We are having a major issue with prominent Dems declining to run for the Senate in 2020

[Celerity]

Stacey Abrams in GA (leaving Ossoff as our best hope, but greatly reducing our chances to take out Perdue)

Beto and now Joaquín Castro declining to run versus Cornyn in Texas (not easy at all)

Steve Bullock (who will now run for President) declining to run versus Trump-hugger Daines (Bullock would have been the favourite or at least 50/50) in MT

Hickenlooper declining to run versus the very, very vulnerable Gardner in CO

Cindy Axne, in Iowa, who flipped a swing district last year, confirmed she was running for the House again — and not challenging Joni Ernst.

Susan Rice in Maine has declined to run versus Collins (who now is being endorsed by Joe Manchin, bleeeechh) leaving only House Speaker Sara Gideon and a former Speaker, Hannah Pingree as the only really remotely good choices (unless someone comes out of the woodwork)

In North Carolina , both the 2 biggest potential candidates have now declined to run versus Tillis, Attorney General Josh Stein and Anthony Foxx, a former U.S. Transportation Secretary and Charlotte mayor.

I think Bennet from Colorado (who is running for President now) doesn't have to resign his Senate seat (he is up for election in 2022) if he fails for POTUS and is not picked for VPOTUS

Doug Jones will probably lose his AL seat, so that leaves the Rethugs with 54 seats, meaning we need to flip 5 to guarantee control. New Hampshire is our other vulnerable seat. (far less likely to flip Rethug than Alabama though)

Those possible 5 seats will come from some combo of the following 9

AZ
CO
MT
TX
KY
IA
GA
NC
ME

IA, MT, GA, TX and KY are all going to extremely tough to flip now (KY always was)

meaning if we sweep AZ, CO, NC, and ME, we will have only 50 seats (or less if one of our Senators in a Rethug governor-led state wins the POTUS or VPOTUS.) None of those 4 are going to be easy, not even CO, where Hickenlooper would have been a heavy favourite.

GA, IA, MT, and TX chances are much less now due to the turn-downs, especially the first 3.

Schumer must be having major headaches about now.

A Rethug Senate will block (for the entire 4 years I fear) any SCOTUS nominee that a Democratic POTUS would put up (assuming that we will have to probably replace Breyer, RBG, and maybe even Sotomayor if her diabetes keeps getting even worse).

I so wish these big names would reconsider running.

[we can do it]

1. Ugh.

I really don’t understand some of the people running for president’s reasoning.

[uponit7771]

8. THIS !!!!

[Skittles]

13. because they know they can do a better job than the ones in the lead?

[mountain grammy]

23. I know, right?

Especially Bullock who could actually win in Montana. This is very frustrating.

[TeamPooka]

33. Running against Donald Trump is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a politician

[marylandblue]

2. I see your point, but I'll choose to accentuate the positive

and look at how 2018 played out. Many unknowns ran for Congress and won. Now we need some more unknown candidates to aim even higher.

Not going to be easy. But 2018 wasn't that easy either. A lot of people got involved who never were involved before.

[Celerity]

11. the 2018 Senate races had no 'unknowns' who flipped a Rethug seat

In AZ we got our number one choice, Sinema, early on. Same thing for NV, with Jacky Rosen.

Those were our only 2 flips, and the Rethugs flipped four Dem seats, FL, MO, IN, and ND.


In 2022 (MUCH BETTER on paper than 2020 due to the declines), we have shots at flipping


AZ (IF McSally wins the special in 2020, otherwise we are defending)

FL (tough as it is Rubio)

GA (Isakson is harder to beat than Perdue, but maybe Abrams finally runs, if she isnt POTUS or VPOTUS)

IN (not easy, as Young won by a wide margin and is still very young, pardon the pun, lolol)

IA (Grassley will be almost 90 and probably retires, so there is a chance)

NC (Burr is retiring, a good shot there, especially if one of the big 2 listed above runs)

MO (Blunt, hard to flip, but hell, maybe we can do it with a superb candidate)

OH (Portman, very tough to flip)

PA (Toomey, great shot there, he is such a piece of shite)

WI (the rotter Johnson is retiring, what a fucking tool, so a great shot for us)

I would say NC, PA, and WI should flip, any more would be a bonus, IA is a great shot if the dinosaur Grassley retires and Axne finally runs.

