538: Trump's Approval is Going Nowhere

[crazytown]

Trump's approval has changed little from Feb 1, 2018, or the Midterms (44% exit polls)
Approval dipped during the Government Shutdown, but otherwise has remained remarkably steady.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-approval-rating-is-incredibly-steady-is-that-weird-or-the-new-normal/

[Dennis Donovan]

1. 4 out of 10 Americans approve of him...

...let that sink in for a moment.

[UniteFightBack]

3. We will get that a little lower before this is all said and done. nt

[crazytown]

4. I'm a 50 something white guy

It's 6 out of 10 with 'us'. I look around when I'm in a store. How many of them would stand around smiling while ICE dragged out college student? This is a foreign country.

[Downtown Hound]

7. I'm with you, I don't look at my fellow white men the same way anymore

I just look around at them, and I see hatred, fear, aggression, and ignorance. I guess now I at least have a slight idea of what minorities see when they look at us. Pretty eye opening.

[crazytown]

10. A few days after Christmas 2008

my wife and I were in a store looking at dolls (she collects them). She pulled out an AA wedding doll and said 'He looks like the President'. I got that feeling that someone was watching us. I looked around and saw a big middle aged black woman looking back with a smile that lit up the whole store.

There are still people of goodwill on both side. I'm not giving up.

[Hortensis]

34. This. We're still the nation who elected a black president --

twice and by large margins.

Some of us failed in 2016, but the consequences have been dreadful and, the midterms suggest, awakening.

[Cosmocat]

45. It is not just white men

It is white, including women.

[Downtown Hound]

48. True, but less women than men. n/t

[Cosmocat]

51. Marginally

White women voted:

76% Kemp - gee, wonder why?
59% Cruz - yeah, Ted Cruz
51% DeSantis - yeah, this screwnut

53% of white women voted for 45.

With a white woman as his opponent.

Yes, white men are the primary supporter of republican fuckwittery, but to repeatedly go at them is to excuse/ignore/let off white women, who are very much their willing accomplices.

Its a white people thing more accurately.

[Downtown Hound]

55. Not denying that there's a problem with many white women having their heads up their butts

But it probably wasn't that high.

http://time.com/5422644/trump-white-women-2016/

[MyOwnPeace]

63. I just can't understand...........

how ONE SINGLE WOMAN of whatever color could vote for IQ45!

[Cosmocat]

72. I know MANY

Most often church going types.

[Funtatlaguy]

79. Because their preachers tell them that Dems are baby killers.

Many are single issue abortion voters.

[LovingA2andMI]

57. Honestly, you don't want to really know....

I guess now I at least have a slight idea of what minorities see when they look at us.

[ooky]

5. The drip drip effect we have going now should help get that down some.

[empedocles]

11. Drops are getting more frequent

[ooky]

14. True. More like an open faucet.

[UniteFightBack]

2. This is the high water mark. He will sink further down.....I'm going to guarantee that. nt

[emmaverybo]

8. I believe this too. Just have to. More will be revealed. nt

[CrispyQ]

6. A little dated, but worth the read.

Trial runs for fascism are in full flow
Babies in cages were no ‘mistake’ by Trump but test-marketing for barbarism
Tue, Jun 26, 2018, 05:00

Fintan O'Toole

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-trial-runs-for-fascism-are-in-full-flow-1.3543375

snip...

Fascism doesn't arise suddenly in an existing democracy. It is not easy to get people to give up their ideas of freedom and civility. You have to do trial runs that, if they are done well, serve two purposes. They get people used to something they may initially recoil from; and they allow you to refine and calibrate. This is what is happening now and we would be fools not to see it.

One of the basic tools of fascism is the rigging of elections – we've seen that trialled in the election of Trump, in the Brexit referendum and (less successfully) in the French presidential elections. Another is the generation of tribal identities, the division of society into mutually exclusive polarities. Fascism does not need a majority – it typically comes to power with about 40 per cent support and then uses control and intimidation to consolidate that power. So it doesn't matter if most people hate you, as long as your 40 per cent is fanatically committed. That’s been tested out too. And fascism of course needs a propaganda machine so effective that it creates for its followers a universe of “alternative facts” impervious to unwanted realities. Again, the testing for this is very far advanced.

He's hovered at 40% his entire term.

