Hurricane Isaac impact on Tampa

[unc70]

I am a well-informed amateur regarding hurricanes. I grew up on the south coast of NC and have gone through a lot of them in my 60+ years. I know a fair amount about the systems.

WARNING
Isaac is slipping between Haiti and Cuba relatively intact. Usually storms are weakened through interactions with those mountains. The NHC forecasts will require significant upgrades today.

If you are in South Florida, quit reading DU and prepare for a possible Cat 2 storm on Sunday. It might be just a strong Cat 1, but be prepared.

Those on the west coast of Florida, my guess is this storm will be further east than earlier forecasts have indicated. That means more rain, gustier winds, tornados, and storm surged and flooding in the south facing bays.

Tampa could be a real mess Monday and into Tuesday. Jim Cantore will be speaking at the Republican Convention.

I now see a strong Cat 2 or more landfall in the Florida Panhandle, with significant impact on much of Florida's west coast.

And lurking far out in the Atlantic is a little something that has the look of trouble for the NC coast. Check back in a week.

[malaise]

1. You mean Isaac right?

[no_hypocrisy]

2. Freudian slip. I'd like to think of "Ike" coming back to punish the republicans

for veering so far to the right.

[malaise]

7. LOL

[unc70]

4. Yes, Freudian slip. Changed to Isaac

Updated my post. Thanks.

Just had The Weather Channel on. They are still showing a westerly track into Mississippi.

[dixiegrrrrl]

20. Interesting...Jeff Masters site showing it hitting Pensacola then

up into Alabama
coming right over my house.

[unc70]

21. Sometimes blog there, but rarely

It's a good site, JM particularly. The blog is mixed with a few great posters, but a bunch of idiots and trolls when storms are nearby. I post there on rare occasions under same username.

I checked JM's blog after I started this thread. Had just spent several hours on sites he often references.

Took a nap, now going to review latest observations and model updates.

[Berlum]

6. Issac (Meaning: He Will Laugh) - is a name based on a core Biblical myth

This whole scenario is kind of End Timey, and stuff, some say...

[Cooley Hurd]

3. The convention center is right on the waterfront, and even a mild storm surge could flood it...

They should pass out life jackets instead of goofy, phallic elephant hats...

[MadrasT]

5. OMG.

What were they thinking?

[TBF]

26. They don't think - ever. nt

[DonCoquixote]

31. waterfront views

and the fact that Channelside, the name for the district, grew up around the cruise terminals.

[unc70]

8. 6-10 feet would really do it

The storm surge is particularly hard to forecast. Timing, tides, the exact path of rotation of storm bands.

[Aerows]

12. They are not passing those out, are they?

Talk about being a dickhead.

[HooptieWagon]

13. No. It would take 10' or more of surge to threaten the Ice Palace and Convention Center.

Won't see anything near that, even in a worst-case scenerio of a cat1 making a direct hit.

[Cooley Hurd]

14. I guess the news didn't know what they were talking about...

[HooptieWagon]

15. There has been a lot of sensationalist reporting in out of town media.

Comparisons to Katrina, etc. Thats all complete hogwash. Isaac will be disruptive, for sure. Some outdoor events may have to be rescheduled or cancelled. If rain is heavy there may be some temporary street flooding. Delegates may find travel to and from a bit longer. And there may be some storm surge flooding in low areas - Bayshore south of downtown, several other spots in St Pete that frequently flood - but overall Isaac will most likely just be an aggravation for the RNC to deal with... not a life-threatening looming catastrophe.

[Cooley Hurd]

16. I'm not seeing any Katrina comparisons. The storm will be Cat2, at worst...

[HooptieWagon]

17. There has been a few in media, and a couple on DU.

Tampa is not below sea-level like NOLA, and it would take a direct hit from a strong cat2 or higher to threaten downtown with storm surge.

Fl Keys and panhandle will likely see much more damage than Tampa Bay region. Our biggest potential problem is whether the beaches will withstand the surf. Much of it washed away during Debby.

