.
Me.
(35,454 posts)As Jeb has been speaking out against him in recent weeks
Call it speculation on my part, but I think the Bush family has a strong dislike for Trump.
Scarsdale
(9,426 posts)or a son in law, who is a newly hired lawyer for tRump. Nepotism is for all, not just the tRumps in this administration.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)I figured that being included in the title was enough. (grin)
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Disappointed ... but only slightly
H2O Man
(73,506 posts)of it would seem to favor fuller consideration of it. But as usual, my essay was already too long.
Me.
(35,454 posts)I'm glad you mentioned the Fitzmas that never was because that is what has me worrying that once again, those at the very top, like Cheney & Raygun before him will never see the inside of a courtroom much less a prison cell.
H2O Man
(73,506 posts)that people are feeling uncomfortable right now. I get that. Yes, I surely do. But in this instance, I really believe that we are in a good place.
Hekate
(90,538 posts)H2O Man
(73,506 posts)I did outlines of two other essays in my mind last night, besides this one.
Karadeniz
(22,461 posts)malaise
(268,668 posts)My big cooking day - prescient as always
Agree - there is much to follow.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)Very informative and encouraging.
yonder
(9,654 posts)Also and without providing context to it, I like the predictive words from your essay in the link: ".....before it then becomes impossible."
To me, those words just sing with hope.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)They are too afraid of him and his Trumpers.
We will have to try to save our democracy w/o them.
Pepsidog
(6,254 posts)Blecht
(3,803 posts)emulatorloo
(44,057 posts)Pepsidog
(6,254 posts)NOT difficult and prosecutors are not shy in charging unless you are the president.
coeur_de_lion
(3,676 posts)MartyTheGreek
(564 posts)Cohen is going to jail in part for lying about TT Moscow. Cohen said at first talks ended Jan 2017 but later admitted talks went through June. Giuliani, (sp?) later said that talks went all the way to Nov 2016!
Add to that, ruskies bailed out DJT going back to the mid-1990's while oligarchs laundered Russia's wealth from oil and then into Trump properties where these type of transactions are easily hidden.
Manifort could have flipped but he didn't and Trump called him a strong man. So there's some still unresolved "witting" going on there too. Mueller's mandate ran its course, but blowback from what he discovered in less than two years, is possibly the opening chapter of the crime of the century against the United States.
The fact that Rosenstein stayed on as a "heat shield" for a "bit" longer says something too. The Heat: If the Mueller report appears weak and no "collusion" or conspiracy going on, but dozens of other cases spun off and exist in other FBI field offices, could this be a green light and attempt by Republicans to end all of the investigations by this corrupt administration. Recall the past few days were all about the "Fake Dossier" which is mostly true so far. Or, could the report be so rattling that Barr can't deny it and the possibility that we had a fraudulent election and therefore, we have a fraudulent and compromised president of the United States then the charges will be Conspiracy to commit fraud upon the United States, which "trumps" any no collusion claims any day of the week!+