Welp, that's ugly news for freight trucking

[Recursion]

Last edited Wed Jun 19, 2019, 09:20 AM - Edit history (1)

Yikes

EDIT: here's the data page I screenshot from:

https://www.dat.com/industry-trends/trendlines

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. Mostly due to Trump's Trade Tariffs.

With less imports coming in, no sales of Farm commodities to take to Market, what did they expect?

[Recursion]

2. New England Motor Freight and Falcon Transport have gone bankrupt already

Several other regional operators are saying they may have to soon too. Particularly if there's an oil price shock (cough cough Iran cough cough).

[ProudMNDemocrat]

4. Expect to see less 18 wheelers on the Highways......

in the coming days as threats of war, more tariffs take affect.


With no product to ship, prices go up as demand increases. Stupid Trump.He cannot blame this on Obama or Hillary Clinton.

[Captain Zero]

14. I think prices would be going up due to drops in supply

But people will start to get stupid and hoard as well which will exacerbate the problem.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. Usual cause of drop in shipping is less demand, which causes prices to drop.

Further, more empty trucks means shipping costs might drop a little too.

[Recursion]

41. The problem is corn and soy harvests are going to be abysmal

And fresh veg harvests aren't going to be much better, thanks to the weather. It's an interesting situation where the demand with respect to last year is just collapsed.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

44. China not buying soy counteracts global warm drop in US supply. Corn & other prices might go up.

Droughts in the west/midwest and rapid heating of western Arctic are exacerbated by global warming which is pushing warm Pacific storms into the western Arctic.

Right at the time tRump wants to sock it to poor people who depend on corn for food by opening up 15% ethyl alcohol for summer fuel, raising corn prices.

[Wounded Bear]

51. Produce prices are already up where I am...

Way up. Some items have doubled since first of year.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

18. Fewer 18 wheelers, less trucking.

A truck is countable, like a grain of sand.

Trucking is an aggregate, like a pail with more or less sand.

[Achilleaze]

3. republicans get full blame

Everyone is saying that.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

5. And Democrats running for office down the ticket NEED to stress that......

Everything we buy, usually comes by Truck.

[Achilleaze]

7. "If you got it, a truck brought it."

Ancient trucker slogan...

[awesomerwb1]

50. That picture is awesome

Is that Las Vegas in the distance? More info. if you have it please. Thx

[A HERETIC I AM]

59. That would be Primm, NV, on I-15, right at the state line

Here's a Google Earth Street View pic of the same spot;

https://goo.gl/maps/t3LqCM85qzJuSkmf7

Las Vegas is about 30 miles straight ahead.

[awesomerwb1]

66. Thank you!

[safeinOhio]

6. Shut it down.

See how trump would handle a strike by some of his base. A national strike and what's he going to do, call up the National Guard to drive the trucks?

[TEB]

9. I'd love to see

A national shutdown only medical supplies get thru that would slap the shit out of those in dc especially the orange moron.

[Farmer-Rick]

17. Yup a nation wide strike is the only way to get the capitalist kings

To kick Traitor Trump and his sex worker out of the White House. Affect their pocket books, make it hard for them to continue their cons and manipulations to steal our national wealth.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. Far from the only way. . . . nt

[Farmer-Rick]

24. Well, what has stopped the ever increasing destruction?

What has stopped the deregulation, monopolies, the tax give aways to corporations and the richest people in America? What has slowed the corporate control of every facet of American markets? What stops the bailouts to the rich while the poor and middle class suffer endlessly. What has given us back our well paid jobs, pensions and annual raises? What has stopped the rampant corruption of our government? What has made our voting system fair and carefully controlled? What has given everyone healthcare? What has stopped global warming?

I've seen no change in America from the route to consolidate all our national wealth in a few people and make our society and planet uninhabitable for the majority.

Seems it just gets worse and worse since the 1970's.

We've got to do something different.

Any ideas?

