General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNew Poll: Massive Blue Wave Likely in 2020
2018 saw the largest margin of victory in an off-year congressional election in U.S. history --- 10 million votes in favor of the Democrats (who picked up 40 net seats in the House).
A new poll from the Economist/YouGov indicates that there could be a similar margin of victory for Democrats in House elections in 2020 (9 percentage points).
This is bad news for Donald Trump and his reelection chances -- and good news for us!
Link to tweet
Renew Deal
(81,801 posts)Vidal
(642 posts)Most people are expecting a Blue Wave and a Democrat to win the presidency. Let's make it happen!
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)people who are worried that we won't have turnout if we don't impeach or that if this candidate or that candidate isn't the nominee aren't severely underestimating the burning passion to get rid of this...thing in the WH.
Vidal
(642 posts)I agree with you. That's a good way to put it. He is more hated than many people realize.
shanny
(6,709 posts)and other similar BS we have to win by about 7 points to actually "win."
You are right in concept, for sure, but I think the actual number is 3 to 4 percent. Also, some states have redrawn their congressional districts which may help a little.
Another big problem is Democrats are too concentrated geographically. This is why it will be hard to win back the Senate, which we really need to do.
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,468 posts)With the facts that the US Senate as is, is dysfunctional under Republican control.
Democratic candidates need to focus on important issues such as...Health Care, $15 an hour Minimum Wage, NO more wars, Infrastructure, Affordable Education, and so much more. Talk to the people, not over them. Ask them what is it they want Government to do.
calguy
(5,222 posts)With farming taking big hits thanks to trump's tarriffs, that should be a very winnable state for us.
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,468 posts)She supports Trump hard core. Which will not go over well with Farmers.
Few farmers get subsidies for growing corn for Ethanol, but more are going under due to closed Markets. With Trump going after Mexico with tariffs, that is going to drive prices up for other produce we get from there, as well as Cars, appliance parts, etc.
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)is when the prices start going up for parts on farm equipment.
Vidal
(642 posts)As costs of raising crops go up, and prices from crops go down, many farmers will be losing money, so let's hope this translates into big gains for Democrats in rural areas in 2020.
Chin music
(23,001 posts)Corns supposed to be knee high by 4th of July, and I believe 2/3rds of farmers haven't even stuck seed in the ground this year. Relying on bail-out and crop insurance I guess. There will be no market to speak of.
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,468 posts)The farm fields look barren. I did not see any sprouting of corn or soybeans at all.
Democratic Party candidates for the US Senate from Farm states need to drive this issue home that Trump is killing farmers, but wants their votes.
Farmers want Open markets, not tax payer handouts they are paying for.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)Didn't they have a bigger lead among white voters in the last election? And an ever bigger lead in the 2016 election?
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)they are well and truly fucked.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)I also don't know that it holds.
Thats what we have to beat. It was an electoral bloodbath for the Repukes.d
LakeArenal
(28,713 posts)Repulsives better hope that new Ark Experience floats.
FBaggins
(26,693 posts)Most people measure waves by the number of seats that are picked up.
Oversimplifying a bit, if we win by the same margin as last time we will get roughly the same results and neither pick up or lose any seats.
Thats reasonably consistent with current expert expectations that we would lose about half a dozen seats in the House.
Vidal
(642 posts)we will probably pick up a few more seats, nowhere near 40
There were more low hanging fruit in the last election meaning republican house members losing their seats in districts leaning Democratic. Add to that the massive amount of retirements. The numbers will not be there this time around. If we could pick up 10-15 house seats it would be an awesome evening for the Democrats.
Maxheader
(4,366 posts)Dems need to have a message..something to get people riled and thinking about how we're getting screwed over...new tax laws...wingers trying to take away healthcare...iran..wall..trade war...
Lots of targets..Lets go libs...
Vidal
(642 posts)two big winning issues for Dems
Celerity
(42,631 posts)which is Rethug +7. Also older baby boomers and up in age are Rethug +22.
If that also holds for Rump, then arffffff.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)The polls said that Clinton was going to win, although it would be close. Russia wasn't factored into those polls.
erronis
(14,941 posts)I'm sure USSRussia, Israel, MBS/SA, etc. would be happy to answer this question:
- TRUMP [__]
- PENCE [__]
- other []
Check here [X] if you'd like an automatic contribution to be made to your favorite (R)epuglicons.
Of course we'd need to factor in money/influence/blackmail coming from other in-country and foreign interests.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Vidal
(642 posts)nt
Scarsdale
(9,426 posts)need to do something about election fraud, voter suppression. Paper ballots should be put back in place. The gop has perfected their dirty tricks too often. The way McConnell is acting, I think the fix is already in for the next election. He just keeps on doing his dirty work, regardless of what anyone thinks. He flatly refuses to even hold a vote on voter fraud, and foreign interference in US elections. SOMETHING is just not right here.
SWBTATTReg
(21,856 posts)to cheating and lying and on election interference on the part of other countries in order to win. The best laid plans of men and mice do oftentimes go astray, and I predict that those efforts in Nov. 2016 to get rump to win illegally have backfired big time, e.g., Nov. 2018 and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future (w/ the upcoming Nov 2020 election coming up especially).
Vidal
(642 posts)it was in 2018 and there's no reason to think it will go down in 2020, and this is bad news for Trump and Rethugs.
Vinca
(50,168 posts)I wish some of the multitude running for POTUS would consider Senate bids instead. If McConnell remains in charge (assuming a miracle doesn't happen and he's ousted by voters), it will do us little good having the presidency because he'll block everything.
dameatball
(7,380 posts)too late. I don't know how Presidential campaigns transition to Senatorial campaigns, but at least a core staff should be available.
TeamPooka
(24,155 posts)Vidal
(642 posts)about what Trump and Rethugs are doing, so it should be another Blue Wave
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Democrats have no excitement, enthusiasm, wherein the Republicans are gun ho.
Glad to see otherwise!
Where did you read that? I haven't seen it.
We do have to be careful of our information sources.
The media is making up stories to make it seem competitive.
Wounded Bear
(58,436 posts)Vidal
(642 posts)they are very concerned about maintaining their majority after the 2020 elections, and they are doing everything they can to make sure this happens.