[emmaverybo]

9. Scary. Happening in Europe too. nt

[empedocles]

15. Of the 40% trump support, I suspect the trump strong support is much less than that.

Guessing the 20%-40?% range is made up of habitual con votes, anti socialist, anti tax people, anti now disappointed in trump votes, etc.

Of the core 20% are the various hate groups,, some not particularly fond of trump

Still, putin, mcconnell and trump are still significant threats.

[lunasun]

23. This is a very good read. Thanks for posting the link . History shows 40% was all that was needed

Fox News mouthpieces outdid themselves in barbaric crassness: making animal noises at the mention of a Down syndrome child, describing crying children as actors

This is greatly encouraging for the pre-fascist agenda. The blooding process has begun within the democratic world. The muscles that the propaganda machines need for defending the indefensible are being toned up.
Millions and millions of Europeans and Americans are learning to think the unthinkable. So what if those black people drown in the sea? So what if those brown toddlers are scarred for life?
They have already, in their minds, crossed the boundaries of morality. They are, like Macbeth, “yet but young in deed”. But the tests will be refined, the results analysed, the methods perfected, the messages sharpened.
And then the deeds can follow

[dalton99a]

33. +1

[John Fante]

37. Rubbish. If Trump doesn't improve on the 46% (of the vote)

he got in 2016, he isn't winning re-election. 40% would send Trump to a landslide loss.

[moonscape]

46. In an honest election. n/t

[John Fante]

56. It will be honest enough that the Democrats will win if we show up.

Conspiracy theories are not helpful. They breed despondency.

[bearsfootball516]

62. There will be a lot of voters who don't approve of Trump but still vote for him.

Not saying he'll beat 46 percent of the vote, but he'll get more than 40 percent.

[Wellstone ruled]

12. The Media is doing everything possible to

keep the Numbers above the real 22% that will always support this Criminal. Corporate Media will never let the true message stay more than a few minutes during any given day.

[Dave Starsky]

47. Russian trolls and bots are hard at work, too.

Amplifying and disseminating the work of the REAL crazies, making it look like their diseased ideas are more popular and accepted then they really are.

He's getting all the help he can get from wherever he can get it.

[scarytomcat]

67. Is anyone on facebook getting the truth out.

I don't go there but millions do and they need facts like THE video is doctored, rethugs are all in for facsism, coruption, and war. They don't think twice about lyinfg, cheaying, and stealing.

[customerserviceguy]

13. These polls miss the point entirely

It doesn't matter what someone willing to hang on to the phone for a poll tells someone, it matters what decision they make in the voting booth. I don't remember Trump's approval or popularity being strong at any time before the election, and we see how that went.

I suspect there are a number of reasons for the disconnect between the polling and the election. First, I don't think pollsters do a good job figuring out the rural vote. Maybe they happen to hit someone living in the heart of a small town, who needs to be close to shopping, doctors, etc, because they can't operate or afford to operate a motor vehicle. Such people would tend to be more progressive, but they don't represent the people around them.

Second, I think that a lot of Trump voters are not necessarily happy with the stupid things he says and does, but when faced with the choice at the ballot, they decide he's the lesser of two evils.

Third, I think some Trumpsters out there just lie their asses off rather than provoke some sort of reaction from someone calling them for a poll.

[Poiuyt]

16. Fourth: Some people will vote for a Republican no matter what

Not everyone follows politics as closely as we do.

[customerserviceguy]

17. True

The Democratic Party has been thoroughly demonized in the minds of many people.

[USALiberal]

64. I would vote for any dem over any goper. Even if I thought he/she was terrible. nt

[uponit7771]

18. It wasn't it was third parties and Democratic undercount that won the election for Trump

[customerserviceguy]

22. Can you agree with me

that the vote that Trump got was way more than you expected the day before the election? I figured he'd only get about 35-40% of the vote nationwide.

The polls were disconnected from the reality, and they may still be, due to factors that are beyond their control. But, they could improve their techniques, in my opinion.

[uponit7771]

36. I thought he'd get the votes rMoney did, he did worse

[customerserviceguy]

50. I was surprised

that he got as much as he did. Romney is a much more principled individual.

I guess the difference was the evangelical vote. IN 2012, they hated giving the Mormon missionaries another talking point, and in 2016 they were probably hoping that Trump would die/quit/be removed by impeachment, and then they'd have Pence, who they were really excited about. There's no other way that a fundie would become president, they saw how things went for Hucksterbee.