[uponit7771]

8. Please translate Tia

[Recursion]

10. Spot orders down 62%

That means people are asking for 62% fewer freight truck deliveries than they were this time last year.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

21. I think it means fewer last-minute orders for shipping, not total down 62%.

A 62% drop in total truck traffic for more than a week would be front page news everywhere except that it would be caused by and part of a much wider economic calamity.

The other figures are more worrying, I think. They do seem to indicate a broader decline in shipping, comparing May 2018 to May 2019.

[Recursion]

31. Right, "asking for".

Long-term contract figures are different.

[TheBlackAdder]

53. In any event, that's a bad sign, as companies are now falling back to strategic order planning.

.

Generally, when that happens they are cautious about locking in money, except when required.
This means companies are enforcing more strategic ordering and could possibly be killing some projects.

This might also signal a downturn in shorter-term construction projects, and consumer whims.

.

[Bear Creek]

11. Can see it

Bare shelves in the stores. The stores try to cover it up but you can tell. Many of them will be closing soon. But I'm afraid that most republicans will not wake up until they go and nothing is on that shelf at all or the price of an item they depend on is so high they can't afford it.

[Recursion]

12. The latter is more likely, particularly as deportations hit the harvest labor force

That's going to be a double whammy

Not that there will be literally nothing, but that the three tubs of strawberries will cost $35 each.

[Bear Creek]

13. We will have to see

They keep touting wall street gains are from trump. But Forbes and Wall Street Journal say differently. The democrats need to start running ads how Trumps antics are effecting average Americans the only way to fight him is dominate the news and social media. But do not name him.

[panader0]

49. 90% of stock is owned by the upper 10%.

It's a rich persons game.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

15. Sounds like horrible news for retail.

With many retail shops operating on thin margins already, this could take them over the edge.

They can only survive a limited number of lean or losing months prior to the holiday season.

[Recursion]

16. We've been in Retail Apocalypse for years

Everybody talks about manufacturing jobs, but we've lost more retail jobs this century than manufacturing.

[oldsoftie]

26. Bare shelves in the stores? Where do you live? I've seen none of that.

[Boxerfan]

73. Our local produce is down to one brand of (*) when there used to be 6

I think the Mexican produce is being sold to other countries buyers-and long standing agreements have been broken.

Definitely supply shortages here on many produce items.

[Codeine]

29. That may be a regional issue.

I do sales to both chain stores and independent markets of all sizes (I call on twenty or so stores a day most days) and there is nothing like that going on in our area.

[Recursion]

42. If we've learned anything since 2008

It's that the US economy is still regional

[Bear Creek]

62. Not reginal

Travel alot end up in stores. Also worked retail for years. The signs of closure is there including America's largest employer

[lark]

22. drumpfs destruction of America in action, implementing Russias' plans for our demise.

He's a lazy stupid piker or the reduction of our economy and world status would be far worse.

[Honeycombe8]

23. Not sure what those numbers are referring to specifically...

but I take it that the numbers mean that trucking in the U S is significantly down?

I wonder what the cause is, specifically? Looks like flatbed trucking is the hardest hit. What's shipped by flatbed?

Trump has been a disaster for the country.

[A HERETIC I AM]

40. What is shipped by flatbed? Whew....got a few minutes?

Typical flatbed loads tend to be large, LONG items and/or product that doesn't necessarily need to be out of the weather, although most flatbed operators can cover their loads with tarps.

Just off the top of my head;

Finished lumber products - stacks of plywood and 2X4's, for example
Roofing shingles on pallets
Steel and other types of pipe and tubing
Steel plate and other types of steel stock, from bar stock to angle iron and so on.
Coils of steel
Aluminum plate and extrusions
Heavy equipment, everything from Skid-Steer loaders to backhoes to bulldozers
Watercraft and snowmobiles in their crates
Large air conditioning units
Electrical utility equipment - transformers and such
Wire and cable on large coils
Conveyor belting on large rolls or coils.
Any item in a wooden crate that can withstand being in the weather.
Military equipment, including containers of ammunition and explosives


The list goes on much, MUCH longer.

