Why do you think it's a guarantee that it'll change public opinion?
If they obstruct, obfuscate and project throughout the whole investigation, and then the senate turns around and acquits, it's possible the public opinion doesn't change all that much.
Just as with the Mueller probe. Trump's approval today is about the level it was a year ago.
The Nixon comparison is just not a valid one. For starters, Nixon was already in a devastatingly bad position as president even prior to the pre-impeachment hearings in the summer of 1973. On 8/6/1973, months before they'd even take up impeachment, only 31% of the country approved of Nixon. Currently, Trump is at an average approval of 42% - over ten-percent higher than Nixon was. What this tells us is that, even before impeachment hearings began, Nixon had lost a considerable amount of support from the American people (he started the year, his second term in office, with only 25% disapproval). There's been no collapse of support from Trump - he's stayed relatively at the total of approval as he was a year ago. And in fact, his approval is actually higher today than at this point two years ago, as, on 5/22/2017, he had an approval rating of 40%. Trump's approval would get progressively worse throughout 2017 but has rebounded, to a point, or at least, stopped its decline Which, again, ties back around to the point i made initially: the Mueller Report didn't ding him in approval - don't 100% expect impeachment to, as well.
Beyond that, what really set things in motion for Nixon's impeachment was the Saturday Night Massacre, which was a direct result of the Attorney General, Elliot Richardson, to fire Archibald Cox. Richardson refused the presidential orders and resigned - as did Deputy Attorney General Ruckelshaus. We've already seen from William Barr that he's a Trump lacky, who'll do ANYTHING Trump wants of him - so, it's unlikely he'd refuse a Trump order and set in motion the type of reaction we saw out of the Saturday Night Massacre.
That happened on Oct. 20th. Nixon's approval still sat at roughly 30%. It dipped 27% in the wake of the Massacre.
Nixon's approval never really changed much over the next year - he sat roughly around 24-30% support. Nixon's final approval rating was 24% when he resigned on 8/5/1974 - a change of 7 points from where he was on 8/5/73 - right before the Watergate investigation really took off.
That's the thing that should be worrying liberals right now when comparing this to Nixon. Public opinion had already cemented around Nixon. He was far more toxic, months before impeachment hearings even began, then Trump is currently.
Trump's approval isn't great but it's nowhere near Nixon bad. Granted, if impeachment hearings net Trump a seven-point decrease in his polling between now and election day, 2020, it'll be devastating because that would put him at only 35% support - but I'm not sure that's worth the risk of impeachment potentially solidifying his support even more. The fact Trump's numbers have hardly budged, whereas Nixon's plummeted even before impeachment, tells me his absolute floor right now is 40%. If impeachment does not change that, it's a risk that may backfire - especially if the senate does everything in their power to exonerate him and not one Republican senator crosses over the lines to vote for removal.
What did Nixon in was Republicans turning against him - not Democrats holding hearings.
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