Being as Trump has given them two SCOTUS justices that they like, they'll probably turn out for him again next year. The strategy then will be to support Trump until he has served two years of his second term, then Pence takes over, and can be elected twice himself.

[John Fante]

38. Trump will likely get 46% of the vote like he did last time.

That's what McCain got in 2008, and slightly less than Romney's haul in 2012. The question is - will it be enough to win the election? The answer is - not likely.

[customerserviceguy]

49. It depends on how the votes are spread

If our candidate piles up votes in strongly blue states, then there is a chance that Trump will eke out EC votes from swing states, like he did last time.

I'm fully aware that he knows that a lot of his voters in blue and purple states didn't turn out for him because they thought that Hillary had it in the bag. He'll make sure they turn out for the next one, because they want Trump to win in the popular vote.

[John Fante]

52. Why do posters insist that Trump is more popular than he's shown?

He got 46% of the vote. Same as McCain, slightly less than Romney. There isn't a secret horde of Trump voters out there just waiting to hand him more blue states. If there was, they would have made sure Republicans retained the house in 2018.

It was Hillary who underperformed, not Trump.

[customerserviceguy]

54. I think a lot of people lie to pollsters

Or, they are too embarrassed to admit to a pollster that they'd vote for him again.

And Trump doesn't need more blue states, all he has to do is get most of the ones he got last time.

[John Fante]

59. Those voters won't be enough to win again.

Trump has to expand his base if he wants to retain the states he narrowly won, and there's no evidence that he's pulling that off right now. The electorate will be bigger in 2020, and the Democratic nominee isn't likely to stall out at 48%.

If anything, the evidence suggests that Trump's base has shrunk a bit. It happened to Obama in 2012, but his popularity was strong enough that he won re-election anyway. Trump doesn't have that luxury. When I say he will get 46% of the vote, I'm being generous to him.
I'm actually including those embarrassed voters in the total.

[moonscape]

71. Or, the opposite could play out with

some of his softer-support voters. While they secretly voted for him in ‘16, now after defending him they have grown fatigued of the drama and might secretly vote against him just to make it stop.

Perhaps wishful thinking of an exhausted lefty ...

[scarytomcat]

68. The rethugs will win because we haven't fix the election problems

The states he stole by small margins will be flipped again. Say goodbye to Democracy.

[John Fante]

69. Yawn.

Take your voter depressing conspiracy theories elsewhere.

[scarytomcat]

70. I think we should fix the problems

Take a nap if your tired. But wishing dump was gone won't do. Our country is done for if the rethugs win anything. Sorry if you don't want the facts.

[MarvinGardens]

78. This sort of defeatism gets us nowhere.

[LovingA2andMI]

58. Both of these are true.....

Which is why polling will not matter. It is about action and if no action is taken with Trump and his antics, we can lean towards a repeat of the 2016 election (regardless if folks think it could not happen, twice over)....

Second, I think that a lot of Trump voters are not necessarily happy with the stupid things he says and does, but when faced with the choice at the ballot, they decide he's the lesser of two evils.

Third, I think some Trumpsters out there just lie their asses off rather than provoke some sort of reaction from someone calling them for a poll.

[customerserviceguy]

61. Yep

Polls hurt us in 2016. I'm sure there were a lot of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein votes that came from otherwise progressive people who said to themselves, "Well, she's going to win, but she sure doesn't get my vote as part of it."

[davekriss]

65. IIRC, the gap between Clinton and Trump fell to 3% on the eve of the election thanks to Comey

[customerserviceguy]

66. It might or might not

have been because of Comey. Sometimes, the "lesser of two evils" candidate picks up support in the last days leading up to an election. It's painful to admit that you're voting for someone who is damned imperfect, even to yourself.

I had a GOP'er acquaintance who told me that in 2012, he voted for Romney in the NY primary, but he had to have a couple of beers first!

[lunasun]

19. At 42% approval for trump this is nothing for Americans to be proud of

[aikoaiko]

20. What is the relationship between approval numbers and elections for Presidents?

I'm not sure in these hyper-partisan times that approval numbers matter all that much.

[crazytown]

21. No president with less than 50% approval has been reelected

Trump has not had 50% at any time in his term.

[aikoaiko]

24. Do you know about the first elections of presidents?

I think Trump was under 50% approval -- certainly less than HRC, but still won.

I suppose there can be a disconnect because of the electoral college.