[eppur_se_muova]

45. Sounds like construction and heavy mfg'ing mostly.

Maybe that's what happens when your great "infrastructure plan" is to pretend you're doing something about infrastructure.

[A HERETIC I AM]

47. Typically pre-consumer items, yeah.

Things that a manufacturer buys to make the products YOU buy.
Along with lots and lots of other industrial items.

[UpInArms]

25. Related story: Tariffs may have big implications on trucking industry

https://www.wdtn.com/news/u-s-world/tariffs-may-have-big-implications-on-trucking-industry/amp/

CNBC) – As the trade war with China continues, another industry is taking a hard hit: trucking.

Trucking companies and drivers are reporting key revenue losses throughout 2019.

The daily rates for trucking, known as the spot market, have seen declines since the tariffs went into effect in 2018.

Retailers and manufacturers front-loaded shipments into the United states at the end of 2018 to get ahead of tariffs.

With their warehouses and stock rooms full, those companies are in the driver’s seat.

... more at link ...

[oldsoftie]

27. So the shipping is down because companies over loaded early to beat price increases?

I guess that would make good business sense
But eventually those supplies will have to be replenished with the higher priced goods

[GetRidOfThem]

28. Coming from a transport economist (me)

That is a very smart and astute observation.

And yes, this is a potential indicator of trouble ahead.

Thank you for sharing!

[panader0]

30. Truckers got fucked by not being able to deduct expenses

like food and lodging from their taxes. They are making less than last year.

[Recursion]

39. Yeah, I remember thinking when I saw the "tax cut" bill

"They exempted owner/operator transport, right?"

Nope.

[Sgent]

70. Onwner operators

can still deduct on Schedule C (like that should have been doing all along).

Employed truckers are the ones that got screwed. There are some ways around it, but it requires a lot more paperwork and help from the employer.

[moniss]

32. That's

good info to have. Do you know the source/site/publication?

[Recursion]

34. DAT data

https://www.dat.com/industry-trends/trendlines

Thanks; I edited the OP to include the source

[MuseRider]

33. This is surprising to me

as I have found just in the last few months that it is getting difficult to get around because of so many more trucks. I go on a 30 minute drive every couple of weeks because I have appointments in a town close by. That trip now takes me 45 - 50 minutes just to get to the town because our highway is clogged with trucks. 2 weeks ago I had to go 2 days in a row and counted on my slow way home. There were not quite 2 cars to every truck I saw and since they tend to bunch up it was an unpleasant trip home. Gonna make the trip this afternoon and see if it has changed.

[denbot]

35. I run mostly reefer loads, and so far I'm staying busy..

The trend does not bode well though..

[Recursion]

36. That's interesting

Probably a lot of regional variability

[denbot]

37. I text'd that table to my boss and asked him if he was worried..

He said that he has been feeling the rates for the last 8 months. He says it’s really bad rate wise.

I was speaking to his buddy/partner a month or so ago, and he had told me the dealers, and shops we work with are all expecting a year similar to 07-08 in terms of truck sales, and maintenance spending.

Personally I can use the home time if it all goes to shit.

[Recursion]

38. Reefer may feel it after the summer

If the weather (and mass deportations) wind up meaning a lot of spring and summer planting didn't get done

[moniss]