[Cooley Hurd]

18. Such claims are hysteria...

[HooptieWagon]

19. Agreed.

[unc70]

25. Agree main damage likely in panhandle

Just looked at latest 5:00pm forecast update. Still using models that initialized poorly. Eye is forming and closing about 20 miles off northeast coast of Cuba. Looks to me that NW storms will wrap around eye as it pulls away from mountains. Will strengthen more and faster than current forecast. Might make Cat 3 before landfall.

Strengthening will also increase northward component sooner. That would shift the track slightly eastward by 25-50 miles when passing closest to Tampa. It will also be a big storm, roughly 400 miles across.

Countering the turn to the east along the Florida west coast is, as always, the relatively shallow waters that limit the volume of water and energy close to land. While the water temps are high, it is too shallow to last long. We have a similar phenomena off Myrtle Beach SC, causing storms to slide northward and come ashore near Topsail.

Current storm flooding forecast for Tampa is 3-5 feet. If I am correct about strengthening and timing, would expect higher surge in Tampa Bay, 6-8 feet.

Mostly South Florida and the Panhandle should see the worst, but we really won't have a clear picture until Sunday morning.

[Blue_Roses]

58. New Orleans survived the initial storm of Katrina's hit...

that is,until the levee broke. Those levees should have been repaired and upgraded way before Katrina. It was always in the conversation with the locals that this would happen one day.

[unc70]

22. From maps looks more like 6-8 feet

You apparently live there and know better, but the FEMA maps show a lot of flooding at the 6 foot mark, and many of the facilities at about 8.

[HooptieWagon]

23. It would take 6' just to top the seawall.

Another few feet to flood the streets. The ground floors of the Ice Palace and Convention Center are another 6+ feet above the street. A storm like in '21 would do it... don't think Isaac will. Bayshore Blvd and Davis Islands could get flooding, they get it fairly regularly. I haven't seen water over the seawall downtown, ever. Been here since '65.

[unc70]

24. What about storm water flooding?

What is the interplay with storm water "drainage" in that area like? I know you are already rather soggy from even mor rain than usual, expecting 8-10+ inches ahead of surge. Would you already be flooding from the runoff before any breach of the seawall? Do you have pumps?

I haven't been to Tampa since my aunt in Clearwater died decades ago. Not familiar at all with how it is now. Know from experience in NC the limits of the maps. We have been getting 100-year flooding routinely, and nothing alerted us to what happened with Floyd.

[HooptieWagon]

28. No pumps. Streets will flood with heavy rain,

but drain fairly quickly unless tide is really high. Bayshore Blvd and Davis Islands are the big problem areas on the Tampa side of bay, plus some scattered intersections around town.

[adigal]

29. That sign behind this fool is even funnier!!!

People of compassion! Hahaha!

[hollysmom]

30. excuse me,. but who are "the people of compassion"?

[Lefta Dissenter]

38. kicked and recommended

for this photo alone.

[Blue Belle]

42. Nice hat...

"Your name wouldn't happen to be Dick, would it?"

[PCIntern]

61. I thought that pic was of a protestor!

...and said to myself: how creative.

What do I know?

[Cooley Hurd]

63. They were real!

Imagine the fun we had on DU when those pics came out!!

[trumad]

9. Long time Floridian who has had my sahre of Hurricanes.

Good info in your Op and I agree---Tampa is going to get its ass kicked.

They are on the bad side of the storm's path---LOL---the "right"...

I see the latest models have it at 90 mph when it gets up in the Tampa area.

[Warpy]

32. It looks like it's going to be far enough offshore that they'll

get gusts to gale force, heavy surf, and rain from feeder bands.

The most I'm hoping for are a few roof leaks that will get all their confetti soggy, giving them a wet blanket at the end of the convention. That might be worth watching.

[AwareOne]

10. The same people who planned their convention

on the coast of Florida during the peak of hurricane season want to run our country. Like the party itself, the more Issac veers to the right the more the Republicans suffer.

[Berlum]

11. "Heck of a job, fellow Repubbies." - xpResident AWOL Bush (R - FAIL)

[TBF]

27. Science Guy in Houston has been predicting

problems anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa, and also predicts strengthening in the Gulf as you have. If I were in Tampa I'd be securing the house and ready to head north.