[crazytown]

25. No actually, HRC had more favorables than Trump

41.8 vs 37.5%
And won the plurality of votes 48.2 vs 46.1%

[aikoaiko]

26. That's what I mean. Trump had more unfav and less fav ratings than HRC, but he still won.

Largely due to the structure of the electoral college and hyper-partisanship.

[crazytown]

27. My avatar is a paper clip

I suspect there was a little more than partisanship going on. Manafort gave voting data to the Russians.

[John Fante]

39. Trump won the electoral college. He did not recieve more votes

than Hillary. So there is a correlation.

[uponit7771]

73. With the help of the Russians, it was not a clean win and introduces noise.

[Hoyt]

28. Some who"disapprove," will still vote for him, especially if they disapprove because

he hasn’t deported millions of immigrants, bombed Iran and N Korea, repealed Obamacare, run off BLM, etc. Let’s not kid ourselves.

[crazytown]

29. National poll: 54% will 'definitely not' vote for Trump

https://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics_clone_15565_20181113234231/article/National-poll-54-percent-will-definitely-not-13873998.php

[Hoyt]

30. Yeah, that article says only 76% of GOPers will vote for him. Do you believe that?

Would be nice, but when it comes down to it, even the Ann Coulters— who bash trump relentlessly— will pull the Racist-in-Chief’s lever.

[crazytown]

31. I am not sure

What the poll says is 10% will not vote for Trump, and a further 14% are considering it. AFAIK, come the GE and some tender loving hate from TPTB, they fall in line.

Nevertheless , there are some real NeverTumpers out there.

[Hoyt]

32. Truly hope I'm wrong, but I'm not taking anything for granted now or in 2020.

[John Fante]

40. Why are you so incredulous? 54% of voters didn't vote

for Trump the first time.

[Hoyt]

41. And he won. The implication is that he won't win in 2020.

[John Fante]

42. And you implied that 54% is not a believable number.

But it is. It already happened once.

Trump won the electoral college with 46% of the vote. Normally that percentage would signal defeat (ask Romney and McCain). He won in a fluke manner. Trump would need every bit of the good fortune he got in 2016 (Comey letter, the email investigation, wikileaks, voter apathy on our side, etc) to pull that off again. It's not likely to happen.

[Hoyt]

43. I'm not claiming victory until our candidate takes the oath. Comey, etc., including

supposed Democrats who voted directly or indirectly for trump, were the cause. That can happen again.

The early victory dance is sort of “voter apathy,” or certainly contributes to it.

[Horizens]

35. 2 Points

1.) That doesn't mean that all 54% will go to the polls and vote.

2.) Trump's 40+ % will get out and vote.

There's much work to be done re GOTV.

[uponit7771]

77. +1, Red Don can no doubt count on doing slightly better than rMoney this time but only with Russia's

... deep and concentrated help.

Red Don did worse than rMoney in 2016, it was democrats going to 3rd parties and under performing votes overall in heavy VSM red states.

Red Don will need Russia's help this time too

[uponit7771]

74. True, it's the "never Trumpers" who don't like HOW Red Don is saying what they like but doing what

... the like as much as possible.

It's those people who I think a long drawn out investigation will turn ... maybe.

[DeminPennswoods]

44. Look at strongly approve vs strongly disapprove numbers instead

"Approval" or "favorable" is the sum of "strongly approve" + "somewhat approve". It's the same with "disapprove" and "unfavorable".

The "strongly" categories are where the voter intensity lies. In the poll breakouts, I've seen, "strongly approve" is only about 1/2 of the "strongly disapprove" number and "strongly disapprove" be the bulk of "disapprove" responses.

[uponit7771]

75. +1, I think that was part of the 2018 turnout

[Turin_C3PO]

53. If we were

a sane, educated country, his approval wouldn’t even be 15%. It speaks volumes about the electorate in this nation, none of it good.

[LovingA2andMI]

60. This....

Is Oh So True....

[uponit7771]

76. +1, you're correct but FAUX News and winger world propaganda give Red Don a 15 - 25% bump in

... polling with their cult like "reality is wrong" coverage.

My understand is Murdoch started FAUX News because of Nixon's down fall and the news agencies not willing to give Nixon positive coverage.

[Funtatlaguy]

80. Fox News and Talk Radio were created to dumb us all down.

[Doodley]

81. His lies win, and his approval numbers show a failure of communication from the side of truth.