46. Thanks

for the sourcing and yes there is regional variability but overall trending is down across the board. I would also point out that I use DAT and I can say that their numbers are usually very conservative. The actual reality is that markets like the Midwest/Plains States/Auto Belt are collapsing worse than the industry trends reflected by DAT. Small operations haul the vast majority of freight in this country every day and a man or woman with a $3,000.00 per month payment on a truck and trailer is staring disaster in the face. So they keep hauling cheaper and cheaper freight just to have cash flow to make the payment but it's a downward spiral because our freight system in this country is ruled by freight brokers and they keep offering lower and lower rates for loads because they know they have leverage. They pocket the difference. They typically run as pimps. I've personally sat in their offices and heard them work both ends against each other for their benefit even during a good economy. As an example a trucker calls the broker asking if he has loads. The broker says "No I don't it's real dead right now and if I do find you something it will be cheap". Five minutes later a shipper with a load calls the broker and the broker says "I'll try and find you a truck but there's hardly any around right now so if I do you're going to probably have to pay a little higher rate than normal." So the broker gets the shipper to agree to a high rate. then the broker calls the trucker back who had called in earlier. He dangles the load and says the following "Well I found you something but it's really cheap and it's way below normal rates but it's all there is." So now this desperate trucker is faced with a small amount of cash flow or nothing. the broker pockets the difference after having lied to both ends of the transaction they are a part of. Many times the broker is making as much or more than the trucker actually doing the work. This freight system in America is dysfunctional to say the least but it keeps going because there are thousands and thousands of average people every day who have few options to try and see a way up the economic ladder and so they turn to the siren song of owning their own business/truck. The finance companies will OK the deal with little to no money down even with iffy credit. If for some reason you are rejected then there are large freight companies who run a scam of "lease to own" where you lease the equipment from them and haul their freight exclusively. Supposedly you'll make plenty of money but most don't catch on that they are also determining how much you get paid for hauling the load. Because of normal expenses and the low pay few are ever successfully paying off the truck and then owning it but of course they don't show you that up front because then people wouldn't do the deal and haul their freight. If you realize you've been scammed and want to walk away they take the truck and you lose everything you paid into it.

[Recursion]

48. I've only worked loading trucks but that sounds about right

None of this gets into the fact that in 5, 10 years those brokers are going to have their own fleets of self-driving trucks.

[moniss]

60. Yes indeed

they all seem to want to be moving in the direction of having a low(er) paid person in the truck just as a "minder" for the technology.

[A HERETIC I AM]

52. With all due respect, the scenario you outlined above....

while not all fiction, by any means, it is not the case that "Small operations haul the vast majority of freight in this country every day" if by saying that you mean independent owner operators who own their own truck AND trailer.

OO's are only about 10% of the total drivers on the road today.

The vast majority of over-the-road truckers in this country are company drivers who operate a truck owned by the firm they are employed by, they are typically paid by the mile and their fuel and maintenance expenses are covered by the firm.

This idea that most freight is hauled by some independent trying to make his monthly payment is nonsense.

[moniss]

58. You need

to not read in to what I said. Small operations. That encompasses companies with just a small number of trucks. If you think that most of the freight is being hauled by JB Hunt etc. and large carriers with thousands and thousands of trucks then you are incorrect. I've been in this business from many facets for many years. Furthermore I was addressing the OP from the standpoint of the small operators. Additionally your definition of who is hauling the freight is faulty because a one or two truck operation where the entity has their own carrier authority is not typically counted as owner-operator although their cost realities for equipment etc. are still there. This is not a discussion about company drivers since they have little to do with impacting freight rates or freight volume. Check with OOIDA if you want to ask questions about the reality of it all. ATA propaganda has been shot down long ago.

[A HERETIC I AM]

64. "Many years"

OK....and so have I. I've been involved in truck transportation and the trucking industry for 30 years and drove my first truck in 1978.

Here's what you said;

Small operations haul the vast majority of freight in this country every day and a man or woman with a $3,000.00 per month payment on a truck and trailer is staring disaster in the face.

Which to most people with reasonable reading comprehension skills appears to insinuate that the "vast majority" of freight is hauled by a "small operator" trying to scrape together their monthly nut.

OK...where is the line drawn? What is the difference between a small operator and the next step up? 2 trucks? 5? 10?

I didn't cite the American Trucking Association, nor did I quote them, so I'm not sure why you would make that reference, and the Owner Operators Independent Drivers Association has their own agenda as well, so relying on a single source for this type of data is unwise.

