no chance 38 states would approve a Succession Amendment, and tbf, I think Blue states
will leave before Red ones, IF Rumps wins again, we fail to take the Senate back, he takes the SCOTUS to 7-2 or 8-1 hard RW, the Rethugs manipulate the 2020 Census to further allow another decade of gerrymandering and vote suppression, and the Federal court system (now stacked from top to bottom with RWNJ's) allows the Rethugs to roll back most or all of the post-Brown v Board civil rights law (including Brown itself), and tries to do it nationwide, not just limited to the regressive Red states.
California and other Blue states will never submit to a Gilead-lite theocratic nation attempt, and this process (if it goes as hellishly as I aid out above) will lead to succession movements by the mid 2030's at the latest. By then 70% of the Senate will be controlled by 30% of the nation, a 30% who are far older, whiter, less-educated, more reactionary, RW, fundie xian, etc, than the other 30%. The EC will also be eve more skewed to empower the cons as well.
The seeds are all laid into the soil already for this dystopian nightmare to become more than an ultra-remote possibility, especially if Rum wins in 2020 and we fail at retaking the Senate in 2020 or 2022.