We have tough defends in Az (potentially) NH, CO, especially if Bennet retires (assuming he is not POTUS or VPOTUS) and NV but we should hold all but AZ (as we may not have it if we fail in 2020, then it could be a flip)

Hopefully come January 2023, we have a full Democratic federal government (POTUS, Senate, House) Also hopefully RBG, Breyer, and Sotomayor hold on till then.

[marylandblue]

14. Not 2018 in the Senate, in the House. Heavier lift in the Senate no matter what.

But if things go the way I think they will, 2020 will be a bigger Democratic wave than 2018, which would help a lot.

Of course, if they don't go as I hope, none of it matters anyway.

[standingtall]

3. I would not worry to much about Ky at this point

because the Governors race is this year. Plenty of time for whoever doesn't win the parties nomination to set their sites towards the Senate. I'm starting to think Rocky Adkins could be the guy to upset McConnell if he doesn't win the Governorship and if he's willing to take a shot at the Senate.

[Celerity]

12. Schumer is recruiting Amy McGrath to run against the turtle

[standingtall]

16. I like McGrath but Schumer is recruiting the wrong person

I think any of the 3 Ky candidates for Governor is capable of upsetting McConnell either Beshear,Edelen or Adkins. Btw Adkins carried his district with something like 66% of the vote in 2016 despite the fact that Trump also carried it.

[Celerity]

19. will Adkins run even if McGrath gets in?

[standingtall]

21. I don't know if he will run for it at all but Demorats

should ask him if he doesn't win the parties nomination for Governor same goes for Beshear and Edelen. My guess if Adkins decides not to run for the senate it won't be because of McGrath sense he is running against Beshear now who is a bigger name in the State, but because he simply doesn't want that office, but I hope he does.

[enough]

4. I agree. When did it happen that being a United States Senator was not enough

for a politician. Senator has for a long time been seen as a position of such great influence and power that it was the basis of a life’s work. Now it seems there’s only one job worth having: being President.

[empedocles]

7. Has there ever been a more vulnerable incumbent, or 'con opponent?

That may have something to do with Presidential runs.

[lunatica]

5. A year and a half in politics is a very, very long time.

You should revisit this a year from now if you want more accuracy.

For starters, none of the Presidential candidates want to be seen to be hedging their bets. If they claim they’ll run for the Senate why should anyone think they’re serious about the Presidency?

[Arazi]

26. Yup. Plenty of time for Beto (for ex) to drop out before Super Tuesday and run for Senate

They then go into a Senate battle with a bigger war chest and bigger name recognition.

In fact I presume many are thinking along these lines

[Funtatlaguy]

6. Yes, if we win the Presidency but not the Senate,

McConnell will make it his mission to ruin things as he vowed when Obama won.

[dsc]

9. It is always better to have the candidate we wanted

except when it isn't. In NC we didn't get our first, second, or even third choice in 2008. We got Kay Hagan who ended up winning handedly in 2008 and nearly held the seat in that awful cycle of 2014. Honestly, I think the country has become so partisan that it almost doesn't matter who we run for Senate. I think Gardner, Collins, and Tillis are in deep trouble pretty much no matter who runs against them in 2020. I also think we have a good shot at Arizona for similar reasons. Similarly I thing GA and TX are long shots no matter who runs.

[Celerity]

17. I think Abrams would have a great shot if Biden/Harris was our ticket, Perdue is less popular than

Isakson, and the POC vote would be huge, plus women swing voters. Bullock in MT was a huge loss, as I really think he would have taken out Daines. Maybe he jumps back in if his POTUS bid goes south. I agree on TX, no matter who we run versus Cornyn, as he is not the hated Cruz. NC will be interesting. In 2022 Burr is retiring, so a great shot there again. I so hope Collins goes down, I think Rice would have smashed her, but the other two woman had decent shots. Manchin is an asshole for endorsing Collins. Gardner should go down I agree, it is just Hickenlooper would have made it a near lock.

