The Barr memo is the low point for us but it is the high point for Trump. And that isn't a bad thing

[PTWB]

Like everyone else, I would have loved it if the Barr memo inculpated Trump in serious wrongdoing. I would have loved it if he had the stones to recommend prosecution or, at a minimum, impeachment and conviction. But that wasn't very likely and all of us (at least the ones paying attention) knew that.

It was almost a forgone conclusion that DOJ wasn't going to indict a sitting President.

It was also almost a forgone conclusion that the Republican Senate wasn't going to convict Trump, regardless of whether or not the House impeached him.


So, all that bad aside, here is what I think makes this actually not too bad:

The Barr memo, and the conclusion of the Mueller investigation, is the high point for Trump. It is only downhill from here for him. That memo was his get-out-of-jail-free card and he played it too early. If that memo was released in the days leading up to the 2020 election, it would have deflated our sails and could have helped him coast to a second term. But that isn't what happened and by 2020 the sting from the memo will have long faded.

What wont have faded is Trump's callous response to recent events, as he is sure to do, between now and then. There will be right wing terrorist attacks and he will blame "both sides." There will be major foreign policy blunders. There will be major domestic policy blunders, an economic slowdown, tax issues, unpopular trade wars, and many other major issues that will cast stink on Trump and his administration.

Not only that, but the longer the Republicans fight to withhold the actual report, the closer we will be to election day, and the fresher the true findings in that report will be in voters' minds. We know there are damaging details in the report - if there were not, Mueller would have cleared Trump. Barr's memo says as much - that Mueller couldn't exonerate Trump. There MUST be things in the report that are, at a minimum, severely concerning.

Let the Republicans delay. Let them bury the report completely. I can't think of a bigger motivating factor to get out the vote in a year and a half than if Republicans are STILL blocking the Mueller report, or substantial portions of it.

And lets not forget about all the other current investigations in SDNY, in NYS, etc. A lot more bad is going to come out about Trump before 2020.

TLDR; Trump peaked too early. It's only downhill from here for him.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Good post... thx!!

[sunnybrook]

2. Thank You!

Thank you so much for this. It is helpful to get beyond the despair this brings - I had trouble sleeping last night which hasn't happened since he was elected. It reminds me of that experience even down to "he didn't expect this good of an outcome" and the sinking feeling that someone as evil as him just keeps getting lucky. You are right it would have been horrible if this happened right before the election, the effect could be similar to the Comey announcement. I appreciate this fresh perspective and it has helped me in fighting the blues!

[customerserviceguy]

3. I appreciate your optomism

but I'm not convinced that this is Trump's high point. He still has to do a "Mission Accomplished" moment over the elimination of ISIS. Also, he's going to have a coronation for the GOP nomination, not the hard fought battle of 2016. Any never-Trumpers who are still that way will find a way to avoid the convention.

If Trump got to make one more SCOTUS appointment, presumably of Justice Ginsberg, it would electrify his base. Right now, Trump's low approval numbers are due to people being polled not wanting to seem too close to him, but by Election Day, they may decide that he is the least of two evils. I think that's how he pulled it off last time, when the polls showed that Hillary pretty much had it in the bag.