[Warpy]

33. I'd put the trash cans and porch furniture inside

just in case, but that's about it for this one unless the track is revised to the east.

It's mostly going to be a Wet Willie for Tampa. The Panhandle is what's likely to get socked hardest.

[TBF]

37. I hope you're right -

I've actually been cleaning up here in preparation for the next couple weeks. I get my box ready and clean up outside just in case. We've been lucky the last few years - Ike was the last bad storm we had (2008). It's amazing how much damage they can do. There are still folks here that haven't fixed their roofs completely ... a lot of security fences knocked down and that sort of thing.

[Berlum]

34. Republicans are bringing their Hero Experts out of retirement to help them cope

[onethatcares]

35. ok, all the blah, blah blah about Tampa is fine but

I live in St. Pete. and don't really want to evac cause I'm not in a zone and my house is mid way between the bay and gulf.

Trash cans/lawn furniture and light weight movables are being put away as I type this.

[greytdemocrat]

36. Meh...

Pressure is 997 and foward speed of 20mph.

I'll be surprised if it makes CAT 2.

[unc70]

39. My updated forecast - prob intensifying

I am looking at latest sonde data from hurricane hunters, all the various models (including the ones that were initialized poorly), most of the same data available to the NHC, the input of experts like Dr Jeff Masters, and more sources than can probably remember. Plus 60+ years of experience.

It is a probabilities look at things. Watch what the forecast is after the model runs tonight.

There is a large UL high over Isaac plus additional LL/ML low over near GCay that appear ready to join for this RI scenario. If that happens, you get Panhandle landfall. Slower intensification would keep it on more westward track a la Katrina.

Almost too much data coming in to stop and post. Places like Dr Jeff's blog are flying. Everyone from NOLA east to Jacksonville Fl needs to pay attention.

ETA That means a Cat 1+ in south Florida, a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3 offshore Tampa, and at landfall in Panhandle.

Wind gusts in places like Tampa will be strong because of gradient with high.

[greytdemocrat]

40. Very disorganized storm...

IMO. No eye or Eye Wall, pressure pretty high and steady. I think people are getting way too wound up about this storm. Look at the radar images...

[unc70]

41. Tomorrow morning better organized

The storm has been decoupled for 24+ hours. Center of circulation at different altitudes are not attached on top of esc other. Even organized storms go through eyewall replacement cycles every 36-48 hours as eye spreads out too much. Smaller vortices spin off into the big eye, forming 2-3 competing smaller eyes.

Intensities usually drop during EWRCs, so does accuracy of forecast.

Expect it look a lot different by Sunday noon. Expect it to be stronger and tracking more eastward after 48 hours.

Both the NHC and TWC are not talking much about anything past south Florida. Lots of model uncertainty now. The G-IV data and the Hurricane Hunter data will be a lot better when they can fly through the whole storm. (The aren't allowed to sample when over land.)

[greytdemocrat]

46. Possible...

I don't see what you see yet but we know these storms can explode when conditions are right so who knows.

I'm out of the "Cone of Death" so I'm happy for now.

[NCarolinawoman]

47. Thanks for this information.

Yeah, I still remember Hurricane Floyd here in NC. The damage of its flooding surprised so many people. One of the reasons was that the ground had already become saturated by a previous tropical storm. Kind of a one/two punch.

I think that flooding was suppose to be a "once every 500 year" sort of thing.

[WI_DEM]

43. It's not funny but what if President Obama flew into Tampa next week to inspect hurricane damage

and aid the people who might be displaced? I wonder if the GOP would decry government interferance?

[panader0]

44. What about Charlotte in Sept?

[unc70]

45. Too far out for much confidence

Last edited Sun Aug 26, 2012, 12:12 AM - Edit history (1)

The remnants of Isaac are likely to come up through GA and SC and dump a lot of rain in the Charlotte area before the Dem convention. NC is not in the drought like GA. Unlikely that Isaac will have much mpact on Charlotte.

NC gets a lot if rain most of the time. This morning, areas just east of the Triangle got 11-15" of rain in four hours. I probably got 3" here.