[blogslut]

15. MJ Hegar is running for TX senate

And she is awesome

https://www.mjfortexas.com/

[Celerity]

18. +1

[UniteFightBack]

40. Well now that can work. The secret ingredient is that US veteran and she was shot down too! I mean

come on now. Texas Tough..... hummin comin atchya.

[Horse with no Name]

20. We got Texas covered

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/mj-hegar-texas-senate-2020-825908/amp/

[defacto7]

22. K&R

[sarabelle]

24. We need to run some contender in every Senate race regardless to how it looks now.

We could be surprised.

[calimary]

25. Yeah, no kidding! We need bench strength at the state level!

If nothing else, we've got to get rid of Susan Collins!

[Celerity]

29. Susan Rice would have crushed her, no idea why she doesnt want to run, but I have hope for the other

two women to each be able to beat her.

The other ones that bother me the most are Axne in IA (hopefully we can find another great candidate), and especially Bullock in MT (hopefully he can still run if his POTUS bid fails) and Abrams in GA (unless she is hellbent on running for POTUS I cannot see why she would not try, unless there really is a deal for VPOTUS between her and Biden, in which case you probably will NOT see her make a run for POTUS herself).

[mountain grammy]

27. Gardner is fairly unpopular in Colorado

I don't think we need Hick to beat him.

[RandySF]

28. "Who the hell is Paul Wellstone"

A question I asked in 1990.

[lordsummerisle]

30. I haven't been following Doug Jones in AL

how is it that he's expected to lose after winning his last election?

[TwilightZone]

35. He won a very close race against Roy Moore.

Moore is an alleged sexual assaulter who is being sued by one of his accusers.

It's likely that should Jones run against someone slightly less abhorrent in very red AL that he'll probably lose.

[lordsummerisle]

37. OK thanks

I guess I was assuming Roy Moore would be running again...

[TwilightZone]

38. He probably will and would be our best shot at keeping the seat.

The Republicans know that, of course, so others are talking about running on the R side. We'd have a much better shot at Moore than a semi-normal candidate.

[JI7]

41. i still hope he can win but i see his next role as most likely serving in the next President's

administration. maybe attorney general.

[Celerity]

36. Paedo Roy Moore winning the Rethug nomination is Jones's best hope, but Jones is down

by 10% (50% to any Rethug, with 40% pro Jones) in early polls.

If the Rethugs nominate a 'normal' candidate, say the absolute asshole Mo Brooks, I fear a blowout. Sessions may run again for his old seat as well.

The 'good' news is..........


Poll: Roy Moore leads Republican field to challenge Doug Jones

A new survey suggests the former Alabama Supreme Court chief justice is currently favored by his state's GOP voters for a rematch against the Democratic senator in 2020.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/poll-roy-moore-leads-republican-field-challenge-doug-jones-n995021

Moore leads among could-be GOP candidates with 27 percent in the poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, just a year and a half after losing what was widely viewed as a safe seat for Alabama Republicans. He's trailed by three Alabama congressmen: Mo Brooks at 18 percent, Bradley Byrne at 13, and Gary Palmer at 11. The poll also suggests Moore holds a net approval rating in the state — 34 percent of voters view him favorably compared to 29 percent who view him unfavorably.

Out of the potential Republican candidates included in the poll, only Byrne has formally announced his candidacy. But Moore has suggested that he is interested in running again, and this poll could help him come to a decision. Fifty percent of registered Alabama voters say they want to replace Jones with a Republican.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. No problem! Sure Perez on case

[eleny]

32. The first Dem debate is very soon and it'll shake a few off the list of presidential hopefuls

Their names will be out there so maybe then they'll be receptive to run for the Senate.

[Jakes Progress]

34. I wonder how much it has to do with money raising.

It can't be a pleasant way to work when you have to spend a huge portion of each day on the phone hustling funds.

[brush]

39. The Senate is roadblocked by turtleman. There's no upside there until he's gone...

and we have the majority.

[Maraya1969]

42. Remember when Paul Ryan was on the ticket

With Romney and was still on the ticket for his Congressional seat, which he won after he lost the presidential race with Romney?

Why do all these people have to give up their seats in order to run in the primaries?

Or am I just not understanding how these things work.

[SoCalDem]

43. State laws determine that sort of thing.

Most states make them choose..can't run for both