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Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:19 AM

 

GOP Senate Majority May Be in Peril

This is a very interesting article. It is based on statistical models.

Conclusion: the Repugs senate majority is not guaranteed to hold through 2020, especially if Trump loses by a big margin.


The general thinking about the Republican Senate majority is that it has solidified to the point where Democrats are effectively shut out of gaining control of the upper chamber in 2020. But in truth, the GOP majority is in more danger than many analysts believe. Just how much jeopardy depends on how you think about the overall state of the race: If the election is going to be close, as many analysts (including myself) seem to believe, then the Senate probably leans Republican at best. And if President Trump is likely to lose, perhaps badly (as other analysts suggest), then Republicans will have a very difficult time maintaining control of the chamber.
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The bad news for the GOP is that most of the competitive seats are held by Republicans. It is still early, and the list could change if, say, Democratic Gov. (and presidential candidate) Steve Bullock switches over to the Senate race in Montana, or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe gets into the Senate race there. But for now, Democratic seats in Alabama, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire are considered potentially competitive, while Republican seats in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas have varying degrees of competitiveness.
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Looking at individual seats, we see that Republicans would not be favored to be competitive in races for any Democratic-held seats except Alabamaís, which reflects conventional wisdom. If the remaining seats did not flip in the good GOP year of 2014, it is difficult to see them flipping if a Republican presidentís job approval is at 42.5 percent.

Republicans start out as underdogs in Maine and Colorado. This probably overstates Susan Collinsí vulnerability, in the same way the simulations overstated Joe Manchinís vulnerability in 2018. On the other hand, Manchin came within three percentage points of losing his race, though his state is substantially more Republican than Maine is Democratic.

In any event, the key battlegrounds are shaping up to be Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, with outside Democratic chances in Iowa, Kentucky, and Texas.



Read More: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/06/04/is_gops_senate_majority_in_more_peril_than_we_think.html

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Arrow 34 replies Author Time Post
Reply GOP Senate Majority May Be in Peril (Original post)
Vidal Jun 2019 OP
Vidal Jun 2019 #1
NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #3
Vidal Jun 2019 #15
Funtatlaguy Jun 2019 #2
NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #4
Recursion Jun 2019 #5
Hortensis Jun 2019 #8
Generic Other Jun 2019 #27
TruckFump Jun 2019 #6
Vidal Jun 2019 #17
NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #7
Vidal Jun 2019 #18
gratuitous Jun 2019 #20
NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #23
gratuitous Jun 2019 #24
NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #25
Generic Other Jun 2019 #28
Vidal Jun 2019 #30
OrlandoDem2 Jun 2019 #9
crazytown Jun 2019 #14
SCantiGOP Jun 2019 #16
Celerity Jun 2019 #22
Vidal Jun 2019 #31
Celerity Jun 2019 #32
Hortensis Jun 2019 #10
colsohlibgal Jun 2019 #11
Vidal Jun 2019 #19
Hortensis Jun 2019 #12
DallasNE Jun 2019 #13
Vidal Jun 2019 #21
Gothmog Jun 2019 #26
Vidal Jun 2019 #29
dajoki Jun 2019 #33
Vidal Jun 2019 #34

Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:29 AM

1. Dem Challenger to Joni Ernst in Iowa

 

Given Trump's war on farmers, and his low approval in Iowa, Ernst could possibly lose in 2020. If she does the chances of Dems taking senate control go way up.

Here is an article about Ernst's latest challenger, who is very popular and might possibly win.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/06/03/theresa-greenfield-pitches-farm-kid-upbringing-in-senate-launch/

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Response to Vidal (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:42 AM

3. Good

I'd love to see her lose and lose bigly. Iowa definitely shifted from red to pink last election, though losing the governor's race was disappointing.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:09 AM

15. But Dems flipped two House seats in Iowa in 2018

 

which is a very good sign.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:30 AM

2. We must have a Prez nominee that can help win these Senate seats.

I think these four are our best shot: Colorado, Maine, Arizona, NCarolina.
The others are tough hauls: Iowa, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas.