There is a disturbance coming off Africa that the global models make into a super storm near the Carolina coasts near end of Dem convention. Won't worry about it for 6-7 days from now. Even if it were real, would still be far from Chatlotte. Hugo was last major hit to Florida. Correction: Not Florida, Charlotte.

[Skip Intro]

49. unc70, Hugo hit the Charleston SC area, not FL.

I remember, because I was here for it, lol.

I know Hugo had a big impact on Charlotte too, surprising many.

I think the last major one to hit FL was Andrew - ?

[unc70]

50. Was referring to other storm in forecast

A big storm heading towards Charleston would be a threat to Charlotte. That possibility is too far in the future to worry about now.

[Skip Intro]

52. Oh I know, and it is fascinating, but you said -

Hugo hit FL, in your post just above. Last line in the post...

"Hugo was last major hit to Florida. "

But Hugo didn't hit FL.

That's all I'm saying.

[unc70]

54. Duh. You're right. Posted too much

Sorry. Time for bed. Thanks

[Skip Intro]

48. Term "Rapid Intensification" being used on Dr. Jeff's blog.

This is a fascinating situation.

Real time and changing fast.

Just fascinating to watch.

At the same time, I hope no harm comes from it.

[Buzz Clik]

51. From weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/atlantic-depression-storm-nine-20120817

[kentauros]

53. And for those of you in or near its path that want to "shelter in place"

(meaning you aren't in any of the mandatory evacuation zones) have a little fun via the local news media:



(original PDF from our local Houston Press - http://media.houstonpress.com/2414288.0.pdf)
(Also, it might need to be changed for your local area to whomever is the PhD weather expert as well as the nearest city, plus date/year.)

Stay safe, y'all!

[unc70]

55. Models changing big time - towards NOLA

Last edited Sun Aug 26, 2012, 05:18 AM - Edit history (1)

The first of the current model runs are showing a strong Isaac approaching MS, then sliding west to LA or TX!!!!

I had said in an earlier post that people from NOLA to Jackdonville FL should stay alert. May need to make that TX or OK eastward.

Until morning.

[spin]

56. I lived in the Tampa Bay area for 37 years. I have watched many hurricanes pass the region. ...

IF Issac follows the predicted track, The Tampa Bay area will see some feeder bans with short periods of rain and some strong gusts of wind IF Issac is a very large category one hurricane.

If Issac is a much more powerful storm than currently predicted it will probably be much smaller and consequently it will have little or no effect on the Tampa Bay area.

Of course hurricanes can have a mind of their own, so anyone who lives in the Tampa Bay area needs to watch the news.

I now live in northern Florida but if I was still living in the Tampa Bay area, I would not be overly concerned. I would however stock up on beer, batteries, canned food and water. I would also have my car's gas tank filled and have a bug out bag and all my valuable papers packed in case I had to haul ass. It is also wise to have some cash with you as credit cards don't work well in a power outage.

For those who unfamiliar with the term:

A bug-out bag[1][2] is a portable kit that contains the items one would require to survive for seventy-two hours[3][4] when evacuating from a disaster. It is also known as a 72-hour kit,[5] a grab bag,[6] a battle box, and other popular names include "Personal Emergency Relocation Kits" (PERKs) GO Bag and GOOD (Get Out Of Dodge)[7] bag. The focus is on evacuation, rather than long-term survival, distinguishing the bug-out bag from a survival kit, a boating or aviation emergency kit, or a fixed-site disaster supplies kit. The kits are also popular in the survivalism subculture.[8]

***snip***

The primary purpose of a bug-out bag is to allow one to evacuate quickly if a disaster should strike.[10] It is therefore prudent to gather all of the materials and supplies that might be required to do this into a single place, such as a bag or a few storage containers. The recommendation that a bug-out bag should contain enough supplies for seventy-two hours arises from advice from organizations responsible for disaster relief and management that it may take them up to seventy-two hours to reach people affected by a disaster and offer help.[3] The bag's contents may vary according to the region of the user, as someone evacuating from the path of a hurricane may have different supplies than someone one that lives in an area prone to tornadoes or wildfires.

