The Siren Song of early polls will sink a Dem's candidacy for the president

[Yavin4]

Democratic pols should not be lulled into making poor campaign decisions based on very early polling data. The campaign for the presidency has not begun in earnest, and once it does, Trump, the Republican party, and Fox News will do anything and everything it can to pull the Democratic nominee to same level as Trump. The tried and true, "lesser of two evils bullshit" that we've been dealing with since 2000.

Second, Trump's support is being understated in the polling data much like it was in 2016. People are not comfortable telling a pollster that they would vote for Trump, but once in that booth, voters, in particular Republicans, will pull that lever for Trump. For reference, see the Bradley Effect. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect)

Finally, and this is the most important point, early polls may give the Democrats the idea to go for a huge victory by moving to the middle. This coming election is about who can get their base motivated and out to vote. Using polling data to go after moderate voters--ignoring the base--- will be another critical mistake. Trump's base and his party will show up to vote for Trump. There are no moderates. If the Dem base is not highly energized and motivated to vote, the Dem will lose.

[Turin_C3PO]

1. The bottom line is that, if we turn out, we win.

Demographics are not on the Republican’s side.

There are centrist votes to be had. That 8% who voted Obama twice then Trump in 2016. We must win them back.

[Bradshaw3]

2. No, a Dem can do both

There are swing voters - the midterms proved that - and a Democratic candidate can get them and motivate threir base. It's likely going to be a close election again and you need every vote you can get. This either/or take on the election is not smart strategy and will cost the Dems the election if they follow it.

[Butterflylady]

3. That's bull, period

Three years of doing absolutely nothing and losing his support daily. His supporters are already getting board. He has nothing new.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Tend to agree!