We should hold everything except Alabama. That is, unless the GOP is stupid enuf to nominate pedophile Judge Roy Moore again.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:43 AM

4. Georgia was very close in 2014

Michelle Nunn, though a conserva-Dem, was pretty close throughout the race. I was really hoping Stacey Abrams would get into that race, but it seems like she will not.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:58 AM

5. Moore is the favorite for the nomination as of now

That's our only realistic chance in that state but by God they seem eager to try to rematch that one.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:10 AM

8. Nah, Trump just warned Moore not to run. :)

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #8)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:32 PM

27. Wait a week and Trump will say he didn't say it

"FAKE NEWS." He will act like Moore is his best bud.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:00 AM

6. I cannot be that anyone would vote for

a frickin' former District Atty who was dating H.S. girls and thought it was OK because he had the mothers' permission.

WTF????????????????

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:10 AM

17. Agree - this should give us Senate control.

 

If Trump's popularity keeps sliding we could pick up a net three, plus the Pres and VP and this should give us Senate control.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:02 AM

7. If Trump was a normal GOP candidate that "won" in 2016

the GOP was looking at picking up 8-10-12 seats in 2018 because it was an absolutely horrible map for Democrats - some analysts called it the worst map ever for any party since Senators were able to be elected by popular vote.

Instead, the GOP picked up 2 seats and it could have been worse (Ted Cruz, Marsha Blackburn, etc)

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:11 AM

18. 2018 Bodes Well for 2020

 

What you say is true and there could be some surprises in so-called red states where Senate seats are lost.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:14 AM

20. This is very true

Let it spur on our efforts for 2020. Eyes on the prize. The Senate map in 2020 is every bit as bad for Republicans as the 2018 map was for Democrats. It's imperative to get behind whoever the eventual nominee is for president, and get out the vote for 2020. There are literally millions of people with a huge stake in 2020 who aren't registered. Let's begin our efforts there.

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Response to gratuitous (Reply #20)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:35 AM

23. On the surface the map is bad for Republicans

but a lot of those Republicans up for re-election are in VERY red states - Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming and West Virginia

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #23)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:42 AM

24. True enough

But Alabama looked like a tough map, too. Then the Republican candidate shot himself in the foot with his teeny tiny pistol. Alaska has shown recent signs of wearying of Republican hegemony, as has Montana and Nebraska. Wyoming, Arkansas and South Dakota are all tough for Democrats, but a credible candidate could have a decent enough shot in Louisiana and West Virginia.

If we don't fight for every seat, we'll lose those seats. The only chance at winning is to fight.

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Response to gratuitous (Reply #24)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:55 AM

25. Yes

Hopefully, Roy Moore will lose out again in Alabama.

And, the Mississippi special election last December was closer than it should have been - hopefully, Espy can further build up an infrastructure from what he established last year and drive GOTV operations. if the economy takes a downturn, he MAY have a shot.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #25)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:37 PM

28. Roy Moore is trying to get rid of democratic opposition one block at a time

That would be me...

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Response to gratuitous (Reply #20)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:58 PM

30. Doing the work

 

yes, everything you said is true, and that's how we win in 2020

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:15 AM

9. I only wish Beto and Stacy would run for Senate in TX and GA.

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Response to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #9)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:05 AM

14. +1

(sigh)

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Response to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #9)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:10 AM

16. Agree

They need to back off the national stage and help us retake the Senate. Both are young enough to look at the White House 3 or 4 elections from now.

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Response to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #9)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:30 AM

22. 3 other big refusals were Bullock in MT (huge, he is the only Dem who would be favoured over Daines)

Hickenlooper in CO (not so bad, we still should take it), and Susan Rice in ME (hopefully one of the other 2 leading potential women can take out Concerned Collins).

