New poll shows Obama with a significant lead over Romney in Pennsylvania

[cali]

By Tom Infield



Ten weeks before the election, a voter poll commissioned by The Inquirer finds President Obama leading Republican rival Mitt Romney by a significant margin in Pennsylvania, raising the question of whether the Keystone State is up for grabs on Nov. 6.

The Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll, led by a bipartisan team of top political analysts, concluded that if the election were held now, Obama would win the state by nine percentage points - 51-42 - with 7 percent of voters undecided.

The telephone survey of 601 likely voters, conducted from Tuesday through Thursday, had a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The results are comparable to those of other recent polls, including one released Thursday by Muhlenberg College, which also found Obama leading by nine points in the state.

Jeffrey Plaut of Global Strategy Group, a Democratic polling firm, said the results may indicate Pennsylvania has lost some of its "swingy-ness." He said Friday that Democrats would have to fail to turn out their base voters to "put the state in play."

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http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/poll/20120824_New_poll_shows_Obama_with_a_significant_lead_over_Romney_in_Pennsylvania.html

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Pennsylvania's done for Romney

He already pulled ads.

There will be a lot of huffing and puffing in this very thread about voter suppression, and, to be sure, the Voter ID law in PA is certainly designed to suppress D votes. But PA is a blue state, as I've been saying for two cycles now. If you notice, it has hardly been mentioned as a swing state since the spring. That's because Obama is winning it handily. Ohio is following close behind now, with most recent polls showing a 6-7% advantage for Obama. The key here is that the southern corner cities in PA will go D strongly anyway, but Obama made additional inroads in the northern corners (he already won Scranton-Wilkes Barre last time) and through the middle. The dirty secret about PA is that much of the mushy middle gets along on state moneys, particularly transportation funds. If you've ever driven through Pennsylvania, you'll know that there's a construction zone on all major highways just about every 1.6 miles. The Recovery Act saved the bacon of much of central PA in this regard, and everybody damn well knows it. They also know - and this is what's happening in Ohio as well - that the Romney's of the world are the reason that the factories disappeared. Nothing testifies to the success of Obama's Summer of Bain campaign better than the fact that it took Pennsylvania out of play. That may even have been the goal.

[ananda]

4. My wishlist for PA.

1. Elect Obama.

2. Elect Dems to statewide office and repeal the voter suppression efforts.

3. End fracking now!

[Freddie]

2. Lots of PA is red

The "Alabama" part
But the blue cities and suburbs outnumber them, even with voter suppression. Many of the wealthy suburbs that were traditionally Republican for $$ reasons have gone blue in the past few decades in outrage over social issues. Chris Matthews once remarked that suburban pro-choice women were the key to keeping PA blue. I'm one of them.

[CanonRay]

3. So how is this election even close

PA has a republican legislature, and governor, and is a "swing" state.

[cali]

5. I don't know if it is or isn't.

there are so many complexities here.

[CanonRay]

6. Obama's leading with Blacks 94%-0%

and big leads with women, Hispanics, and people under 35. Are there that many white old men? I'm one of them, and I'm voting for Obama! I think we're hearing the too close to call meme from the MSM so they make more money from coverage.

[Ruby the Liberal]

7. "Likely voters" until they get to the polls on Nov 6th

and find out that their ID isn't acceptable because it contains a middle name not on the voter registration files, or that one says Robert and the other Bob, or that they are using an ID for check cashing/etc that is expired.

[starroute]

8. The board of elections claims that isn't so

Last edited Sat Aug 25, 2012, 11:38 PM - Edit history (1)

I live in Pennsylvania, and I called up my county because I couldn't find my voter registration card (got it 17 years ago and never needed to use it, so I tucked it away somewhere safe) and I wasn't sure if it had the same middle initial as my driver's license.

They told me that as long as the names were "substantially" the same, it was no problem. It's only if you have a maiden name on one and a married name on the other, or something of that sort, that there's an issue.

So let's hope they were right and there are no GOP registration-Nazis hanging around the polls on election day to gum up the works.

[Ruby the Liberal]

10. Lets hope you are right then!

750,000 people whose DOT records don't match voting records in an acceptable fashion (9%) is a little unnerving.

[gollygee]

9. I have family who switched their votes over the Voter ID law

My family is part Dem, part Rep, and my uncle said he and my aunt were going to vote Republican but were angry over people being forced to submit to what is basically a poll tax to vote in his state, and if hte Republicans were behind that, then he and my aunt decided they were voting against them.

Don't know if there are more like them.

[Ruby the Liberal]

11. In case there is any doubt,

send them this 13 second video of the PA House Speaker bragging about the intent:

"VoterID, which will allow Governor Romney to win the State of Pennsylvania - DONE"

[gollygee]

13. Oh, they saw that

and apparently were livid.

[Ruby the Liberal]

14. Most excellent.

I sent it to 2 retired relatives in PA who are/were hard core (R) and they had the same reaction - and rightfully so. I would blow a gasket if one of our Dem House leaders had this audacity. Turzai knew he was being taped and did. not. give. a damn.

[B Calm]

12. K&R