In addition to allowing one to survive a disaster evacuation, a bug-out bag may also be utilized when sheltering in place as a response to emergencies such as house fires, blackouts, tornadoes, and other severe natural disasters.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bug-out_bag

(Note: the link contains an excellent list of items to have with you when you bug out)

In other words I wouldn't be overly concerned if I lived in the Tampa Bay area but I would be prepared.

[Cha]

57. Good Advice! I live on Kaua'i and

since going through Iniki in '92 with my fellow Islanders.. we always have extra batteries, water, canned food, propane stove, flashlights, candles, etc, stashed perpetually.

I don't drive anymore but good to have one's car gassed up too, like you said, spin.

[unc70]

59. You are probably right

Some things you learn by long experience living in an area. Tampa Bay being set back does protect you a lot. You are more likely to suffer from a storm tracking NE north of you towards Cedar Key heading to the Atlantic

I know the Atlantic coast far better. The Savannah area is protected. Wilmington to Hateras, very unprotected.

Track of Isaac after Monday is causing a nightmare for NHC. The computer models are all over the place from TX and LA to Florida. There are weather features as far as Colorado that the models are dealing with (or not dealing).

The latest NHC track has shifted towards MS, but no one has much confidence.

[spin]

64. The Tampa Bay area will be hit by a major hurricane someday soon ...

Climate of the Tampa Bay area

***snip***

Tropical systems

June through November is hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean Sea, with the most tropical activity occurring between mid-August to mid-October.[19] Rain dropped by tropical systems is an important component of the area's annual precipitation and is vital for replenishing the water supply of communities around Tampa Bay.[20]

The area feels some effect from passing tropical systems almost every year, but direct hits are uncommon. Estimates of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in the Tampa Bay area during any given year range from 1 in 25 to 1 in 50.[4][21] While the historical record has shown that the area is vulnerable to a large storm (such as the Great Gale of 1848, which destroyed most of the village of Tampa), Tampa Bay has not seen the landfall of any hurricane since 1946, and has not taken a hit from a major hurricane since 1921.[22][23]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Tampa_Bay_area

1921 Tampa Bay hurricane



***snip***

Western Florida

The reports of rainfall from the hurricane began on October 23 as the storm was making landfall. The highest rainfall total in Tampa was at 8.53 inches (23.5 mm). When the storm made landfall, the barometric pressure fell to 28.81 inches (968 mbar), breaking a previous record set in 1910. The hurricane also brought sustained winds of 75 mph (119 km/h) and a storm tide of 10.5 feet (3 meters). In Punta Gorda, a water gauge recorded a tide 7 feet (2.5 meters) above normal. Tides 5–6 feet (1.5–2 meters) above normal were also reported in St. Petersburg and Punta Rassa.[2] The hurricane also brought a storm surge of 10–12 feet (3 to 3.5 m) to Tampa Bay.[3]

The storm surge damaged a fishing pier in St. Petersburg and destroyed a casino in Gulfport. In Tampa, much of the city was flooded, and three people were killed in drowning incidents and flying debris.[3] In Pasco County, the hurricane destroyed the Mt. Zion Baptist Church, which was never rebuilt.[4] In addition, the hurricane virtually destroyed much of Passage Key, part of which was later rebuilt.[5] In Tampa, several buildings of the historic Ballast Point Pavilion were destroyed by the storm.[6] A steamship capsized between Jacksonville and Miami and there were reports of damage to several other small boats offshore. Agricultural damage from the hurricane was high, with citrus crop losses totaling to $1 million (1921 USD). Damage to fertilizer and other materials also totaled to $1 million (1921 USD).[2] In all, the hurricane left 10 people dead (seven unaccounted for) and left $10 million dollars (1921 USD, $92.4 million (2005 USD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

Quite possibly the most dangerous factor to the Tampa Bay area when it is struck by a hurricane will be the storm surge.


http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1029

[Blue_Roses]

65. Once it hits those warm open gulf waters

it will be easier to see where the eye will end up.