MJ Hegar just might surprise us all in Texas, but even Beto or Castro would probably go down versus Cornyn. Cornyn is not Cruz, he is very popular with Rethugs. Beto's political career probably would have been killed off with 2 losses in 2 years, so I can see why he declined it.

I think one of 3 things will happen with Abrams.

1 She jumps in the race for POTUS (she has to do it soon, and I think that if Biden stays in his 32% to 38% range, Bernie falls further, and no other candidate goes above 15%, she just might)

2 She ends up VP (very possible with Biden, as she brings more states into play than Harris or Booker or Warren, etc. I do not buy into the 'Beto can deliver Texas' angle.)

3 She is going to wait until 2022 and go for a re-match for GA governor (and maybe would take a Cabinet post in the interim)

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Response to Celerity (Reply #22)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 01:01 PM

31. It's up to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee: DSCC

 

to get good candidates, and I think they are.

"Help Elect A Democratic Senate"

http://www.dscc.org/

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Response to Vidal (Reply #31)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 01:05 PM

32. I think they've done a poor job in recruiting so far, they still have time to turn it around though

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:29 AM

10. Good to read. Even McConnell is planning for potential loss,

and that says far more than 100 articles claiming they can't lose. Pointing to most common patterns of the past in this era of insanity.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:30 AM

11. Please Let It Be So

Than we could tell McConnell to sit down and shut up, make that Turtle go back in itís shell.

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #11)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:12 AM

19. Nothing would be sweeter than to send McConnell home

 

we have to do this to have a chance to pass any good laws we need, such as healthcare and taxes on the rich.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 09:37 AM

12. Also, "Expert says Senate will be up for grabs in 2020"

Elaine Kamarck, a fellow at the left-leaning Brookings Institution, said Friday that Democrats will have a better chance of winning the Senate majority in 2020. "We always knew that it was hard [for Democrats] to take the Senate, ... That will not be the case in 2020. There are more Republican seats up. There's the excitement of a presidential [race], and we've got a big age gap in the electorate these days. The more young people vote, the more Democratic outcomes are, and we're going to see that, I think, in 2020," she continued.

"So Democrats have a lot to look forward to," she added. Kamarck's comments come as new polling shows Democrats feeling increasingly optimistic about their future after their midterm victories. ...

If Gov. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) holds his lead in Florida and defeats Sen. Bill Nelson, Republicans are likely to have a 53-47 edge in this year's Senate. In 2020, the best Democratic chances for gains are in Maine and Colorado, which are the only states won by Hillary Clinton in the last presidential race that have GOP incumbents up for reelection. Democrats will also be defending Sen. Doug Jones's seat in Alabama, which could be tough to hold. Other possible targets for Democrats in 2020 include Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and David Perdue (R-Ga.).

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/417154-expert-says-senate-will-be-up-for-grabs-in-2020




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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 10:29 AM

13. Another Factor To Consider

The current projection on GDP growth is a measly 1% so a recession is looming. And that forecast was made before the Mexico tariffs. The Feds hands have been tied so they have limited tools. Just saying.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 11:24 AM

21. Poll: Biden leads Trump by double digits in battleground North Carolina

 

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:03 PM

26. If there is a blue wave we may flip the senate

We have to defeat trump and do our best to flip the senate

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #26)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:51 PM

29. Agree - a Big Blue Wave in 2020 could put Dems back in control of both houses of Congress

 

I totally agree with you Gothmog, and the news out of North Carolina is great for our chances to pick up a seat there. It always comes down to individual states of course but a Big Blue Wave in 2020 could put Dems back in control of both houses of Congress and the presidency which would be fantastic.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 01:35 PM

33. Yeah, but we can't forget the cheating n/t

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Response to dajoki (Reply #33)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 04:21 PM

34. we have to be aware and deal with cheating properly

 

if Dems don't know this we might lose. we have to be on top of this.

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