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Vidal

(642 posts)
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 10:53 AM Jun 2019

New Poll: Massive Blue Wave Likely in 2020

2018 saw the largest margin of victory in an off-year congressional election in U.S. history --- 10 million votes in favor of the Democrats (who picked up 40 net seats in the House).

A new poll from the Economist/YouGov indicates that there could be a similar margin of victory for Democrats in House elections in 2020 (9 percentage points).

This is bad news for Donald Trump and his reelection chances -- and good news for us!


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New Poll: Massive Blue Wave Likely in 2020 (Original Post) Vidal Jun 2019 OP
This is probably why there are 20+ candidates Renew Deal Jun 2019 #1
Yes, that's true Vidal Jun 2019 #3
exactly qazplm135 Jun 2019 #32
The Thing in the White House Vidal Jun 2019 #39
problem is, with gerrymandering and voter suppression shanny Jun 2019 #2
That may be high Vidal Jun 2019 #4
Hopefully a Democratic candidate for the US Senate can get through to those voters on the fence... ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #6
Isn't Joanie (castrator) Earnst up for re-election in Iowa this time? calguy Jun 2019 #8
Yup, Joni is a Trumper..... ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #11
What's going to hurt the farmers most.. cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #13
Farmers are in a double squeeze and that will hurt Trump Vidal Jun 2019 #25
Many fields aren't even bothering to get planted it seems. Chin music Jun 2019 #30
Even along the highway to Minneapolis.... ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #36
That correlates with another number in that poll: Rs have a five point lead among white voters (n/t) Spider Jerusalem Jun 2019 #12
Only 5 points? cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #14
if that holds qazplm135 Jun 2019 #33
Probably still enough for them to hang on to the Senate, sadly (n/t) Spider Jerusalem Jun 2019 #34
I don't know about that at all qazplm135 Jun 2019 #38
1932. roamer65 Jun 2019 #5
I'm ready... LakeArenal Jun 2019 #7
Not really what that says FBaggins Jun 2019 #9
If we win by 9 percentage points Vidal Jun 2019 #19
I agree Norbert Jun 2019 #26
Sounds like the attitude is still there... Maxheader Jun 2019 #10
Healthcare and corruption Vidal Jun 2019 #20
Men overall, +2 Rethug, women overall, Democratic +19, also all regions are pro Dem except the MW Celerity Jun 2019 #15
As long as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are hacking and interfering, it doesn't matter. Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #16
Makes me think we should send pollsters to the other "interested" parties. erronis Jun 2019 #22
That would probably be more accurate. nt Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #37
LOL - Sad but true Vidal Jun 2019 #40
The Democratic politicians Scarsdale Jun 2019 #17
Good. I can't wait to rip a new one in both rump and the repugs, who obviously have to resort... SWBTATTReg Jun 2019 #18
2020 should be huge voter turnout Vidal Jun 2019 #28
We absolutely, positively must control the Senate. Vinca Jun 2019 #21
Yes indeed. Perhaps the field will thin soon and some will do exactly that. Hopefully it won't be dameatball Jun 2019 #29
You think 2018's angry voters are happy now? It's going to be a huge Blue Wave. GOTV!!! TeamPooka Jun 2019 #23
In 2020, voters are still mad Vidal Jun 2019 #27
Good news! Scurrilous Jun 2019 #24
From what I've been reading and hearing Iliyah Jun 2019 #31
Where? Vidal Jun 2019 #35
Sounds good, but no complacency... Wounded Bear Jun 2019 #41
When you listen to Pelosi, and others in the House Vidal Jun 2019 #42
 

Vidal

(642 posts)
3. Yes, that's true
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:07 AM
Jun 2019

Most people are expecting a Blue Wave and a Democrat to win the presidency. Let's make it happen!

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
32. exactly
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:55 PM
Jun 2019

people who are worried that we won't have turnout if we don't impeach or that if this candidate or that candidate isn't the nominee aren't severely underestimating the burning passion to get rid of this...thing in the WH.

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
39. The Thing in the White House
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 03:59 PM
Jun 2019

I agree with you. That's a good way to put it. He is more hated than many people realize.

 

shanny

(6,709 posts)
2. problem is, with gerrymandering and voter suppression
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:07 AM
Jun 2019

and other similar BS we have to win by about 7 points to actually "win."

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
4. That may be high
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:09 AM
Jun 2019

You are right in concept, for sure, but I think the actual number is 3 to 4 percent. Also, some states have redrawn their congressional districts which may help a little.

Another big problem is Democrats are too concentrated geographically. This is why it will be hard to win back the Senate, which we really need to do.

ProudMNDemocrat

(16,468 posts)
6. Hopefully a Democratic candidate for the US Senate can get through to those voters on the fence...
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:15 AM
Jun 2019

With the facts that the US Senate as is, is dysfunctional under Republican control.

Democratic candidates need to focus on important issues such as...Health Care, $15 an hour Minimum Wage, NO more wars, Infrastructure, Affordable Education, and so much more. Talk to the people, not over them. Ask them what is it they want Government to do.

calguy

(5,222 posts)
8. Isn't Joanie (castrator) Earnst up for re-election in Iowa this time?
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:37 AM
Jun 2019

With farming taking big hits thanks to trump's tarriffs, that should be a very winnable state for us.

ProudMNDemocrat

(16,468 posts)
11. Yup, Joni is a Trumper.....
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:55 AM
Jun 2019

She supports Trump hard core. Which will not go over well with Farmers.

Few farmers get subsidies for growing corn for Ethanol, but more are going under due to closed Markets. With Trump going after Mexico with tariffs, that is going to drive prices up for other produce we get from there, as well as Cars, appliance parts, etc.