As I said, what you wrote isn't entirely fiction, but YOUR anecdotal evidence on how freight is moved is not reflected in the reality of nationwide transport that I see every single day.

And I've been driving over the road since the national speed limit was 55.

[moniss]

69. So you

change operations to operator and then fight using that change. I get the tactic. The reason I cite the ATA is not because you did but because I did. Get it? I made reference to their BS propaganda about how freight moves in this country. You obviously have something about OOIDA since you give this negative cast about them having an "agenda". The members of OOIDA have fought long and hard for the small operations/operators in this country. I don't care when you drove your first or last truck. Since you were driving since the double nickel you started long after I did. You didn't take my polite correction of you reading in to what I was talking about and not recognizing that I said small operations and not small operator but you insist on coming back with that. You add nothing to this conversation.

[A HERETIC I AM]

71. Fair enough

“Uncle”
I’ll defer to your superior knowledge of all things trucking.

BTW, as someone as old and experienced as you would like me to believe, next time you feel compelled to write that many sentences, try forming paragraphs.

[FakeNoose]

43. I still see lots of UPS and Fedex trucks, but those are local deliveries of course

My brother is a long-haul truck driver (18 wheelers) and he's been looking for work for over 2 years.

[A HERETIC I AM]

54. He's been looking for work for 2 years?!?

Really?

Is he looking for a particular specialized discipline, like heavy/oversized for instance?

Hells bells, my firm is hiring as well as all of the other trucking firms on the street our yard is on.

I hate to say this, but your brother is either being VERY picky (which is his right, don't get me wrong), has something on his record that most firms don't like, he doesn't have enough experience or he is not really trying very hard to get on with a trucking company.

There are more trucking jobs available right now than you can shake a stick at.

Seriously, PM me if you think he might be interested in looking into the company I work with.

And FWIW, when you see a UPS or a FEDEX tractor trailer on the road, it is usually going intercity, if not interstate, so that isn't "local deliveries"

[FakeNoose]

56. Well, he's got other problems holding him back

... but I'm not kidding, he does have over 15 years' experience driving cross-country.

My brother has a few health problems and he's close to retirement age (63 this year) and I think he probably shouldn't be on the road any more. He tells me he's looking for work, but I don't know if I can believe it. The local trucking companies in the Pittsburgh area (like Pitt-Ohio Express) would have hired him for sure.

[A HERETIC I AM]

57. OK...Fair enough, and I sympathize, really.

I turned 60 in May and have been doing this the better part of 30 years, so I get it, trust me.

I would suggest he look into applying to a US Mail contractor. That's what I do, it is mostly (but not always) "Drop and Hook", the pay is typically union scale and most of these firms offer good benefits.

Just a thought. Again, I have a pretty good understanding of health problems, particularly if any of them are related to his job and as such, he has my sympathy and understanding.

I wish him all the best.


Edit to add that it is very possible he could stay local hauling mail, as well. Meaning up to 500 mile day trips but home every night.

[FakeNoose]

63. Thanks, that's a good suggestion

Good luck to you!

[Blue_Tires]

55. That can't be right...

Republicans told me that Trump was going to protect these jobs?

[BSdetect]

61. Needs to be spread widely

Does the msm even get these points?

[GusBob]

65. Very interesting. This is what I come to DU for.

And thanks for not posting it as a "link to tweet"

I wonder, is their any similar information on cargo container shipping (ocean) or rail shipping (Train) that may correlate to this?

[maxsolomon]

67. Good(ish) news for the Earth, though - less carbon being burned.

Yes, I know this means that trucking jobs and families are hurting as a result.

Things have to change.

[liberaltrucker]

68. Glad I retired 10 years ago

nt

[Xolodno]

72. Cardboard Box manufacturers will be hit next.

Less goods to ship, less boxes needed. And that hits both online and retail stores....which will be dialing back its labor costs.

And all those people will have less discretionary income and will spend less. When they do that, it snowballs to every other industry which then has to cut back. And boom, just like that, the economy is contracting.