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Trump's Iran-Deal Exit Delivered More Risk, No Reward
On the one-year anniversary of the Trump administration’s pullout from an international agreement freezing Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Tehran announced that it would stop complying with some terms of the deal, threatening to begin enriching uranium again in 60 days if the deal’s other signatories do not counter Washington’s sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and international trading partners. This move came after several weeks of rising tension, spreading from diplomatic meeting rooms and oil-company boardrooms into the zone of guns and warships.
The U.S. exit from the Iran deal, which was negotiated by the Obama administration with European allies and Iran, was supposed to kick off a period of intensifying pressure on Iran, with a new coalition of U.S. allies bringing Iran back to the negotiating table to create a better deal.
Although Washington’s re-intensified sanctions have dented Iran’s economy and further heightened the suffering of its citizens, the regime hasn’t come back to the table on nuclear issues or slowed down its support for terror groups and proxy fighters across the Middle East. The year has been marked by rising protests across Iranian society, but few outsiders think that the regime overthrow National Security Advisor John Bolton so explicitly wants is close. And rather than falling in line behind the U.S., European countries — even Trump’s far-right allies — have worked to develop financial mechanisms that might undercut U.S. sanctions.
Despite few signs that its strategy is working, the Trump administration has forged ahead, making increasingly drastic moves against Iran. A month ago, the administration designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist organization under U.S. law, potentially subjecting anyone who does business with the Corps — a major military and economic power within Iran and regionally — to prosecution, confiscation of assets, or exclusion from the U.S. This cuts a huge swath between the IRGC’s close ties to Iraqi, Syrian, and Lebanese political and military entities — including some that have worked closely with Washington in the past — and its economic holdings, which encompass at least one-sixth of the entire Iranian economy. Companies it controls are heavily involved in energy, construction, and other lucrative fields, affecting businesses both at home and abroad. (For instance, IRGC members may have laundered money through a hotel construction deal in Azerbaijan with … Donald and Ivanka Trump.)
The U.S. exit from the Iran deal, which was negotiated by the Obama administration with European allies and Iran, was supposed to kick off a period of intensifying pressure on Iran, with a new coalition of U.S. allies bringing Iran back to the negotiating table to create a better deal.
Although Washington’s re-intensified sanctions have dented Iran’s economy and further heightened the suffering of its citizens, the regime hasn’t come back to the table on nuclear issues or slowed down its support for terror groups and proxy fighters across the Middle East. The year has been marked by rising protests across Iranian society, but few outsiders think that the regime overthrow National Security Advisor John Bolton so explicitly wants is close. And rather than falling in line behind the U.S., European countries — even Trump’s far-right allies — have worked to develop financial mechanisms that might undercut U.S. sanctions.
Despite few signs that its strategy is working, the Trump administration has forged ahead, making increasingly drastic moves against Iran. A month ago, the administration designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist organization under U.S. law, potentially subjecting anyone who does business with the Corps — a major military and economic power within Iran and regionally — to prosecution, confiscation of assets, or exclusion from the U.S. This cuts a huge swath between the IRGC’s close ties to Iraqi, Syrian, and Lebanese political and military entities — including some that have worked closely with Washington in the past — and its economic holdings, which encompass at least one-sixth of the entire Iranian economy. Companies it controls are heavily involved in energy, construction, and other lucrative fields, affecting businesses both at home and abroad. (For instance, IRGC members may have laundered money through a hotel construction deal in Azerbaijan with … Donald and Ivanka Trump.)
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/trumps-iran-deal-exit-delivered-more-risk-no-reward.html
