No, Trump does not "win" if the Senate refises to remove him from office.

[Tom Rinaldo]

Trump wins if the House refuses to indict him. The public expects Republicans to fight tooth and nail to defend Trump as their "Dear Leader". The public expects Democrats to fight tooth and nail to expose Trump as constitutionally unfit for office. The public knows that Republicans rarely blink in a showdown. They are not as sure about Democrats. All if it, impeachment and the subsequent Senate trial, is a prelude to the finals, which will be the Fall 2020 presidential elections. It is all a key part of making the case for whether or not Trump deserves to be returned to office, and indirectly but almost as important it is all a part of demonstrating which political party has the strength needed to lead the United States in a troubled world.

The public assumes Democrats will attack Trump and that Republicans will defend him. What they don't know is the literal evidence against Trump, since Barr did everything in his power to mislead the public about the content of Mueller's report. Since Democrats control the House we can be assured that the strongest possible case for removing Trump from office will be presented, if they so choose, to the American people in the highest public profile forum possible, formal Impeachment hearings. An Impeachment inquest is to a Congressional oversight hearing what the World Series is to a regular season face off between the exact same two teams. The same star pitchers take the mound for each side regardless, but the viewership for a World Series game dwarfs that for a mid season match up. The case against Trump can be made in an impeachment hearing like it can be in no other forum.

And when the trial moves to the Senate the Republicans will be utterly unable to undo the damage done to Trump. All they can do is what their power allows them, which is to refuse to convict. They can refuse to follow the evidence to a natural conclusion, but they can not obscure that evidence any longer once the impeachment hearings have fully unveiled it. And that is the set up to the 2020 elections. Which party defended our constitution, and which party undermined it?

Trump has shown an ability to win by losing because he never shies away from battle or accepts defeat. He just keeps pushing and that to many people's minds makes him a strong leader. He lost the battle with Congress over his Wall, but that did not cost him his image as a fighter. He is pushing for it anyway, doing everything in his perceived power to win regardless of congressional defeat. It would be the same for Democrats if we stood firm in defending the Constitution even if Republicans refused to uphold it. We do not lose if impeachment ultimately fails in the Senate. We then take it to the people in 2020, the fight goes on. Democrats only lose if, despite the evidence and the power that we control, we don't even bring the impeachment fight to the Senate.

[Pantagruel]

1. To me it's win-win

We must be relentless, agreed, but we also should be thorough and follow the processes. First we need to uncover the evidence, remove the redactions and effectively serve the subpoenas.
Pelosi knows the procedure and she's also in the best position to judge the timing of each step.Having daily revelations come out right up to the week of the 2020 vote is my dream.Second guessing Pelosi out of our impatience will be self-defeating.

[CaptainTruth]

2. +1

[trev]

6. +1

[Hortensis]

12. Yes, well, 200 members of our house caucus DISAGREE.

Of those who are saying they agree with you, only some are sincere. Others are bloviating for the folk back home, and some are power seekers causing trouble for their own advantage, including blue dogs, who really should be primaried next year.

Not a good crowd to lie down with.

Especially when we have such big, serious work to do.

[PSPS]

3. LOL "We then take it to the people in 2020"

That's really become a humorous catch phrase by now. The fact is that the media (Fox, of course, but others will follow as always) will be the ones to "take it to the people" and they will just parrot the "total vindication" spin their GOP guests will spout non-stop.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. They already did that, remember?

When Barr released his three page memo. The difference is that time FOX claimed total vindication WITHOUT the public ever seeing the actual evidence. FOX will do what FOX will do. Trump will hold his hardest core base. That will not win him reelection in the face of his demonstrated unfittness for office. I do not fear an election where volumes one and two of Mueller's Report are widely known and debated.

[TCJ70]

5. Trump is the kind of person you don't back down from...

...because once you do, it's over. He's the personification of "give an inch, take a mile". Beginning impeachment proceedings is the best way forward if Dems take control of the narrative as much as they can. The house is not controllable by Trump. He can't stop them. Why would you hold anything back in your arsenal against him? Because Republicans will do what they're expected to do?

By not impeaching, he'll be allowed to continue unchecked in his witch hunt/hoax narrative without any actions by the Dems to counter it. Even if the Republicans don't convict him (which they won't), they're already on the record, before any hearings or very public airing of the evidence, as being completely allied with him.

I'm not sure people expect the Dems to go for impeachment. They let past presidents go without for war crimes. Taking bold action is the best way for Dems to draw a contrast between themselves and the Republicans for people who, for whatever reason, are still on the fence and think both parties are the same.

[Martin Eden]

7. "Trump wins if the House refuses to indict him."

Agreed, and the Democratic Party wins if a very compelling case for impeachment is made because the answer to your question ...

"Which party defended our constitution, and which party undermined it?"

… will be pretty damn clear-cut for nearly everyone outside the MAGA minions.

[yonder]

8. Another thoughtful thread, TR. Thanks.

[stopdiggin]

9. he may not win, but our side would be equally bloodied

You keep imagining a scenario where, "No one can refute, no one can deny .. The evidence speaks for itself ..." This in itself denies precisely the world we live in today. Had you not noticed that Fox, Sanders, Barr, Giuliani, Conway .. the vast majority of Republican congress, and apparently about 35% of the general public, have had no trouble at all denying that the sky is blue .. and that the president has never done ANYTHING wrong? Witchhunt! Welcome to the world of "alternative" facts. How do we go from here to a place where the Republican senators all just stand around, faces down, shuffling their feet, muttering vaguely worded excuses, until ultimately voting to exonerate? You imagine, "when the trial moves to the Senate the Republicans will be utterly unable to undo the damage done to Trump." Of COURSE they can Have you never seen a defense attorney tearing apart a prosecution? And a proven segment is out there cheering them in sliming the opposition every step way. Alternative facts! Any vision of a "and then the scales fell from their eyes" scenario is (I think) purely fantasy. (IMO) the only realistic path to an impeachment comes after gaining (at least modest) Republican support. I know that disappoints many, but ..

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. I envision a potential scenario where Trump is free to stay totally on offense

One in which the hottest congressional hearings in town take place in the Senate where the deep state attempt to take down the president is probed in all of its fact free glory. That is what will fill the media political void if Democrats don't move on impeachment.

Trump chose his political strategy, to feed constant red meat to his base. They live in a fact free zone and will remain in it as long as Trump remains president. He has that 35% of the vote locked up. But you may notice that his approval ratings fluctuate from the mid 30's to the mid 40's. He needs to secure all of those voters in that fluctuating 10% and then some in order to be reelected. Those numbers can and will move against Trump once it is understood that no, AG BARR not withstanding, the actual Mueller Report did not exonerate Trump.

[stopdiggin]

11. not calling for retreat

Well. I don't see it as being a strictly either/or equation. But I understand your point of view. I don't see (and am certainly not advocating) the Dems just folding tents and walking away. And I don't think that's going to happen. They WILL keep hammering away. But we need more than what we have now .. in both evidence and support (the Mueller report was such a huge disappointment) .. and I look at the impeachment process as the final stroke, not the run up.

[Baltimike]

13. Yes, he does. LITERALLY....yes, he does. nt

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. If the sole point is to remove him from office prior to the election, you are technically right

But in this instance there are two juries and two means to remove him from office.The first jury, the Senate, has been tampered with. Jurors have been threatened with the loss of their jobs, Trump promises to go after them should they vote the wrong way. That jury is compromised and most people know it. The second jury is the voting public. Democrats can head into the election as the party that stood by the constitution, not subverted it. That "second jury" will have seen and heard the evidence during the impeachment hearings. And neither Trump nor the Republicans will win.