European Parliament Elections thread jamboree

Center-right narrowly leads in EU vote: estimate (Reuters)



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-result-estimate/center-right-narrowly-leads-in-eu-vote-estimate-idUSKCN1SW0SW

and for the world.

Broadbased progressive parties. Here in Ireland, during the economic crisis, the Green Party kept the criminally corrupt Fianna Fail in power, in return for the Environment ministry and a few other trinkets. Subsequently they got wiped out in parliament, but unfortunately the public's memory is short....even Fianna Fail are making a comeback.

Nothing like Ralph Nader or Jill Stein. The Greens here are more like Jay Inslee.

Since hes my Governor.

But I've spoken to him on the phone for almost half an hour. He seems like a really good guy, knows where he's at, and what he wants to do. Not a bunch of tired slogans with no plan behind them, like so many others. You could do MUCH worse (look at Texas, for example!).

Marine Le Pen scares the bejesus out of me. She may be even worse than drumpf, if that's possible.

Scary stuff....we need the US to get a Dem president for the fightback to begin.

The entire world is embracing fascism.

Otherwise, they didn't break out of any expected brackets.

positives tonight, isn't there ?

The German SPD deservedly got their asses handed to them (same tired old slogans that sent Martin Schulz packing 2 years ago), but their Spanish counterparts had a respectable showing.

Europe is fracturing, just like the Weimarer Republik did before Hitler's NSDAP "won" in 1933 (and check out with how much of the vote!). The vision of DeGaulle and Adenauer of uniting France and Germany, and integrating to the point where another war between France and Germany would be impossible is not dead, by any means, but the forces of disunity and nationalistic extremism are creeping back nonetheless.

It's really insane because today's European youth is completely on board with the notion of a united, borderless Europe. Go to any large gathering or main city square in Europe this summer, and you will find college students of 25 different nationalities, hanging out together as if they were all from the same place--and as far as they are concerned, they are. It's the fuck-ups here that go into politics. Voices of common sense get shouted down as if they were Democrats at a Fox Noise interview. It took a so-called "conservative" i.e. Angela Merkel, to have the courage to say no more nuclear power or coal burning in Germany. What did she get for her efforts? She got called "old and used up" by even the most liberal press here.

Of leadership and no one of stature looking to step up. If that leadership doesn't appear in the US in Jan 2021, I am fearful of the future.

Where Germany, due to their 20th century past, does not seek a dynamic charismatic leader, the USA does. Merkel's quite, competent stability was just what the doctor ordered for Germany, and indeed it is the envy of Europe at this point.

If Biden becomes the nominee, his VP pick will be crucial.

especially in France and the UK. Who's the favourite to replace her, and what are they like ?

I'm surprised how well Joe is holding up, it will be interesting to see how these debates go. The one positive is how many Democrats polled, want to coalesce around a candidate, I just hope the debates don't become nasty breaking that unity.

I agree about the VP pick, and though I'm not a betting man, if she continues to be strong my money would be on Harris.

Her successor as party head, Annette Kramp-Karrenbauer, is an obvious choice, but far from a definite one. First the next federal elections have to take place, and they are not scheduled for two years. The last ones almost ended in a mess, and even the coalition that did result was unsatisfactory. What should have happened was a coalition between Merkel's CDU, the Greens and the FDP, who is a pro-business party that calls themselves "the Liberals." Like with the Greens, no similarity in terms with the USA.

The head of the FDP, who acts very much like he is in the pocket of the fossil fuel industry (coal, oil) torpedoed that coalition, and said he could never work with the Greens. Merkel was forced back into bed with the Social Democrats, who have nothing more to offer than tired old 20 year old slogans, and are in desperate need of rejuvenation. Unfortunately, the head of their youth division gave a fiery speech that could have come from Erich Honecker, himself, and sank the party's prospects for a rosy future in one blow.

One thing is for sure, if the elections were held today, Merkel would have no option but to coalesce with the Greens. But she has led her "conservatives (more socially liberal than half our Democrats, so don't get confused there, either)" slowly leftward, and the Greens have become slowly more pragmatic, so it makes sense. As of now, they don't have 50% between them, which means they would need a third coalition partner, and no one knows who that could be. Not "the Left" or the Afd, who are extremists on both ends of the spectrum, and not the FDP as long as they are led by the suspicious fossil fuel champion (if he is replaced, things get a LOT easier). One bright spot--last year, when Merkel stepped down as party leader, her party had three contenders to replace her. One hard-right (by their standards, not ours), one strong right, and the only woman, and she, the most moderate, won. VERY encouraging.

As for US, Biden is holding up well for now, but 18 months is an eternity in US politics, and anything could happen. Harris is one viable pick, though just one out of many. Far from my favorite, that's for sure. If Biden survives the gauntlet and picks up the nomination, I think Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Inslee have equal chances of being picked, and they don't have the baggage of Harris' ruthless prosecutions when she had that position. Biden could also go outside the circle of other candidates and pick someone completely off that radar, like Howard Dean or Joe Kennedy III. Who knows, maybe even Norm Ornstein or Al Franken? There is a lot of talent to choose from. I reject the notion that the ticket MUST include mixed gender and race just as I reject the notion that it must not. Get a ticket that inspires, and it will get people to the polls in droves. Their pigmentation or chromasomes are matters I don't care about.

One thing I see as a given--whoever our nominee picks as VP, the choice will not be universally popular. However, as long as it is someone who brings some true appeal to the table, and has a good heart (indeed, like Biden himself did in 2008), I'm happy.

With those federal elections in 2 years, it at least gives a little space for moderate politics to make a comeback. Hopefully anyway.

100% agree with your wish that the VP selection is an inspiring choice. If Joe is the nominee, I think it will narrow the field of VP candidates to those under 60 at least.