Thank-you for your updates! My grandparents lived in Galveston (I grew up in Louisiana) and me and my sister always spent summers down there. I remember Hurricane Cecila skirting past Galveston and slamming Corpus Christi with 125+ winds. We were lucky it didn't directly hit Galveston. I was 9 and excited--not realizing the danger we were in at the time. My grandparents held their fear from us. I remember my grandfather taking us out to the seawall way before it hit and the outterbands were causing water to splash up over the seawall a little. (my mother would have had a heart attack if she had known this at the time!) It was exciting, however I'm sure that would have changed if we would have taken the full brunt of Cecila's wrath.

That storm was projected to hit Galveston, but turned at the last minute. That was 1970 so predicting landfall is more accurate these days.(or so we think!) My grandmother used her big seaman's map and the radio to keep track of it. My grandfather preferred the T.V....lol. Those were the good old days...

[LonghornJack]

66. That was Hurricane "Celia"

Blue Rose, your comment brought back a lot of bad memories. That was Hurrican Celia (not "Cecilia&quot that walloped the Gulf Coast in August, 1970. You're right about the storm skirting the Galveston area. In fact, it was predicted, on the evening before landfall, to stike just south of there. Overnight, it changed course and drew a bead on Corpus Christi, TX (my home town).

The storm was a Category 2 (winds of about 90 mph), as of Monday morning, August 3rd. It stalled for about 4 - 5 hours, and -- unbeknownst to us on the coast -- intensified to nearly a Cat 5 hurricane. The anemometer at the Corpus Christi airport read 160 mph when it broke. I can't describe the extent of the damage. Suffice it to say that we were without running water for 2 weeks and without power for 3 weeks.

I wouldn't wish this kind of destruction on anyone. (Although I would settle for a few heavy squalls in Tampa for Tuesday and Wednesday. )

LHJ

[Blue_Roses]

68. Close enough...

sorry about the bad memories. I'm sure I would be singing a different tune had she hit Galveston. I was looking over some of the old pictures of the destruction on this website:
http://m.caller.com/photos/galleries/2008/may/30/hurricane-celia---1970/

and it made me realize just how fortunate we were that we missed a direct hit. My grandparents lived on the other side of Broadway street, which wasn't too far from the beach. The seawall was already seeing some waves, so I can only imagine how bad it could have been with a full storm surge.

Wow, I didn't realize it intensified to a cat 5...unbelievable how this seemed to stall and then fire up the way it did. I remember my grandparents talking about it and saying how thankful they were that they were spared,but it would be weeks before they realized just how much. Ike took care of that with it's massive destruction. Our family had just taken vacation there two months before Ike hit. My grandparent's house has long been gone (it's now a hospital parking lot) but I showed my kids the area and how close we were to the beach and the fun. Little did I know that two months later Ike would hit. We even went in the gift shop that was washed away. It was so sad for all of us.

Such devastation...and High Island was eviscerated. The strength of mother nature is not taken for granted.

[Bosonic]

60. useful free storm tracker

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker

[greytdemocrat]

62. Still nothing...

Not that I'm complaining.

Looks like an eye wall trying to form but pressure is still high
and it still looks pretty ragged.

[Edweird]

67. Maybe in the future you should just post a link to the National Hurricane Center.

They are paid professionals with the best access not only to current data but also all historical and available models. The NHC is non-partisan and there is no benefit to them for dispensing anything other than the unvarnished truth and best possible educated guess. Your dire predictions, contrary to the information supplied by the NHC, reminded me of another poster here that also tries to be center of every disaster - and it's not a good thing.

[Blue_Roses]

69. What a snarky thing to say.

First of all, if the thread bothers you then simply don't read it. Secondly, I have been to NOAA and all the rest and it's nice to see a human element to the scientific data.

Good grief. Talk about control issues

[Edweird]

72. The OP's 'human element' is nothing more than fear mongering.

[Blue_Roses]

73. "Fear mongering"...

Seriously?

lol...

[backwoodsbob]

70. umm...it's going to hit N.O. head on

hope they are rerady...it will be AT LEAST a cat3

[trof]

71. Headed for Slidel now.