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
25. Farmers are in a double squeeze and that will hurt Trump
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:29 PM
Jun 2019

As costs of raising crops go up, and prices from crops go down, many farmers will be losing money, so let's hope this translates into big gains for Democrats in rural areas in 2020.

Chin music

(23,001 posts)
30. Many fields aren't even bothering to get planted it seems.
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:36 PM
Jun 2019

Corns supposed to be knee high by 4th of July, and I believe 2/3rds of farmers haven't even stuck seed in the ground this year. Relying on bail-out and crop insurance I guess. There will be no market to speak of.

ProudMNDemocrat

(16,468 posts)
36. Even along the highway to Minneapolis....
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 02:52 PM
Jun 2019

The farm fields look barren. I did not see any sprouting of corn or soybeans at all.

Democratic Party candidates for the US Senate from Farm states need to drive this issue home that Trump is killing farmers, but wants their votes.

Farmers want Open markets, not tax payer handouts they are paying for.

 

Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)
12. That correlates with another number in that poll: Rs have a five point lead among white voters (n/t)
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:55 AM
Jun 2019

cannabis_flower

(3,764 posts)
14. Only 5 points?
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:02 PM
Jun 2019

Didn't they have a bigger lead among white voters in the last election? And an ever bigger lead in the 2016 election?

FBaggins

(26,693 posts)
9. Not really what that says
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:44 AM
Jun 2019

Most people measure waves by the number of seats that are picked up.

Oversimplifying a bit, if we win by the same margin as last time we will get roughly the same results and neither pick up or lose any seats.

That’s reasonably consistent with current expert expectations that we would lose about half a dozen seats in the House.

Norbert

(6,030 posts)
26. I agree
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:30 PM
Jun 2019

There were more low hanging fruit in the last election meaning republican house members losing their seats in districts leaning Democratic. Add to that the massive amount of retirements. The numbers will not be there this time around. If we could pick up 10-15 house seats it would be an awesome evening for the Democrats.

Maxheader

(4,366 posts)
10. Sounds like the attitude is still there...
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:49 AM
Jun 2019

Dems need to have a message..something to get people riled and thinking about how we're getting screwed over...new tax laws...wingers trying to take away healthcare...iran..wall..trade war...
Lots of targets..Lets go libs...



Celerity

(42,631 posts)
15. Men overall, +2 Rethug, women overall, Democratic +19, also all regions are pro Dem except the MW
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:20 PM
Jun 2019

which is Rethug +7. Also older baby boomers and up in age are Rethug +22.

If that also holds for Rump, then arffffff.



Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
16. As long as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are hacking and interfering, it doesn't matter.
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:30 PM
Jun 2019

The polls said that Clinton was going to win, although it would be close. Russia wasn't factored into those polls.

erronis

(14,941 posts)
22. Makes me think we should send pollsters to the other "interested" parties.
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:57 PM
Jun 2019

I'm sure USSRussia, Israel, MBS/SA, etc. would be happy to answer this question:

If you were to vote in the US Presidential Election in 2020, which of these candidates would you most likely support?
- TRUMP [__]
- PENCE [__]
- other []
Check here [X] if you'd like an automatic contribution to be made to your favorite (R)epuglicons.



Of course we'd need to factor in money/influence/blackmail coming from other in-country and foreign interests.

Scarsdale

(9,426 posts)
17. The Democratic politicians
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:30 PM
Jun 2019

need to do something about election fraud, voter suppression. Paper ballots should be put back in place. The gop has perfected their dirty tricks too often. The way McConnell is acting, I think the fix is already in for the next election. He just keeps on doing his dirty work, regardless of what anyone thinks. He flatly refuses to even hold a vote on voter fraud, and foreign interference in US elections. SOMETHING is just not right here.

SWBTATTReg

(21,856 posts)
18. Good. I can't wait to rip a new one in both rump and the repugs, who obviously have to resort...
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:52 PM
Jun 2019

to cheating and lying and on election interference on the part of other countries in order to win. The best laid plans of men and mice do oftentimes go astray, and I predict that those efforts in Nov. 2016 to get rump to win illegally have backfired big time, e.g., Nov. 2018 and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future (w/ the upcoming Nov 2020 election coming up especially).

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
28. 2020 should be huge voter turnout
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:32 PM
Jun 2019

it was in 2018 and there's no reason to think it will go down in 2020, and this is bad news for Trump and Rethugs.

Vinca

(50,168 posts)
21. We absolutely, positively must control the Senate.
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:54 PM
Jun 2019

I wish some of the multitude running for POTUS would consider Senate bids instead. If McConnell remains in charge (assuming a miracle doesn't happen and he's ousted by voters), it will do us little good having the presidency because he'll block everything.

dameatball

(7,380 posts)
29. Yes indeed. Perhaps the field will thin soon and some will do exactly that. Hopefully it won't be
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:35 PM
Jun 2019

too late. I don't know how Presidential campaigns transition to Senatorial campaigns, but at least a core staff should be available.

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
27. In 2020, voters are still mad
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:30 PM
Jun 2019

about what Trump and Rethugs are doing, so it should be another Blue Wave

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
31. From what I've been reading and hearing
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:41 PM
Jun 2019

Democrats have no excitement, enthusiasm, wherein the Republicans are gun ho.

Glad to see otherwise!

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
35. Where?
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 02:25 PM
Jun 2019

Where did you read that? I haven't seen it.

We do have to be careful of our information sources.

The media is making up stories to make it seem competitive.

 

Vidal

(642 posts)
42. When you listen to Pelosi, and others in the House
Sun Jun 2, 2019, 04:11 PM
Jun 2019

they are very concerned about maintaining their majority after the 2020 elections, and they are doing everything they can to make sure this happens.

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