Howard will be 71 this November (I can hardly believe it, but the calendar doesn't lie), and Jay Inslee is a VERY young 68. Howard and Jay have very youthful and dynamic voices and are quick on their feet. So, I wouldn't count them out just on their age. On the other hand, if the nominee goes for youth (Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Kennedy, e.g.), I can't fault THAT logic, either. That would depend somewhat on the age of the eventual nominee of course. If we nominate someone under 70, the choice of VP might be made from a different pool of possibles from what the pool might be if the nominee is over 70.

debate !

I agree, this is entirely dependant on who the nominee is, and then the age makeup would change.

Also 60 is the new 39 !

A couple of years ago, we rode from Washington to New York City together on the train, and he had just gotten in from London, had something to do in DC and then that evening in New York. Along the way, he said he was seriously jet lagged and needed to sleep. I said, sure, go ahead. He napped for all of five minutes, and then was completely recharged. If that had been me, I would have dozed off before the train got halfway to Baltimore, and probably wouldn't have woken up again until New Haven, an hour past where I wanted to get off!

See more detail here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/eu-election-results-2019-across-europe

The 40-year grip of the two main centrist political groups on the levers of power in Brussels looked set to be broken as voters in the European elections turned out in record numbers to bolster radical alternatives including the Greens and the far right.

A populist Eurosceptic surge failed to emerge on Sunday but they were on track to be returned to the European parliament in larger numbers than ever before, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally celebrating a narrow symbolic victory over Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche in France.


EU election results 2019: across Europe
Read more
There were also signs of major success for the Greens, with the party jumping from 50 MEPs in 2014 to as many as 71 across Europe, almost doubling their result in Germany from the previous election to leapfrog the Social Democratic party (SPD) into second place with 22%, the exit polls suggested.

As votes for the centre parties fall away, the results trigger a starting gun on what will be tortuous negotiations over the key jobs in the EU institutions, including Jean-Claude Juncker’s replacement as European commission president.

The makeup of the parliament will be used by the 28 heads of state and government to guide their choice of replacement for Juncker and his counterpart in the European council, Donald Tusk.

SNIP

The estimated results based on exit polls leave the centre-right European People’s party as the largest in the parliament, but down from 221 seats to 173.

The Socialists and Democrats group also appeared set to drop from 191 seats to 147, leaving the two main groups looking likely to need help from Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) with about 102 seats, bolstered by Macron’s En Marche, and the Greens to form a stable majority.

The European of Nations and Freedom group, which combines populist and far-right parties in countries including France and Italy, looked set to secure 57 seats, up 20 from five years ago.

Italy’s far-right League, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, is vying with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party as to which will be the biggest single party in the parliament, after polls suggested it would secure 27-31%, increasing its seats from 5 to 25.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/26/european-elections-centrist-parties-projected-lose-grip-power

Not good

Brexit Party storms to victory in EU elections, Nigel Farage delivered a massive "wake-up call" to the Tories and Labour as he led the Brexit Party to a historic win in the European elections.

Hungary’s far-right nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban has scored a huge win

France: Marine Le Pen’s right wing party Rassemblement National (National Rally) (RN) becomes biggest party in France with 24% of votes amid historic high voter turnout

Italy's far-right League come out on top in EU election

Belgium: far-right surge in national parliament elections

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/may/26/european-elections-2019-results-eu-election-parliament-brexit-party-farage-tories-may-live

"Many noting that the combined vote share of the three strong (English) Remain parties – the Lib Dems, the Greens and Change UK – it’s more than the 32 per cent the Brexit Party has taken. It’s a point Green co-leader Sian Berry has made on the BBC."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/european-elections-results-live-updates-conservative-latest-brexit-party-eu-farage-ukip-tommy-a8931156.html

Add in Scottish, Welsh results even more so.

The Fascists will still only have 20-25%, and there is general agreement that the other groups won't touch them.

20-25% mark, but the Centre Right-Centre Left have lost their majority and will now have to horse trade with the Greens and/or the Liberals. Plus it appears the original candidate from the Centre Right for Commission President, did badly in his home patch, so now it is possible for Michel Barnier (who did so well for the EU in the Brexit negotiations), to win that vote.

It could have been a LOT worse !

puts a damper on their chances of doing so.

PHEW!

Watching coverage on some EU TV stations, whenever they show polling places I only see paper ballots. Nothing about voting machines or foreign hacking.



Looks to me like migration and climate change are driving far right and greens; could be long-term issues. More radical right probably not a good sign for future "compromise," although if nothing gets done their support could fade.

went on in the US, I think that won't change either.

Although their software is not perfect here, and they don't take their weaknesses seriously enough.

Case in point, although this was 30 years ago: my wife went to vote one time, and was refused. She asked why, and was told that she lived in Munich (at the other end of Germany) and had to vote there. She has never lived in Munich in her life, and said their information was in error. They snottily said their computer showed that she lived in Munich, and therefore, she lived in Munich. A social worker by profession, my wife then then told hem to look up our daughters (aged 5 and 3 at the time), and asked where they lived. Sure enough, the girls lived right here at home. My wife said the election official should immediately call the police and have her arrested for child abandonment, or she would call them and have the election official cited for having made the false accusation publicly--or they could let her vote. There is NOTHING a bureaucrat fears more than being publicly shown up to be in error, so they let her vote. But they never did manage to erase her fictitious residence in Munich (she was subsequently "moved" up here where she had always been).

government of the time, (under that crook Bertie Ahern) decided we were to have voting machines. They paid a fortune for them, buying from a Dutch company who wouldn't release the software for public scrutiny, AND there was no paper trail ! They were stored in a warehouse for years (at enormous cost) before being scrapped. We have a great system of tallymen here, and people have confidence in the counting system.